PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1704949498588385497?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tb...

I mean, given that literally no one else is running, this is not shocking in the slightest.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/schwartzbCNBC/status/1704941628689940963

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/maddymcdaniel14/status/1705207418290929947

[wbrocks67]

How early in the 2020 cycle did Stacy Garrity announce for Treasurer?

Does it bode well for her that by October she seems to have attracted no significant opposition, while DeFoor has attracted lots of attention and a top-tier opponent?

Where has DeFoor attracted lots of attention? The only attention I've seen has been in Kenyatta, his opponent.

I imagine it's just because Treasurer is probably the 'lowest' statewide seat. Garrity should be an easy one to beat, given she's literally pro-1/6.

[wbrocks67]

It's like Oz all over again.

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1705914475755213120

[wbrocks67]

LMAO...

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1708503067514098096

[wbrocks67]

McCormick also just has that "evil corporate villain guy" caricature down too.

[wbrocks67]

Hot take: He's a worse candidate than Oz.

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1709219408734814245?s=20

Was coming to post and say this. He's been in the race for 3 seconds and has already given Dems like 5 huge oppo dumps just from him opening his mouth.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1710265035719655788

[wbrocks67]

Well and they are trying to spin the CT thing as "oh he's just a divorced dad who wants to see his daughter"

Okay... but the fact of the matter is that still means you do not live in PA full time, and are going to need to spend quite a lot of time in CT. So maybe that means you should not be running to be a senator in PA then? Seems like that would solve the problem!

[wbrocks67]

I am shocked to find out that McCormick is kind of a crook!

https://twitter.com/maddymcdaniel14/status/1717526657160839327

[wbrocks67]

The problem here for the GOP is that even outside of the Casey name and history, Casey is quite possibly the least controversial person that could ever be in this seat. You can't brand him as an extremist or radical left or any of the usual GOP shenanigans. He is as 'vanilla' as it comes, but for PA, that's exactly where you want to be. I think that's why the only attack that they're even attempting at this point is "Casey has gotten nothing done!" but voters also don't follow the daily goings on of senators votes compared to what, for example, the Governor is getting done, so even that line doesn't really work

[wbrocks67]

The problem here for the GOP is that even outside of the Casey name and history, Casey is quite possibly the least controversial person that could ever be in this seat. You can't brand him as an extremist or radical left or any of the usual GOP shenanigans. He is as 'vanilla' as it comes, but for PA, that's exactly where you want to be. I think that's why the only attack that they're even attempting at this point is "Casey has gotten nothing done!" but voters also don't follow the daily goings on of senators votes compared to what, for example, the Governor is getting done, so even that line doesn't really work

But you can brand him as someone who has been there too long/isn't as "moderate" as he "once was"/time to end the Casey dynasty etc. Not saying McCormick is the guy to do it but I still think this is much more viable than WI or even AZ at this point

Eh, not really. Casey isn't that old, so I don't really think the "he's been here too long" attacks work either, especially since he/his family are an institution in the state. He's not 80. Also, he has basically moved along with the Democratic Party in a way that doesn't make him too far left, even as he moved left. He's still pretty much at the sweet spot of the center left of where the majority of the party, especially in PA, is. It's not viable.

[wbrocks67]

McCormick seems to be a hot mess, I have no idea why people thought last year he'd be so much stronger than Dr. Oz. He would have lost by a similar margin.

However, it seems like the Republican bench in the state is extremely thin, with most of the representatives being bland and too far right for the state as a whole, other than Fitzpatrick. And he isn't going to win a statewide Republican primary.

He's lucky Trump is on the ballot, because now, given his numerous gaffes in just a few weeks, I think he may have performed just as badly as Oz in 2022. He has the same issues as Oz - he does nothing to actually appeal to moderates and is simultaneously so out of touch with the MAGA/Trump/rural voters.

[wbrocks67]

Given the results of this week, if Carolyn Carluccio was easily painted as anti-abortion when McCormick literally has *video footage* of him on record being anti-abortion, this could go even worse for him now. He'll be helped by Trump on the ballot, but I can't imagine it will be enough now.

[wbrocks67]

Commonwealth Foundation (R) has Casey fav at 48/36, pretty similar to what we've seen in most other polls.

https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Common-Ground-Q4-2023-Toplines.pdf

[wbrocks67]

$5.4M + $1M of his own money. Surprised at the $5.4M, I'd like to see how much of that is grassroots...

[wbrocks67]

I have seen nothing from McCormick on the ground. No billboards, no yard signs, no TV/internet ads. I anticipate those will pick up closer to the election, but for someone who has hardly any name recognition outside of *maybe* the GOP base, especially when running against a Senator with MASSIVE crossover appeal, that seems like an odd strategy.

Same - I get that he's running unopposed in the primary, but you'd still think there would be some more ground game, signs, etc. since like you said, he's nowhere near as known as Casey is.

[wbrocks67]

McCormick's bid meanwhile is quickly becoming a disaster

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1745096082969792639

[wbrocks67]

McCormick may actually be worse than Oz, pt 10:

https://twitter.com/Bob_Casey/status/1748750602564227410

[wbrocks67]

McCormick may actually be worse than Oz, pt 10:

https://twitter.com/Bob_Casey/status/1748750602564227410

Uh...that's literally nothing new. All Republicans are against it, even those who claim to be for it.

To be against this in *PA* when things like Amtrak/SEPTA are at stake, or impeding such situations like the I-95 collapse last year, it's one of the worst possible states I could think of to be against this.

[wbrocks67]

Okay, he really is worse than Dr Oz. Truly amazing

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1749827879989387277?s=20

[wbrocks67]

he still won't answer lol

https://twitter.com/American_Bridge/status/1752719263847047408

[wbrocks67]

I still am kind of surprised at the lack of ... anything from the McCormick campaign. He's unopposed in the primary, but you would think he'd giving out signs and getting the word out early or something. There's nothing, no presence whatsoever. Casey doesn't have much either, but he's also a established figure, while McCormick has a lot of work to do.

Not only that, but given McCormick's high fundraising (from rich people), he has enough money to start running some ads. He could even try and define Casey a bit early; but he's literally doing nothing.

I'm not expecting him to go full fledged in March, but the primary is already next month and he's just... there

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1765362255854530756