Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[wbrocks67]

Ballots Requested: 900,402
Dems: 647,629 (71.9%)
Reps: 179,807 (20.0%)

Ballots Returned: 24,422
Dems: 16,575 (67.9%)
Reps: 6,308 (25.8%)

Dem return rate: 2.6%
Rep return rate: 3.5%

Officially hit 900K requested. Still not much reporting from most of the more Dem areas though (Philly, Montco, Bucks, Delaware, Allegheny, etc.)

[wbrocks67]

Ballots requested: 904,801
Dems: 650,580 (71.9%)
Reps: 180,837 (20.0%)

Ballots returned: 28,347
Dems: 19,395 (68.4%)
Reps: 7,195 (25.4%)

Dem return rate: 3.0%
Rep return rate: 4.0%

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 916,280
Dem: 658,632 (71.9%)
Rep: 183,178 (20.0%)

Total ballots returned: 52,105
Dem: 36,671 (70.4%)
Rep: 12,074 (23.2%)

Dem return rate: 5.6%
Rep return rate: 6.6%

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 916,280
Dem: 658,632 (71.9%)
Rep: 183,178 (20.0%)

Total ballots returned: 52,105
Dem: 36,671 (70.4%)
Rep: 12,074 (23.2%)

Dem return rate: 5.6%
Rep return rate: 6.6%

How can their be such a massive lead for Democrats and yet Republicans lead the return rate by about one percent

Not sure what you're asking; The raw vote lead is huge, but GOP's requested is obv much, much smaller so their bar to climb for return rate is much lower.

Should be noted too that it's going to take a little for these to shake out; there's still some counties like Bucks and Montgomery that are basically reporting nothing. Philly and Allegheny only just entered the chat basically today, too.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 922,245
Dem: 662,460 (71.8%)
Rep: 184,734 (20.0%)

Total ballots returned: 83,860
Dem: 58,925 (70.3%)
Rep: 19,356 (23.1%)

Dem return rate: 8.9%
Rep return rate: 10.5%

[wbrocks67]

I’m having a hard time seeing Carluccio win this race. The one thing that kept Republicans competitive in previous court races was ancestral GOP support in the Philadelphia suburbs, and with Dobbs it’s more likely than not that it evaporates. Furthermore, the Philly mayoral race, and to a lesser extent the Allegheny County executive race will supercharge Democratic turnout in those areas in a way they weren’t in 2017 or 2021. Future GOP wins in court races will be dependent on turning out low-propensity WWC voters.

Keep in mind that Republicans won by the skin of their teeth in 2021 in what was the worst election night for Democrats in recent memory.

Yep, and Dem messaging for Dobbs has been brutal for Carluccio.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 930,820
Dem requested: 667,764 (71.7%)
Rep requested: 187,106 (20.1%)

Total ballots returned: 109,316
Dem returns: 78,538 (71.8%)
Rep returns: 23,443 (21.4%)

Dem return rate: 11.8%
Rep return rate: 12.5%

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1714740984242712723

[wbrocks67]

Ballots requested: 938,110
Dem: 672,205 (71.7%)
Rep: 189,209 (20.2%)

Ballots returned: 164,991
Dem: 118,355 (71.7%)
Rep: 35,436 (21.5%)

Dem return rate: 17.6%
Rep return rate: 18.7%

[wbrocks67]

So far, these numbers are mirroring 2022 with a small D edge (margin wise)

Requested ballots in 2022 (final) were D+47.5; it's D+51.5 right now.

Returned ballots in 2022 (final) were D+47.9; it's D+50.2 right now.

Final return rate in 2022 was 83.2% for both parties

2022 had 1.44M requested and 1.18M returned.

Looks like PA GOP's new push to get Republicans to use VBM is falling on deaf ears.

[wbrocks67]

So far, these numbers are mirroring 2022 with a small D edge (margin wise)

Requested ballots in 2022 (final) were D+47.5; it's D+51.5 right now.

Returned ballots in 2022 (final) were D+47.9; it's D+50.2 right now.

Final return rate in 2022 was 83.2% for both parties

2022 had 1.44M requested and 1.18M returned.

Looks like PA GOP's new push to get Republicans to use VBM is falling on deaf ears.

I think the issue might be that if you set aside the die-hards that listen to conservative propaganda, a lot of Trump voters simply don't like Republicans. They don't like the GOP, don't trust them, probably don't even see them as an especially good alternative to the Democrats, and a lot of them may not even think Trump is all that great either but they've bought into the lie that he'll protect their job or put a stop to illegal immigration or whatever.

I don't believe that Trump voters are too dumb to know that there are elections other than presidential ones, I think many of them just don't care and don't want to go out of their way to vote for Republicans. 

This is definitely possible, and I'm interested to see how this year shakes out. Let's not forget, 2021 was a low point for Dems and a Dem nearly still won the PA Supreme Court that year. Carluccio is also flatlining pretty badly in fundraising, the main MAGA stars are not really helping her. She's lucky that Jef Yass is saving her campaign, b/c without him she'd be in really dire straights.

[wbrocks67]

And with that, Dems leap to a better return rate, and now D+52.4 in returns, outpacing the D+51.2 in requests.

Ballots requested: 949,174
Dem: 678,388 (71.5%)
Rep: 192,681 (20.3%)

Ballots returned: 221,067
Dem: 161,054 (72.9%)
Rep: 45,232 (20.5%)

Dem return rate: 23.7%
Rep return rate: 23.5%

[wbrocks67]

A lot of interesting things happen in Philly City Council too - it's possible that two Working Families Candidates will likely boot out two Republicans, so that there are 0 Republicans on city council.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/philly-city-council-race-ads-kendra-brooks-josh-shapiro-20231020.html?utm_campaign=Philly.com+Twitter+Account&cid=Philly.com+Twitter&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=social

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 961,263
Dem: 685,372 (71.3%)
Rep: 196,249 (20.4%)

Total ballots returned: 261,333
Dem: 191,092 (73.1%)
Rep: 52,971 (20.3%)

Dem return rate: 27.9%
Rep return rate: 27.0%

Dems continue upward trajectory; returns now D+52.8, compared to requests at D+50.9. Return rate also moving up as well (was D+0.2 on Friday)

[wbrocks67]

The Inquirer endorsed McCafferry (D), which is not surprising, but woof, did Carluccio get herself into a mess here:

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1716771048581202321

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 971,293
Dem: 690,979 (71.1%)
Rep: 199,509 (20.5%)

Total ballots returned: 309,880
Dem: 227,505 (73.4%)
Rep: 62,099 (20.0%)

Dem return rate: 32.9%
Rep return rate: 31.1%

More Dem upward trajectory; returns are now D+53.4, compared to D+50.6 in requests. Return rate is now nearly 2% higher for Dems as well.

[wbrocks67]

Lackawanna is blowing the roof off returns; Among the mid-to-large counties, they are easily the best with returns right now. Ds are at 55% returned, while Rs at 44%.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 971,293
Dem: 690,979 (71.1%)
Rep: 199,509 (20.5%)

Total ballots returned: 309,880
Dem: 227,505 (73.4%)
Rep: 62,099 (20.0%)

Dem return rate: 32.9%
Rep return rate: 31.1%

More Dem upward trajectory; returns are now D+53.4, compared to D+50.6 in requests. Return rate is now nearly 2% higher for Dems as well.

I wonder if Philadelphia and Allegheny are starting to come in. Democrats do well in off year elections when the Philly mayor is up.

Allegheny is, Philly is a little slower. Democrats are banking a ton of VBM in even a lot of more redder areas, but their VBM advantage is pretty universal everywhere, whether it's blue/red/swing. Republicans seem to still consider it radioactive pretty much everywhere in the state. Montgomery County also has still basically reported nothing (3k out of 87k requests) so numbers should also ramp up when they start reporting more.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1716903629825905075

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 979,836
Dem: 696,065 (71.0%)
Rep: 201,921 (20.6%)

Total ballots returned: 338,598
Dem: 248,498 (73.4%)
Rep: 67,913 (20.1%)

Dem return rate: 35.7%
Rep return rate: 33.6%

[wbrocks67]

13 days to election VBM:
2020: 1.18M; 72.1% D, 19.0% R — D+53.1
2022: 634k; 73.0% D, 19.2% R — D+53.8
2023: 339k; 73.4% D, 20.1% R — D+53.3

[wbrocks67]

Franklin & Marshall poll (no horse race):

Daniel McCaffery (left): 16% favorable, 9% unfavorable
Carolyn Carluccio (right): 12% favorable, 17% unfavorable

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/f-m-college-poll-october-2023-6539b15636f9d.pdf

Pretty much the only thing I can gleam here is that the anti-Carluccio ads are working.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 989,338
Dem: 702,091 (71.0%)
Rep: 204,295 (20.6%)

Total ballots returned: 378,389
Dem: 277,896 (73.4%)
Rep: 75,601 (20.0%)

Dem return rate: 39.5%
Rep return rate: 37.0%

Dems continue to outperform their requests (D+50.4) with returns (D+53.4) and have now surpassed a 200K lead on Reps.  Return rate also continues to go up.

[wbrocks67]

Carluccio is just .... so bad at this. She puts out this ad (which is terrible for many reasons), but most egregious it that her campaign has nearly entirely been funded by outside interests!

https://twitter.com/JudgeCarluccio/status/1717539395165655378

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I don't fault Carluccio for not being a political superstar given that this is a judicial race after all, but she really is just extremely cringe, especially given McCaffery is much more telegenic as well - also this ad is basically perfect, up until the Planned Parenthood mention at the end, you may believe he may even be a Republican lol (with the "working class" caricature)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPbE5xS4v2g