2022 Estimated Generic Ballot by State

[wbrocks67]

Fitzpatrick really carrying Republicans over the finish line in PA lol. Only race that didn't go along with typical voting/partisan district patterns.

[wbrocks67]

Also CCM survived in a very tough environment in Nevada

Largely attributable to Amodei's overperformance in Washoe County.

I am kind of surprised at Pennsylvania, even accounting for Fitzpatrick. I guess Lee underperformed as well. Generally other Democratic incumbents did better than Biden.

PA Electorate definitely wasn't that Dem leaning..it still had a pretty decent Dem turnout for a midterm under Dem President but it seems quite obvious that Shapiro & Fetterman's big wins were mainly due to persuasion. Someone on did math on twitter and said that Fetterman's margin would have been roughly 7 points if turnout in each county was similar to 2020

The total PA electorate is never that Dem leaning. The map is extremely fair, so the house vote is usually even-ish when taking into account uncontested races.

Likewise, it would be a few pts to the left this year if a Democrat won in PA-01 by Fetterman's margin.