Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[wbrocks67]

VBM requested: 895,709
Dem: 650,588 (72.6%)
Rep: 236,346 (26.4%)

VBM returned: 563,378
Dem: 415,156 (73.7%)
Rep: 144,759 (25.7%)

Dem return rate: 63.8%
Rep return rate: 61.2%

[wbrocks67]

#TwitterIsNotRealLife

https://twitter.com/nick_d_laughlin/status/1782408198437158931

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, the discourse around Fetterman on Twitter specifically has been rather unhinged imo. You can disagree with him being more pro-Israel than what you'd like, but the people who go as far as to say that he's 'disgusting' or Joe Manchin or whatever is just delusional. Fetterman aligns 98% with every other mainstream Democrat on the issues. Because he disagrees with you on Israel, he's suddenly a turncoat? It's all so exhausting

[wbrocks67]

VBM requested: 895,861
Dem: 650,682 (72.6%)
Rep: 236,403 (26.4%)

VBM returned: 634,683
Dem: 466,806 (73.6%)
Rep: 164,220 (25.9%)

Dem return rate: 71.7%
Rep return rate: 69.5%

--

On Tuesday morning of election:
2021G: 685K; 71.1% D, 21.8% R — D+49.3
2022G: 1.18M; 69.2% D, 21.3% R — D+47.9
2023G: 782K; 72.0% D, 20.8% R — D+51.2
2024P: 635K; 73.6% D, 25.9% R — D+47.7

Pretty impressive that we got very close to the VBM pre-election day tally of the 2021 general for a primary. Reps did a smidge better than they typically do for VBM (only comparing to generals though), but it's still essentially the same near D+50 performance that we've been seeing consistently

[wbrocks67]

is Summer Lee vulnerable in her primary?

Nah, I don't think so. I think the worst I'd expect for Lee is like 70/30.

[wbrocks67]

Turnout in Philly actually trended up in the 2023 primary from the 2022 primary, despite the high profile races in 2022. Interested to see how turnout does today

2023P: 205k
2022P: 201k
2021P: 162k
2020P: 302k

Sixty-Six wards has estimated turnout close to 150k now which seems high, but we'll see.

https://sixtysixwards.com/turnout-tracker/

[wbrocks67]

Revised estimate for Philly is about ~160k now - knew that was way too high for earlier. 3 more hours left, I suspect we'll probably get close to 2023/2022 when all is said and done (~200k)

[wbrocks67]

Turnout for primaries:

2023P: 1.88M (1.05M D, 824K R)
2022P: 2.63M (1.28M D, 1.35M R)
2021P: 1.91M (945K D, 967K R)
2020P: 2.74M (1.60M D, 1.14M R)

[wbrocks67]

Ended up voting for Solomon for AG. Curious how it's all going to turn out

[wbrocks67]

Yeah the Mclelland thing is very odd, it seems that people really just went for the geographical county I guess? Bizarro had a ton of institutional support, so this is still pretty shocking.

Not shocked that Depasquale will get AG. Him being the only one from western PA definitely sealed it.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah the Mclelland thing is very odd, it seems that people really just went for the geographical county I guess? Bizarro had a ton of institutional support, so this is still pretty shocking.

Not shocked that Depasquale will get AG. Him being the only one from western PA definitely sealed it.

Tbf, Jared Solomon also had a lot of institutional support and he's in last place in the AG primary, although having to duke it out with three other SEPAers while DePasquale cleaned up out west certainly hurt his chances badly.

Yep, Jared and Keir's fates as expected were basically sealed once both were on the ballot from Philly. There was no way either could really win, let alone with people from Bucks and Delco.

Same with McLelland - she has western PA on lock; Bizzaro unfortunately only had Erie, which does nothing for him.

[wbrocks67]

How the hell did DePasquale win without getting even 3rd in many of the Philly collars or the city?

Because he won just about everything else.

Yep, and getting 69% of the vote in Allegheny helped him obv quite a bit. The two Philly candidates split the vote in Philly for example

[wbrocks67]

Turnout-
2024P: 1.94M (997K D, 946K R)
2023P: 1.88M (1.05M D, 824K R)
2022P: 2.63M (1.28M D, 1.35M R)
2021P: 1.91M (945K D, 967K R)
2020P: 2.74M (1.60M D, 1.14M R)
2018P: 1.44M (752K D, 687K R)
2016P: 3.28M (1.68M D, 1.60M R)
2012P: 1.42M (616K D, 804K R)

Looks like we'll be closer to 2021 and 2023 in turns of primary turnout, not surprising considering the lack of major contested races.

R turnout being lower than 2021 is something lol

[wbrocks67]

How the hell did DePasquale win without getting even 3rd in many of the Philly collars or the city?

Because he won just about everything else.

It's a Dem primary though, isn't the majority of votes coming from the Southeast?

SEPA had 4 candidates, it was too split between them all. Depasquale meanwhile was able to dominate the entire western and central portion of PA.

[wbrocks67]

So Garrity is a lock to win now?

I wouldn't say she's a lock, but I definitely like her odds more than DeFoor's. Maybe it's my pro-Malcolm bias, though.

I would have to see McLelland's actual plan. Bizzaro at least for his part was already putting out attack ads against Garrity and setting the stage to show her as a 1/6 apologist but I don't know enough about Erin to know if she'll go down that path. I think the path is still easier to beat Garrity because of the 1/6 connection while DeFoor is such a blank slate that it is imperative of Malcolm to start defining himself and DeFoor early.

[wbrocks67]

So Garrity is a lock to win now?

I wouldn't say she's a lock, but I definitely like her odds more than DeFoor's. Maybe it's my pro-Malcolm bias, though.

I would have to see McLelland's actual plan. Bizzaro at least for his part was already putting out attack ads against Garrity and setting the stage to show her as a 1/6 apologist but I don't know enough about Erin to know if she'll go down that path. I think the path is still easier to beat Garrity because of the 1/6 connection while DeFoor is such a blank slate that it is imperative of Malcolm to start defining himself and DeFoor early.

Actually, I think you're right. Garrity is more beatable because she has at least garnered some attention for being a lunatic, whereas DeFoor has been quiet. He may win by virtue of not causing much of a stir during his first term. And Mcclelland has shown that she can at least win a primary statewide while facing tremendous odds--she seems to have a genuinely good ground game.

Exactly- DeFoor is a blank slate which I've said before is good and bad. If Malcolm doesn't define him though, he will get a pass and be a generic option. So he's gotta make sure that doesn't happen. Meanwhile, yeah from what I've seen, Erin seems to actually be a decent candidate, so I hope she takes a page out of Bizarro's playbook and runs with the Garrity-is-bat-sh!t stuff

[wbrocks67]

It really seems like the "list candidate's home county" thing works out massively in favor of the west and central counties and is often to detriment of SEPA, at least in the Dem primaries.   

I mean yes, but only b/c there is usually multiple candidates from SEPA. If it's simply a 1:1 race with one person from the west and one from SEPA, SEPA will win out.

[wbrocks67]

Philly turnout-

2024P: 201k
2023P: 205k
2022P: 201k
2021P: 162k
2020P: 302k

Turnout on par with 2022 which makes sense (prez year but no contested races vs last big contested race.) 2023 is a bit of an outlier; the only reason it was above 2021 levels was b/c of the mayoral primary

[wbrocks67]

Overall PA turnout-

2024P: 2.04M (1.08M D, 960K R)
2023P: 1.88M (1.05M D, 824K R)
2022P: 2.63M (1.28M D, 1.35M R)
2021P: 1.91M (945K D, 967K R)
2020P: 2.74M (1.60M D, 1.14M R)

Rs had lower turnout than 2021 lol

[wbrocks67]

Something else interesting is that Republicans had quite the undervote. Democrats had similar totals for all races. Reps clearly had a voters-who-only-care-about-Trump problem:

Dems:
Prez: 1,022,270
Senate: 1,023,093
AttorneyG: 1,049,133
AuditorG: 1,014,515
State Treasurer: 1,007,917

Reps:
Prez: 952,069
Senate: 877,711
AttorneyG: 881,319
AuditorG: 844,136
State Treasurer: 852,679

[wbrocks67]

Now that the totals are official, here's the results for the collar counties for D/R share:

Montgomery - D+28 (64-36)
Delaware - D+18 (59-41)
Chester - D+10 (55-45)
Bucks - R+0.6 (50.3-49.7)

[wbrocks67]

Something else interesting is that Republicans had quite the undervote. Democrats had similar totals for all races. Reps clearly had a voters-who-only-care-about-Trump problem:

Dems:
Prez: 1,022,270
Senate: 1,023,093
AttorneyG: 1,049,133
AuditorG: 1,014,515
State Treasurer: 1,007,917

Reps:
Prez: 952,069
Senate: 877,711
AttorneyG: 881,319
AuditorG: 844,136
State Treasurer: 852,679

In the AttyGen race, the GOP gets 7% undervote while Dems get 3% overvote.

This doesn't sound good for Biden in November at all, but points to PA Dems getting another statewide wave this November.

That figure actually didn't have write-ins, so Prez actually had a decent overvote for Dems too:

Prez - 1.08M
Senate - 1.03M
AG - 1.05M

[wbrocks67]

HARRISBURG — Pennsylvania’s top fiscal watchdog was set to become the highest-ranking official in the nation to affiliate with the centrist Forward Party this week, until he backed out at the last minute.

Republican Auditor General Tim DeFoor, who is seeking a second term in November’s election, was going to announce his affiliation — but not a formal party change — with the Forward Party at an event in Harrisburg on Wednesday, changing his mind earlier this week.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/tim-defoor-pennsylvania-auditor-andrew-yang-forward-party-20240522.html

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