2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread (user search)
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  2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 47323 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #25 on: April 11, 2023, 09:05:12 AM »
Glad we're learning from the biggest flops of 2022 (CA+NY)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #26 on: April 11, 2023, 12:06:14 PM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #27 on: April 13, 2023, 09:23:49 AM »
Kirsten Engel is back IN for AZ-06

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/13/2163602/-Morning-Digest-Arizona-Democrat-launches-rematch-for-House-seat-that-got-away-in-22
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #28 on: April 21, 2023, 08:11:01 AM »
WSJ (Fabrizio/Impact) has GCB at R+1, 43-42

https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Poll_April_2023_redacted.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #29 on: April 27, 2023, 08:28:34 AM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #30 on: April 27, 2023, 09:47:11 AM »
Shamaine Daniels is IN again for PA-10
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #31 on: May 04, 2023, 08:14:36 AM »
MD-06 is not a reach opportunity. This is embarrassing
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #32 on: May 12, 2023, 10:32:51 AM »
Thought this was interesting:
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #33 on: May 25, 2023, 08:38:49 AM »
New GCBs:

Cygnal: tied, 45-45
Clarity: D+6, 47-41

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1661479532631670785
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #34 on: June 08, 2023, 08:46:06 AM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on June 07, 2023, 08:29:33 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on May 31, 2023, 06:42:23 PM



Congratulations to Tom Kean Jr. on winning re-election.

this already didn't age well given the above post
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #35 on: June 08, 2023, 09:07:08 AM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on June 08, 2023, 08:53:41 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on June 08, 2023, 08:46:06 AM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on June 07, 2023, 08:29:33 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on May 31, 2023, 06:42:23 PM



Congratulations to Tom Kean Jr. on winning re-election.

this already didn't age well given the above post

Fundraising =/= results.

Kean barely won last year, and 2024 will be a presidential year - not sure why he's seen as so strong?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #36 on: June 28, 2023, 08:32:33 AM »
Not sure it was posted here, but Dems were +2 in the GCB in the NBC News poll from this weekend, 48-46.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #37 on: June 29, 2023, 09:08:13 AM »
GCB is D+1 in YouGov/Economist, 41-40

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/01qmicwezl/econTabReport.pdf

Cygnal has it R+1, 46-45
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #38 on: July 03, 2023, 10:40:32 AM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #39 on: July 05, 2023, 09:05:11 AM »
« Edited: July 05, 2023, 09:49:20 AM by wbrocks67 »
Senate Q2 fundraising:
Adam Schiff (D-CA): $8.1M
Collin Alred (D-TX): $6.2M
Bob Casey (D-PA): $4.0M
Tammy Baldwin (D-WI): $3.2M
Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD): $1.6M
Lucas Kunce (D-MO): $1.2M

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1676556709861507074
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #40 on: July 06, 2023, 11:31:51 AM »
Dems:
Adam Frisch (CO-03) - $2.6M
Josh Riley (NY-19) - $775K
Sarah McBride (DE-AL) - $414K
Julie Johnson (TX-32) - $410K
Liz Gereghty (NY-17) - $400K
Brian Williams (TX-32) - $360K
Sarah Klee Hood (NY-22) - $320K
Mondaire Jones (NY-17) - $300K
Sue Altman (NJ-07) - $200K

Reps:
Mike Lawler (NY-17) - $900K
Scott Baugh (CA-47) - $545K

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1676977628085977088
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #41 on: July 11, 2023, 09:16:40 AM »
LOL
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #42 on: July 11, 2023, 03:41:52 PM »
Quote from: UncleSam on July 11, 2023, 02:32:44 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 11, 2023, 09:16:40 AM
LOL


Don’t think this is even close to ‘lol’ worthy. She’s a former incumbent who lost by 8 last year. Yes she is a solid underdog (probably starts out as Likely D) but she’s nowhere near DOA. The RGV is notoriously swingy and hard to predict, and in 2020 turned up for Rs. Not saying that will happen again or that Trump will suddenly carry the 34th, but this is still the best possible recruit Rs could get for this seat and puts it on the map, even if towards the edge.

Yes, it is LOL worthy. Flores literally only won in 2022's special election because of the atrocious turnout, and she almost lost by double digits last year - in a red wave year - because she's a QAnon nut. If she's the "best possible recruit" Rs have here, they're not doing too well.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #43 on: July 12, 2023, 09:43:51 AM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #44 on: July 12, 2023, 10:06:28 AM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #45 on: July 13, 2023, 11:00:51 AM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #46 on: July 19, 2023, 08:53:33 AM »
YouGov/Economist GCB

D+4, 42-38

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ay6e0ph68l/econTabReport.pdfhttps://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ay6e0ph68l/econTabReport.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #47 on: July 23, 2023, 02:26:36 PM »
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on July 23, 2023, 12:49:41 PM
Quote from: Veni Vidi Vicious on July 20, 2023, 08:26:35 AM
Quote from: Roll Roons on July 20, 2023, 08:21:07 AM


Lmao. I thought it was blue no matter who?

"Blue no matter who" is a general election thing, contested primaries are completely different.

Yeah that original comment makes no sense
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #48 on: August 01, 2023, 08:38:14 AM »
And why is PA "Tilt D" while WI/MI are "Lean D"?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #49 on: August 09, 2023, 11:26:43 AM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on August 09, 2023, 10:36:56 AM
Interesting memo from the CLF: https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2023/08/08/CLF_2023_Summer_Memo.pdf

It acknowledges that the path to the House majority for both parties runs through deep blue states. Given the large number of competitive seats in CA and NY, plus more in others like NJ, OR, WA, this is definitely true.

Their section on PA (Wild and Cartwright) is just demonstrably false.
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