ABC/Wapo: Trump +3

[wbrocks67]

Trump 48%
Biden 45%

Men: Trump 54 - Biden 38
Female: Biden 52 - Trump 44
Independents: Trump 50 - Biden 41
18-39 year olds: Trump 52 - Biden 43
Whites: Trump 58 - Biden 37
Blacks: Biden 76 - Trump 19

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/05/poll-biden-trump-2024/

[wbrocks67]

Looks like we're going to be dealing with a 2022 redux all over again for a while, since pollsters clearly can't be bothered to do something about still having some of these troublesome samples.

Trump +9 among 18-39 year olds? Trump +9 among Independents? After last years results? Come on now.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like we're going to be dealing with a 2022 redux all over again for a while, since pollsters clearly can't be bothered to do something about still having some of these troublesome samples.

Trump +9 among 18-39 year olds? Trump +9 among Independents? After last years results? Come on now.

Polling was accurate in 2022.

Yes, nonpartisan polling generally was. But there were also serious issues with sampling - mostly with GOP hack pollsters but some of the nonpartisan ones did it as well, with young voters, minorities, and Independents. That is a larger issue that is affecting both partisan and nonpartisan pollsters still.

ABC/Wapo is a great pollster, but again, if your sample has Trump winning young voters by nearly double digits... something is wrong.

[wbrocks67]

Trump getting 19% of Black voters in this poll should tell you that it's not credible. Even if you actually believe that it doesn't even square with a 3% lead that has White voters voting almost identical to 2020. If he was really getting that much of the Black vote he'd be up more than 3.

Crosstabs have very high sampling variance. Also, polls typically underestimate landslides as there are probably some people who randomly respond.

The larger issue here is that there are certain crosstabs that are *consistently* wrong which speaks to bigger issues in terms of who the pollster is sampling. Pollsters -even the nonpartisan ones- largely continue to have major issues with minorities and young voters.