PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[wbrocks67]

I still am kind of surprised at the lack of ... anything from the McCormick campaign. He's unopposed in the primary, but you would think he'd giving out signs and getting the word out early or something. There's nothing, no presence whatsoever. Casey doesn't have much either, but he's also a established figure, while McCormick has a lot of work to do.

Not only that, but given McCormick's high fundraising (from rich people), he has enough money to start running some ads. He could even try and define Casey a bit early; but he's literally doing nothing.

I'm not expecting him to go full fledged in March, but the primary is already next month and he's just... there

Remember how Mastriano didn't start running ads on TV until literally two weeks before the 2022-GOV election? And he wasn't even in those ads save for "I'm Doug Mastriano and I approve this message". 

Yep, which did make sense given that he was broke. I'm more surprised that McCormick isn't doing anything given he has some $$$ but maybe he's just stockpiling it for now. Honestly, Dems/Casey should take this time where he's not doing anything and start defining him on the airwaves imo. Oz him.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1765854918777115027

[wbrocks67]

My god lol

https://twitter.com/DavidABergstein/status/1766086125691469840

[wbrocks67]

I'm not convinced Fitzpatrick could win a general either; he'd obviously have a much better chance than almost anyone else the PAGOP would put up, but a senate GE would actually require him to take firm stances on a lot of issues, when he's been able to skate by on either a) not owning up to his positions on some issues or b) being very wishy-washy on them

He also has numerous votes that could come back and bite him.

[wbrocks67]

LOL. LMAO even

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1773406508333629928

[wbrocks67]

I expect these to track the Q4 results in that McCormick did poorly with grassroots/small donor donations while Casey was the opposite

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1775931811560116489

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1776328076139372635

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1776328076139372635

Dude is straight up manifesting bullets out of thin air to shoot himself in the foot with

Look McCormick will probably lose to Casey by 4-5 points, but it isn't because he had lunch with Mastriano or something.

This is such a weird comment? Of course no *one* instance is going to make him lose by 4-5%, what kind of comment is that? The point (which you seem unwilling to understand...?) is that all of these things add up to why he's such a terrible candidate. The simple fact that Dems can now run ads linking him to Mastriano is disastrous for him, especially in the suburbs.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1776328076139372635

Dude is straight up manifesting bullets out of thin air to shoot himself in the foot with

Look McCormick will probably lose to Casey by 4-5 points, but it isn't because he had lunch with Mastriano or something.

This is such a weird comment? Of course no *one* instance is going to make him lose by 4-5%, what kind of comment is that? The point (which you seem unwilling to understand...?) is that all of these things add up to why he's such a terrible candidate. The simple fact that Dems can now run ads linking him to Mastriano is disastrous for him, especially in the suburbs.

This is so silly. Having a luncheon with Mastriano is not enough to "tie" McCormick to him. It would be like tying Casey to AOC because they had a meeting. And Oz was literally on the same ballot as Mastriano and held up quite well in the Philly suburbs relative to Trump.

Now we're just lying...

Montgomery: Biden +26, Fetterman +28
Bucks: Biden +4.5, Fetterman +7.5
Chester: Biden +17, Fetterman +17
Delaware: Biden +27,  Fetterman +28

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1776328076139372635

Dude is straight up manifesting bullets out of thin air to shoot himself in the foot with

Look McCormick will probably lose to Casey by 4-5 points, but it isn't because he had lunch with Mastriano or something.

This is such a weird comment? Of course no *one* instance is going to make him lose by 4-5%, what kind of comment is that? The point (which you seem unwilling to understand...?) is that all of these things add up to why he's such a terrible candidate. The simple fact that Dems can now run ads linking him to Mastriano is disastrous for him, especially in the suburbs.

This is so silly. Having a luncheon with Mastriano is not enough to "tie" McCormick to him. It would be like tying Casey to AOC because they had a meeting. And Oz was literally on the same ballot as Mastriano and held up quite well in the Philly suburbs relative to Trump.

Now we're just lying...

Montgomery: Biden +26, Fetterman +28
Bucks: Biden +4.5, Fetterman +7.5
Chester: Biden +17, Fetterman +17
Delaware: Biden +27,  Fetterman +28

Where is the lie outside maybe Bucks? Oz literally did the same as Trump or 1/2 points less. Fetterman won big because of the shifts in rural and Western PA not the Philly area.

You said Oz "held up quite well in the suburbs compared to Trump" - he did *worse* than Trump in 3 of the 4 counties and only matched him in the 4th. Trump's performance in the Philly suburbs in 2020 was the worst for a GOP candidate in decades. Oz doing *worse* than him is even more catastrophic than it seems when you consider that Oz was supposed to make "inroads" in these areas. Doing worse than Trump is about as worse as you can get.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, let's be honest, the bench was nonexistent here.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly can't wait for these little things to add up for the supercut of tying McCormick to Mastriano

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1779862099700678736

[wbrocks67]

"Vulnerable democrat sen. casey"
"facing tough re-elect"

I'm sorry in what world

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1780359989124591675

[wbrocks67]

Dem prez - 997k
Casey - 992k

Rep prez - 946k
McCormick - 871k

Quite a bit of an undervote for McCormick despite him being the only person on the ballot...

[wbrocks67]

I want to temper my expectations given it's only May, but I certainly hope Casey's team has a plan for defining McCormick early. I've yet to see Casey/his accounts literally post anything about McCormick. I imagine his team is a little more old school than Fetterman's, but McCormick has given them a lot of stuff to work with recently and it feels like Casey's team is a little asleep at the wheel on this. There's plenty of time obv, but it's something I'm watching. This is easily time right now where Casey should not only be running positive ads on himself, but already starting to hit McCormick, given he's still unknown to many in PA.