NM House Emerson: All incumbents ahead by double digits

[wbrocks67]

Did they... poll using the old district lines?

[wbrocks67]

For reference, the 2020 Presidential vote of the old districts:
NM-01 Biden 60-37
NM-02 Trump 55-43
NM-03 Biden 58-40

OMG they really did

[wbrocks67]

For reference, the 2020 Presidential vote of the old districts:
NM-01 Biden 60-37
NM-02 Trump 55-43
NM-03 Biden 58-40

OMG they really did

Yep. Very clear they didn’t even do the minor work to look at the new lines. Throw this one in the trash.

Every pollster will make mistakes, but Emerson is already a bit dubious with their methods (the MTurk, the random change between methodology in different polls, etc), so stuff like this does not install a lot of confidence in them.

[wbrocks67]

If this is how Emerson is doing all their polls, throw all this in the trash lol.

That explanation makes no sense, and you're telling me you just happened to get nearly the exact results as the old lines all these districts? Come on now. I don't think NM-02 is R+12 by registration.

[wbrocks67]

If this is how Emerson is doing all their polls, throw all this in the trash lol.

That explanation makes no sense, and you're telling me you just happened to get nearly the exact results as the old lines all these districts? Come on now. I don't think NM-02 is R+12 by registration.

This is the dog ate my homework excuse, they clearly didn't want to admit they didn't realize NM had new lines in 2022.

How many other states did they not do new lines for? They don't do a lot of House polling, and luckily CT-05 is pretty close to its old lines, but who knows if they even knew that at this point?