New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[wbrocks67]

I'm curious how long it will take to count the write-ins and what Dem turnout will even look like. I mean, I assume if we get a result that's like 80% Write-Ins, you can guarantee that at least ~75% of those are for Biden.

So I assume for a few hours at least we'll likely just have "Write-In" as the winner until the names are actually counted.

[wbrocks67]

Should we expect an exit poll on the Dem side?

[wbrocks67]

I think we'll get 250.000 votes on the Republican side and 50.000 on the Democratic side.

I think not less than 200k and no more than 300k for Republicans.

For Democrats, it could be as low as 30k, but as high as 100k, with many write-in votes for Biden.

I am not sure if write-in-Biden manages to win NH next week, but it's possible. There's a possibility that we'll get a total number of write-in votes cast on election night, without any names being counted first. But 99% of the total number will be Biden write-ins.

If the results are 42% Phillips, 36% "write-ins", 16% Williamson and 6% other candidates - we'll know that Biden received about 35% in NH.

Nah, should be considerably lower than that.

Btw, who do you people think will get the most write-ins other than Biden? I would guess Sanders or possibly even Trump.

I mean, maybe not 99%, but at least like 95%. If someone really wants to write-in Sanders or someone else, I doubt they're even going to bother to vote when they already have two other protest vote candidates on the ballot anyway.

[wbrocks67]

Marist has a NH poll out today; oddly they didn't poll the actual primary, but they did do favorability among Republicans/Republican-leaning Independents:

Trump fav: 75/23 (+52)
DeSantis fav: 53/26 (+27)
Haley fav: 45/38 (+7)

Shows the uphill battle Haley faces; she has a ceiling.

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Marist-Poll_NH-NOS-and-Tables_202401181559.pdf

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AFJacobs/status/1748375825999651041?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1748407007445479494

[wbrocks67]

If Dem turnout actually reaches 100,000, I'd call that a success. Curious what it will look like - the grassroots Write-in Biden campaign seems surprisingly robust all things considered.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1748762660437401853

[wbrocks67]

Republican primary results will be released first in NH.

Democratic results will be delayed by several hours, because of the handcount of Biden write-in votes.

While virtually all Republican results are expected by midnight, some Democratic results are also expected by midnight.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/01/19/new-hampshire-primary-results-delay/72240040007/

I'm confused, so we're not going to get results until write-ins are counted? So we're not going to get first results and see like "Write-In" leading but they're going to withhold results until they count write-ins, and then release numbers with names? I.e. we wouldn't get results until "Joe Biden" actually leads, and not "Write-In"?

[wbrocks67]

This is the issue with Dean - he's truly just an a$$hole.

https://twitter.com/ColinGBooth/status/1748763729129320817?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AlexThomp/status/1749432442258083882

[wbrocks67]

Visibility has seemingly been very strong for the write-in campaign in the last week:

https://twitter.com/GranitePost/status/1749436611513790868

[wbrocks67]

lol

https://twitter.com/PoliticusSarah/status/1749793836858036604?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1749799998370521178?s=20

[wbrocks67]

This is Bedford. Honestly not bad turnout for Ds all things considered.

https://twitter.com/tomlobianco/status/1749817658487509201

[wbrocks67]

Is it possible that race gets called within mins after poll closing, or will it not be like that this time around?

Hm, I think if Trump is winning something like 60-38 like the Suffolk poll shows, it may be called close to polling if the exit polling bares that out.

Edison is definitely doing exit polling today, but i wonder if they're just doing GOP. Would be really nice if they also did Dem.

[wbrocks67]

Bedford 11am update

Total registered voters: 15,613
Undeclared: 5,973 (38.3%)
Republican: 5,731 (36.7%)
Democrat: 3,909 (25.1%)

Ballots cast:
R: 1,987 (81%)
D: 453 (19%)

https://twitter.com/bensiegel/status/1749829122002469095/photo/2

[wbrocks67]

In the end, I just don't see the path forward for Nikki Haley


Because even of she wins today trump is still going to beat her in South Carolina. Her best shot is to hope that a win in New Hampshire somehow changes a lot of republican voters' minds about Trump, but I'm very skeptical that something like that will ever happen

But even if everything goes right and by some miracle she beats trump for the republican nomination does anybody in their right mind think trump and his supporters are going to gracefully accept that fact that she won Especially since trump has already been using birtherism attacks against her.

There is no path forward for her. She'll lose SC worse than she will lose NH. She probably has the cash to keep going if she wants to stand as a default alternative to Trump, but she isn't beating him head to head.

I feel like a broken record but, IF she pulls an upset, there is clearly a path forward for her.  Media shifts to the "we have a race" narrative and  Republicans who are coalescing around Trump suddenly have another viable option.  On top of which, Trump's legal troubles start to add up.  And if the courts intervene and really barr Trump, she will be the GOP candidate.  She might even do better in her home state, which she won before and knows well.  Of course, for all that to happen, we need close to, or over 300,000 to turn out in the Republican primary in NH today.

Not at all. The only reason she has a 5% chance in NH is because of Independents who can pick a GOP ballot. Republican voters go strongly for Trump and that will be the case going further in nearly all of the contests.

[wbrocks67]

Bedford 11am update

Total registered voters: 15,613
Undeclared: 5,973 (38.3%)
Republican: 5,731 (36.7%)
Democrat: 3,909 (25.1%)

Ballots cast:
R: 1,987 (81%)
D: 453 (19%)

https://twitter.com/bensiegel/status/1749829122002469095/photo/2

If D turnout is only 1/5 of the total, then it won't be much higher than 70k.

350k total

  70k D primary
280k R primary

Not sure why we'd gleam statewide turnout from one single area.

[wbrocks67]

I'd argue the opposite. You'd imagine undeclared voters who would normally vote in the dem primary would be more likely to vote for Philips or Williamson.

Except those undeclared voters are voting in the Republican primary, and if they are voting in the Republican primary they are not voting for Phillips or Williamson. They are voting for Haley.

What we have seen so far clearly suggests a strong percentage (but low turnout) for Biden in the Dem side and high turnout and relatively high percentage for Haley in the Republican primary.

It might or might not be enough for Haley to actually outright win, but it makes the Trump landslide polls look more dubious.

Not it really doesn't. Even in the polls that have Haley losing 10, 15, 20 points have the electorate at close to 50/50 GOP/Undeclared. It was expected that Undeclared, based on polls at least, that there would be quite a big undeclared vote in the GOP primary. That's already baked in.

[wbrocks67]

In the end, I just don't see the path forward for Nikki Haley


Because even of she wins today trump is still going to beat her in South Carolina. Her best shot is to hope that a win in New Hampshire somehow changes a lot of republican voters' minds about Trump, but I'm very skeptical that something like that will ever happen

But even if everything goes right and by some miracle she beats trump for the republican nomination does anybody in their right mind think trump and his supporters are going to gracefully accept that fact that she won Especially since trump has already been using birtherism attacks against her.

There is no path forward for her. She'll lose SC worse than she will lose NH. She probably has the cash to keep going if she wants to stand as a default alternative to Trump, but she isn't beating him head to head.

I feel like a broken record but, IF she pulls an upset, there is clearly a path forward for her.  Media shifts to the "we have a race" narrative and  Republicans who are coalescing around Trump suddenly have another viable option.  On top of which, Trump's legal troubles start to add up.  And if the courts intervene and really barr Trump, she will be the GOP candidate.  She might even do better in her home state, which she won before and knows well.  Of course, for all that to happen, we need close to, or over 300,000 to turn out in the Republican primary in NH today.

Not at all. The only reason she has a 5% chance in NH is because of Independents who can pick a GOP ballot. Republican voters go strongly for Trump and that will be the case going further in nearly all of the contests.

I agree about NH but, if she wins, it is still a win and puts wind in her sails.  She has ample funding and a huge incentive to hang around as the GOP "mature" candidate.

That's not going to change the minds of 3/4 of Republican voters though.

[wbrocks67]

Has turnout analysis ever proved correct ? I remember the famous "Florida is in the bag" in 2020 over dem turnout. lol

Never forget the infamous 2022 "Dems in disarray bc of FL and VA turnout"

[wbrocks67]

How is it possible that Chris Wallace is the only one making sense on the CNN panel? Even if Haley does well tonight, this matters little considering that Republican voters are going for Trump by huge margins and the rest of the contests are only Republican voters.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like CNN isnt releasing full exits till 8pm.

Also, I'm surprised people are making a big deal of the electorate being 47% Independent. I believe most polls showed similar results - with like a 52 GOP/48 Indy split, or something close to that.

[wbrocks67]

How is it possible that Chris Wallace is the only one making sense on the CNN panel? Even if Haley does well tonight, this matters little considering that Republican voters are going for Trump by huge margins and the rest of the contests are only Republican voters.

Because things change. If she does well tonight, some of those Repubs for Trump can swing over to her

Donald Trump is winning Republicans by like 40%. Most of them are true believers. They're not going to switch to Haley because she even pulls NH to a draw (which even that seems unlikely) because of Independents and Democrats