California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[wbrocks67]

Where is the proof that Porter is actually terrible to her staff? The entire hubbub about those texts seemed like there was a lot of missing context and the full story wasn't really put forth (shockingly!)

[wbrocks67]

Feinstein needs to stop being annoying. Just announce the god damn retirement already.

[wbrocks67]

Quinnipiac didn’t have a H2H, but they did do favorables

Among GE:
Porter: 30/11 (+19) — 59% haven’t heard enough
Lee: 18/11 (+7) — 71% haven’t heard enough
Schiff: 31/30 (+1) — 38% haven’t heard enough

Among Dems:
Schiff: 53/3 (+50) — 42% haven’t heard enough
Porter: 47/5 (+42) — 48% haven’t heard enough
Lee: 29/6 (+23) — 65% haven’t heard enough

Thought Porter would be more toxic with Rs since she seems to be another Fox boogeyman, but she’s only 10/19 with GOP. Schiff is 6/61. Porter also does better with Indies, at 26/12. Schiff is 25/36.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3868

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, I like Schiff and have nothing against him, but if I was in CA this would probably be between Porter and Lee for me.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1661392077777944576

[wbrocks67]

Barbara Lee and her allies really played themselves with this one. Their PR campaign to bully Newsom was clearly misguided.

[wbrocks67]

I honestly have no dog in this fight, but as an outsider who had no opinion on Lee before all of this, her campaign has been an absolute mess.

[wbrocks67]

It's hard to imagine Schiff not winning this at this point-

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1747667840453533899

[wbrocks67]

We're about half way counted in CA and the makeup of the Senate race is

D 57.3%
R 41.0%
Other 1.7%

From what I remember, I think it will oscillate a bit between a blue mirage and red mirage at this point after the in-persons were redder, but I feel like the last few cycles have been a bit confusing and all over the place in their trajectory compared to long ago, so who knows.

Just an awful performance by Porter and Lee though.

[wbrocks67]

Most of the election-day votes (the most R-skewing) have been counted, so I imagine there may be oscillation, but no more severe red mirage from here on out (also depends if other counties are counting the same way LA has)

https://twitter.com/LACountyRRCC/status/1765318850403500291

[wbrocks67]

I'm glad this race was early in the cycle bc the discourse was kind of becoming unbearable. Is there evidence really that Schiff is so much more conservative? He just seems like a normie Dem at this point. I probably would've voted for Porter (though have no issues with Schiff; Lee was just too out there with her policies), but Porter really did run a terrible campaign.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1765546277071429744?s=20

[wbrocks67]

We're about half way counted in CA and the makeup of the Senate race is

D 57.3%
R 41.0%
Other 1.7%

From what I remember, I think it will oscillate a bit between a blue mirage and red mirage at this point after the in-persons were redder, but I feel like the last few cycles have been a bit confusing and all over the place in their trajectory compared to long ago, so who knows.

Just an awful performance by Porter and Lee though.

~53% in now, I think yesterday morning it was at like 47 or 48%. Slight inch up for Ds:

57.5% D
40.8% R
1.7% Other

[wbrocks67]

We're about half way counted in CA and the makeup of the Senate race is

D 57.3%
R 41.0%
Other 1.7%

From what I remember, I think it will oscillate a bit between a blue mirage and red mirage at this point after the in-persons were redder, but I feel like the last few cycles have been a bit confusing and all over the place in their trajectory compared to long ago, so who knows.

Just an awful performance by Porter and Lee though.

~53% in now, I think yesterday morning it was at like 47 or 48%. Slight inch up for Ds:

57.5% D
40.8% R
1.7% Other

~58% in now; so far a mini-blue shift. We've gone from D+16.3 to D+17.5 so far

D 57.9%
R 40.4%
Other 1.7%

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)

We'll see where it goes from here; I don't think it's as foreseen that it goes back down for Ds, but we'll see. It seems like the turnout may have been a bit underestimated; LA County for example has kept revising its total for a couple days now as more come in

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)

For comparison, final D share was 58.1% in 2022-GOV.

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)

For comparison, final D share was 58.1% in 2022-GOV.

And the final R share was 34% in the primary, so it was a 58.1 - 34 result, +24.1D in the CA 2022 Governor primary.

Eh, not doing a direct D-R comparison for that one since a few Independent candidates were much more prominent in some of those races than this year.

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)
73% in: D+19.2 (58.8-39.6)  / special: D+19.8 (59.9-40.1)

Not much update today since it was the weekend; should get bigger updates again starting back tonight

[wbrocks67]

Per CA SoS Website Schiffs' lead for the Full Term has been cut to about 29,000

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-senate

Unless L.A. County has some giant basket of Schiff Vote out there is a reasonable chance Garvey not only beats Schiff in the Special Primary but also in the Regular Open Primary.

Hmmm this is interesting, so the late vote is bluer but more anti-Schiff? 

Yeah the later vote has definitely been a bit more pro-Porter and pro-Lee

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)
73% in: D+19.2 (58.8-39.6)  / special: D+19.8 (59.9-40.1)
76% in: D+20.0 (59.2-39.2)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)

Blue shift continues as of now.

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)
73% in: D+19.2 (58.8-39.6)  / special: D+19.8 (59.9-40.1)
76% in: D+20.0 (59.2-39.2)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)
85% in: D+19.5 (59.0-39.5)  / special: D+20.4 (60.2-39.8 )

And we're back to a small red shift!

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)
73% in: D+19.2 (58.8-39.6)  / special: D+19.8 (59.9-40.1)
76% in: D+20.0 (59.2-39.2)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)
85% in: D+19.5 (59.0-39.5)  / special: D+20.4 (60.2-39.8 )
89% in: D+20.6 (59.5-38.9)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)

Back to a blue shift.

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)
73% in: D+19.2 (58.8-39.6)  / special: D+19.8 (59.9-40.1)
76% in: D+20.0 (59.2-39.2)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)
85% in: D+19.5 (59.0-39.5)  / special: D+20.4 (60.2-39.8 )
89% in: D+20.6 (59.5-38.9)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)
92% in: D+20.2 (59.3-39.1)  / special: D+21.0 (60.5-39.5)

Red shift in regular, but blue shift in special.

[wbrocks67]

Did Porter and Lee concede already or congretulate Schiff? I couldn't find anything.

Not sure if they did publicly (which is weird) but Schiff confirmed in one of his interviews last week that they did reach out to him privately

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)
73% in: D+19.2 (58.8-39.6)  / special: D+19.8 (59.9-40.1)
76% in: D+20.0 (59.2-39.2)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)
85% in: D+19.5 (59.0-39.5)  / special: D+20.4 (60.2-39.8 )
89% in: D+20.6 (59.5-38.9)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)
92% in: D+20.2 (59.3-39.1)  / special: D+21.0 (60.5-39.5)
>95% in: D+20.4 (59.4-39.0)  / special: D+21.0 (60.5-39.5)

Still a little left to count, but looks like we ended up with about a ~4% blue shift from election night, and while there were a few minor backslides, it was generally a blue shift throughout (7 days got bluer, only 3 days got redder)