ABC/Wapo: Trump +3

[wbrocks67]

Trump 48%
Biden 45%

Men: Trump 54 - Biden 38
Female: Biden 52 - Trump 44
Independents: Trump 50 - Biden 41
18-39 year olds: Trump 52 - Biden 43
Whites: Trump 58 - Biden 37
Blacks: Biden 76 - Trump 19

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/05/poll-biden-trump-2024/

[wbrocks67]

Looks like we're going to be dealing with a 2022 redux all over again for a while, since pollsters clearly can't be bothered to do something about still having some of these troublesome samples.

Trump +9 among 18-39 year olds? Trump +9 among Independents? After last years results? Come on now.

[Matty]

Looks like we're going to be dealing with a 2022 redux all over again for a while, since pollsters clearly can't be bothered to do something about still having some of these troublesome samples.

Trump +9 among 18-39 year olds? Trump +9 among Independents? After last years results? Come on now.

true, but the senior number is also dubious in this poll in favor of biden.

Why are you sh**tting on 2022 polling? It was collectively the most accurate cycle in a long time.

And abc/wapo was among the best.

As much as it pains me to say, 2024 is somehow a tossup.

[Suburbia]

19 percent of Blacks supporting Trump after everything should alarm Democrats....calling him racist is not working.....

[indietraveler]

What is this trash? I'd rather money be spent on higher quality polls during an actual election season than all this 2024 nonsense already.

[Devils30]

Some in the media think they'll get credit if they underestimate Dems now. Crappy polling should be called out no matter where.

[Vosem]

Ah, the "no shift from 2022" scenario.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ah, the "no shift from 2022" scenario.

LoL it's 2 yrs to Edays

[Vosem]

Ah, the "no shift from 2022" scenario.

LoL it's 2 yrs to Edays

Oh, absolutely fair point, but while I think this poll is probably skewed towards Trump it's not ridiculous to say this is the current state of play.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Waves happen at end of Eday cycles and Trump is under 3 investigations he's not winning by 3 over Biden

ABC wrongly had RS ahead of the GCB

[oldtimer]

Give us swing state polling, national numbers are useless.

The GOP won the popular vote by 3 in the midterms but lost all swing states.

[DaleCooper]

Nope. All polls indicating that Trump has a growing base of voters in the general election are fake.

[Vosem]

Waves happen at end of Eday cycles and Trump is under 3 investigations he's not winning by 3 over Biden

ABC wrongly had RS ahead of the GCB

ABC had a final generic ballot of R+2 in 2022, so basically correct. The real number was R+3; adjusting for a greater number of races not being contested by Democrats, it might've been something like R+1. In previous cycles ABC was horrifically skewed towards Democrats, particularly in 2020.

Give us swing state polling, national numbers are useless.

The GOP won the popular vote by 3 in the midterms but lost all swing states.

Apart from Senate races (a big 'apart' to be sure) they won the non-Northeastern swing states; the GCB numbers are usually cited from House races. PA might be attributable to a mixture of unopposed Republicans and Brian Fitzpatrick specifically running far ahead of a normal Republican -- that particular 'victory' is hard to give full credit for -- but the GOP won AZ/GA/WI quite comfortably at this level.

[SnowLabrador]

If the election were held today, Trump would win. Unbelieveable. I just wish it was easier for 22-year-olds to move abroad.

[Agafin]

Looks like we're going to be dealing with a 2022 redux all over again for a while, since pollsters clearly can't be bothered to do something about still having some of these troublesome samples.

Trump +9 among 18-39 year olds? Trump +9 among Independents? After last years results? Come on now.

Polling was accurate in 2022.

[Alben Barkley]

We need to shut down polls until we can figure out what the hell is going on.

Some polls have Biden up 8, others like this Trump up 3. Literal massive double digit variations in the polls for the GOP primary; it could be anything from like DeSantis +40 to Trump +40. It's more all over the place and useless than I've ever seen.

No wonder Disney is contemplating shutting down FiveThirtyEight. What is even the point of data based analysis when the data itself is complete and total garbage?

[Alben Barkley]

Apart from Senate races (a big 'apart' to be sure) they won the non-Northeastern swing states; the GCB numbers are usually cited from House races. PA might be attributable to a mixture of unopposed Republicans and Brian Fitzpatrick specifically running far ahead of a normal Republican -- that particular 'victory' is hard to give full credit for -- but the GOP won AZ/GA/WI quite comfortably at this level.

Not just a big "apart," but a MASSIVE "apart." Senate races were the only federal statewide races held in these states, and thus by far the most similar to and predictive of presidential races in the same states. And Democrats did better in Arizona and Georgia than they have in decades in those races, better than 2020 in Pennsylvania, outperformed expectations in Nevada, etc. Wisconsin was maybe the lone bright spot for the GOP if you just look at the Senate; even then, the gubernatorial race was a major flop for them, though granted that's not federal.

Overall, however, you seem to be desperately cherrypicking data that favors your side in a strained effort to pretend that last year was anything other than a complete and total embarrassing failure for you, or that similar results next year would not result in the GOP going down in flames. There is no path to victory with TRUMP as the nominee in states like PA, AZ, and GA, which clearly showed last year that Trump-endorsed crazy candidates can't win there anymore.

You're also completely ignoring Michigan LOL. Guess you're not counting it as a swing state anymore? Rightfully so perhaps! Because the state AND House results there were utterly pathetic for the GOP. A state that was won by your party not all that long ago shouldn't be written off already. If it is, you're in big trouble.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bogus poll two yrs out from Eday

[Vosem]

Apart from Senate races (a big 'apart' to be sure) they won the non-Northeastern swing states; the GCB numbers are usually cited from House races. PA might be attributable to a mixture of unopposed Republicans and Brian Fitzpatrick specifically running far ahead of a normal Republican -- that particular 'victory' is hard to give full credit for -- but the GOP won AZ/GA/WI quite comfortably at this level.

Not just a big "apart," but a MASSIVE "apart." Senate races were the only federal statewide races held in these states, and thus by far the most similar to and predictive of presidential races in the same states. And Democrats did better in Arizona and Georgia than they have in decades in those races, better than 2020 in Pennsylvania, outperformed expectations in Nevada, etc. Wisconsin was maybe the lone bright spot for the GOP if you just look at the Senate; even then, the gubernatorial race was a major flop for them, though granted that's not federal.

Overall, however, you seem to be desperately cherrypicking data that favors your side in a strained effort to pretend that last year was anything other than a complete and total embarrassing failure for you, or that similar results next year would not result in the GOP going down in flames. There is no path to victory with TRUMP as the nominee in states like PA, AZ, and GA, which clearly showed last year that Trump-endorsed crazy candidates can't win there anymore.

You're also completely ignoring Michigan LOL. Guess you're not counting it as a swing state anymore? Rightfully so perhaps! Because the state AND House results there were utterly pathetic for the GOP. A state that was won by your party not all that long ago shouldn't be written off already. If it is, you're in big trouble.

Senate races are not the only federal races held in those states, actually; there were also House races. Also, in many of these states the statewide down-ballot elections seemed to be fought on pretty normal Republican vs. Democratic lines; while a few places like KS or NY had really skewed turnout environments, this isn’t true for most places. (MI, in fact, did not have a Senate race and was not commonly cited as a swing state in 2016 or 2020, though it was close both times. If you want to count 50/48 there for federal Democrats while statewide Democrats won landslides as a huge win, you can do that.)

House elections are the only ones held in all states, plus “total House vote” is a commonly polled number; citing literally anything else is cherry-picking. Sometimes cherry-picking can be valuable; I think it would be silly not to notice that Democrats tended to win hotly contested races in 2022 (the close Senate races, but also basically all the most expensive House races, actually), and a picture of the year without mentioning that is badly flawed. At the same time, Democrats literally got fewer votes and lost the House; that is what it means to lose a national election. (Sometimes there are complications where one side gets more votes but still loses overall, as in 2012/2016. That didn’t happen this time). Ignoring this and doubling down on 2022 will lead to further national defeats.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like we're going to be dealing with a 2022 redux all over again for a while, since pollsters clearly can't be bothered to do something about still having some of these troublesome samples.

Trump +9 among 18-39 year olds? Trump +9 among Independents? After last years results? Come on now.

Polling was accurate in 2022.

Yes, nonpartisan polling generally was. But there were also serious issues with sampling - mostly with GOP hack pollsters but some of the nonpartisan ones did it as well, with young voters, minorities, and Independents. That is a larger issue that is affecting both partisan and nonpartisan pollsters still.

ABC/Wapo is a great pollster, but again, if your sample has Trump winning young voters by nearly double digits... something is wrong.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a poll 2 yrs out and it doesn't matter anyways

[Sir Mohamed]

Looks like we're going to be dealing with a 2022 redux all over again for a while, since pollsters clearly can't be bothered to do something about still having some of these troublesome samples.

Trump +9 among 18-39 year olds? Trump +9 among Independents? After last years results? Come on now.

Yup, though sample size is possibly too small.

[Fusternino]

Haven't we already discussed how the crosstabs looking too good is also very problematic?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

This is actually very similar to the midterm generic ballot, but we do not know how this translates to swing states. Rs won the generic ballot by 2.8 in the midterms (1.6 once adjusting for uncontested races), but lost MI, and would've probably lost PA too without Fitzpatrick and Doyle's overperformances.

They would also only win AZ/WI by 2 and NV by about 3 (NV is probably also skewed by Amodei's overperformance, probably goes to <1 without). This would be quite precarious as if this were an electoral college map they were only 1 of AZ/WI from losing even with a 3 point popular vote lead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is actually very similar to the midterm generic ballot, but we do not know how this translates to swing states. Rs won the generic ballot by 2.8 in the midterms (1.6 once adjusting for uncontested races), but lost MI, and would've probably lost PA too without Fitzpatrick and Doyle's overperformances.

They would also only win AZ/WI by 2 and NV by about 3 (NV is probably also skewed by Amodei's overperformance, probably goes to <1 without). This would be quite precarious as if this were an electoral college map they were only 1 of AZ/WI from losing even with a 3 point popular vote lead.

RS haven't learned yet about WI, AZ and NV Evers, Hobbs, CCM won so no it does not translate into R wins