PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1649050087476326402

[wbrocks67]

No announcement yet but he posted this

https://twitter.com/dougmastriano/status/1649252446139478019

[wbrocks67]

Still nothing from Mastriano. I'm 50/50 on whether he'll actually do it, but now I'm leaning towards maybe he will, given you'd think if he was just saying no he's decided not to run, that he could've just said that already...?

[wbrocks67]

Oh, well speaking of:

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1650491722223198209

[wbrocks67]

Lots of intrigue still here. Mastriano said he made a decision and yet over a week later... nothing. Which again makes me think he is more likely than not, since there has been plenty of time to just put out a quick 'i'm not running' statement. His site says its currently unavailable, but that could just be because the domain lapsed or something. Looks like McCormick may really be waiting to see if he gets in or not.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1653786416273403904

[wbrocks67]

McCormick was polling poorly in most of the polling and overperformed. Period. But that'd beside the point
Mastriano literally lost by over more than twice than Trump did in 2020. He is now a proven lover, which I might add he was NOT in summer 2022. McCormick will have plenty of money, lots endorsements and massive establishment backing against someone who didn't even campaign at all in the general election.
If yall think Republicans are going to eternally nominate crazy people, you are going to be disappointed.

Mastriano was the one that overperformed in the primary. He basically had no money and had plenty of rivals who did and still got 45% of the vote. McCormick didn't really overperform that much. Him and Oz were both around the same in most of the polls, so both basically just scooped up the same amount of undecided vote

[wbrocks67]

Looks like Mastriano will finally be making his definitive announcement either way tomorrow. Again, anything can happen, but seems weird he'd schedule a meeting days in advance just to say he's not running.

[wbrocks67]

Every single house GOPer besides Fitzpatrick is way too conservative for the state at large. Guy would've done terrible.

[wbrocks67]

Every single house GOPer besides Fitzpatrick is way too conservative for the state at large. Guy would've done terrible.

I don’t agree. Guy was the only potential candidate that I was really afraid of. He’s young, common-guy-esque, and he can appeal to the crazies without alienating some of the swingier areas in NEPA and central PA. Especially against Fetterman, the winning message (“out of state elitist”) would not have worked against Reschenthaler.

Not sure how he could appeal to the swingier areas - he is way too conservative, and aligns himself with the more conservative wing of the party. He's not a nut like Mastriano but he would've tanked just as bad in SEPA and the suburbs.

[wbrocks67]

The fact is, there's no Republican candidate who'd be favored to win against Bob Casey. This is jockeying to be, in all likelihood, the loser of the general.

Which I wonder is why McCormick may be taking a bit long to make a decision still. Two losses in a row would be the death knell.

[wbrocks67]

Every single house GOPer besides Fitzpatrick is way too conservative for the state at large. Guy would've done terrible.

I don’t agree. Guy was the only potential candidate that I was really afraid of. He’s young, common-guy-esque, and he can appeal to the crazies without alienating some of the swingier areas in NEPA and central PA. Especially against Fetterman, the winning message (“out of state elitist”) would not have worked against Reschenthaler.

Not sure how he could appeal to the swingier areas - he is way too conservative, and aligns himself with the more conservative wing of the party. He's not a nut like Mastriano but he would've tanked just as bad in SEPA and the suburbs.

Saying Guy Reschenthaler would tank JUST as bad as MASTRIANO in SEPA and suburbs in a presidential year is delusional.

I was talking about 2022. Guy wouldn't tank as bad in 2024, but he wouldn't do any better than Trump did in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

[wbrocks67]

The article is pretty damning, especially this:

"He voted in a Pennsylvania election for the first time in 16 years during the 2022 Republican primary, when he was on the ballot, voting records show."

So he literally only voted in PA for the first time in nearly 20 years because he himself was on the ballot, lmao.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

Yet another carpetbagger trying to win a senate seat in PA. Is their statewide bench that small to rely on these wealthy out of touch GOP donor circles candidates from another state?

Likely D -> Likely D.

IMO, yes. All of the sitting GOP congressmen are too far right for the median voter. They all represent (outside of Fitzpatrick) safe GOP districts, so they've never had to moderate. Fitzpatrick meanwhile could not win a primary, and even he is a phony 'moderate' 50% of the time. Meanwhile, their only two statewide GOP officeholders are Garrity and DeFoor. Garrity is batsh*t when you actually take a look at what she has said, while DeFoor is just a complete unknown. IMO both won in 2020 because they were both essentially unknown. DeFoor has not made a name for himself, so I guess you could argue he's generic Republican, but at the same time, it seems equally as likely that some stuff could get dug up on him if anyone even bothered to look into him.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

David McCormick is a terrible candidate and the only reason the GOP establishment is simping over him is because he's not pro-Trump. Another example of the flawed reasoning of "anti-Trump = good candidate" and "pro-Trump = bad candidate".

It's probably because he's rich enough where he can achieve parity funding wise if the environment is friendly. A huge part of the GOP's problem in 2022 was that they had to dump so much money into places like Ohio and North Carolina and it detracted from more important races.

True, but Oz's money didn't help him either. Oz probably could've sunk even more, but he did spent quite a bit of his own fortune on that race.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1691052705219846144

Yet another carpetbagger trying to win a senate seat in PA. Is their statewide bench that small to rely on these wealthy out of touch GOP donor circles candidates from another state?

Likely D -> Likely D.

IMO, yes. All of the sitting GOP congressmen are too far right for the median voter. They all represent (outside of Fitzpatrick) safe GOP districts, so they've never had to moderate. Fitzpatrick meanwhile could not win a primary, and even he is a phony 'moderate' 50% of the time. Meanwhile, their only two statewide GOP officeholders are Garrity and DeFoor. Garrity is batsh*t when you actually take a look at what she has said, while DeFoor is just a complete unknown. IMO both won in 2020 because they were both essentially unknown. DeFoor has not made a name for himself, so I guess you could argue he's generic Republican, but at the same time, it seems equally as likely that some stuff could get dug up on him if anyone even bothered to look into him.

Fitzpatrick is by any definition the most moderate member of the House and you think he's too far-right for Pennsylvania?
Would you say the same about the democratic congressmen from Pennsylvania, who are less moderate than a good chunk of the Republican delegation?

I mean outside of Fitzpatrick, they're all too far right. But Fitzpatrick is a nonstarter himself because he would never win a primary, and also a senate run would force him to finally take a side on many issues that he's skated around.

[wbrocks67]

Not much in the latest F&M poll of PA for the senate race given that they couldn't even start polling the GOP primary because no one is in it, but Casey has a positive favorable rating, 39/30.

https://www.fandmpoll.org/poll-release-august-2023/

[wbrocks67]

LOL

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1696218868396474650

[wbrocks67]

I didn't even realize he said this - he's in even worse shape than I even thought lol

https://twitter.com/andyvolosky/status/1701260546916372728

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1701919803013775870

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1702338820488999003

[wbrocks67]

Oop!

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1704241462634848297

[wbrocks67]

LOL

https://twitter.com/maddymcdaniel14/status/1704601596653346994

[wbrocks67]

It just keeps getting better

https://twitter.com/maddymcdaniel14/status/1704913878982045733