Will Marie Perez be a one-term wonder?

[wbrocks67]

If JHB tries a comeback, MGP is presumably DOA but otherwise, so long as she maintains Peltola-like vibes that win her JHB swing-voters, she'll be fine.

I mean, this is possible, but I feel like it's also possible that voters may just be done with JHB? She was a fake moderate anyway. Yea she voted to impeach Trump, but she was awful on all the social issues like birth control, abortion, gay marriage, etc. MGP actually seems more fit to this district than JHB ever did.

[wbrocks67]

If JHB tries a comeback, MGP is presumably DOA but otherwise, so long as she maintains Peltola-like vibes that win her JHB swing-voters, she'll be fine.

Peltola's situation in Alaska is a poor point of comparison to WA-03. Alaska has always been one of the more unusual states politically, given its isolation, history of coalition governments, and comparatively strong support for non-major parties that make it far different than most other places in the mainland US. I also think Peltola's performance in November was far more impressive. With Alaska's modest Democratic trend over the past decade, she could be positioned well for a long career where she can enjoy significant crossover support. WA-03, by contrast, contains more archetypal working-class Trump voters who have shifted away from the Democratic Party, and the region has become more Republican since the Obama era. Gluesenkamp Perez only won by less than a point, which isn't far off from the district's partisanship, against a flawed opponent. Not saying that she can't win reelection, but I'd still think a more serious Republican candidate (really someone who isn't Kent) would have a good shot at taking her down.

I think the Alaska comparison though is more about how she was essentially kind of a lucky inherent of the seat, but in the end, it actually worked out because she ended up being the exact type of person who would be lodged longterm in a seat like this. I think Peltola obviously will be lodged in AK-AL longer than MGP would be, but I think at the same time, the comparison is apt though in that MGP seems like a great fit for the district at this point in time and now could cultivate a strong Peltola/Cartwright type lodge in that district.

Or she could be a Joe Cunningham-type. But Cunningham never seemed to be lodged into that district the way that Peltola or even MGP appears to be. Also, Cunningham won in a blue wave year. MGP ended up winning the seat in a Democratic midterm.

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone see Joe Cunningham as a good analog towards MGP? He also won an R-leaning district after the incumbent was primaried from the right.

wasn't Cunningham's district a double digit Trump district ? WA03 was only Trump+4. I feel like MGP can survive in 2024 if Trump runs since it was only a Trump +4 district but will be much harder to win in a midterm under Dem president against a generic R. She outran top of the ticket by 9 points this year (Smiley won that district by 7.5 points) but had the advantage of running against a poor opponent, something that's not guaranteed in future. I think strong incumbents can outrun top of ticket by 4-5 points...will be harder to do beyond that though

In 2020, SC-01 was Trump + 6 as Cunningham lost by ~1% to Mace, so a 5 point overperformance on his part.

It is important to rmbr though Mace is actually a pretty mainstream bordering on "moderate" R who faced a serious primary from the right this cycle, defeating Arrington 53-45.

Lowkey one kinda surprising thing is that Mace "only" won by a little under 14%, as the newly configured version of her district was Trump + 9. Considering the black turnout drop in much of the southeast, the fact she didn't face a serious opponent, and also was relatively uncontroversial (at least to swing voters), I would've thought she would've done better.

Mace is kind of awful though, so I'm not surprised. I wouldn't exactly call her mainstream/moderate either. She's as fake as they come.