Mississippi Megathread 2023

[wbrocks67]

Reeves' margin is now down to +3.5% per CNN, 51.1% to 47.6%.

[wbrocks67]

Should be noted that Siena, which is a high quality pollster, actually severely botched this race. Their poll was from August, which you could argue was before Presley's "momentum", but still had Reeves +11, severely off from the final result.

[wbrocks67]

Should be noted that Siena, which is a high quality pollster, actually severely botched this race. Their poll was from August, which you could argue was before Presley's "momentum", but still had Reeves +11, severely off from the final result.

Yes, Presley probably had momentum after August as around then we regularly had 20% of the voters have no idea who Presley was (in favorability polls). The difference is that both Trump and Biden are well-known at this point. This was the state of the race in August:



Keep trying to unskew polls though. They underestimated Walker by 2 points and had an average bias of 0 in off-years.

Are you an AI chat bot or something? Literally no one is unskewing anything. The bottom line is Siena's poll was way off. That's not unskewing; maybe you should take a look at the dictionary.

Even high quality pollsters can be wrong sometimes, it's kind of wild that you are living and dying by this.

[wbrocks67]

Reeves down to +3.2%

Reeves (R) 50.9% -- 418,290
Presley (D) 47.7% -- 391,493

Reeves +26,797

[wbrocks67]

Interesting to point out that that Siena poll had Presley only up 70-16 with black voters, and losing 18-29 year olds, 47-41 against Reeves. Both of those seem to be way, way off. It doesn't seem likely that Reeves got more than 5% of the black vote.

[wbrocks67]

Split Ticket estimates Presley likely won the black vote 96-2

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1729158900463845540