NY CITIZENS UNITED GOV HOCHUL+1

[wbrocks67]

Zeldin leads among white voters by 2%, while Hochul leads among nonwhite voters by just 8%.

So Hochul is doing just as well as Biden did in 2020 with White voters (when he carried the state by 23), but she's only up by 8 among nonwhite voters (Biden won them by over 50)... uh okay

[wbrocks67]

Is this the famed Citizens United? Sometimes I forget that they were a PAC before the Supreme Court case.

Yeah, they've done a few polls. They found Murray +6 in WA and Whitmer +7 in MI but... Hochul +1 in NY.

[wbrocks67]

This race is almost giving me PA-SEN vibes with the White voter polling. The White vote in many of these polls is generally the same, but the variable that is always different is the nonwhite vote (which is understandable, b/c it's a smaller sample, but still, you'd think there would be variation)

Recent NY polls among White voters:
Siena: Zeldin +1
Emerson: Zeldin +1
Citizens United/KAC: Zeldin +2

Yet Siena has Hochul blowing the water out with Blacks (92-2) and strong with Latinos (56-38), then Emerson is in the middle with the two being tied among Latinos and Hochul +30 among Blacks. Then you have this one, with Hochul only up 8 with nonwhites.

Same story in PA-SEN, where Fetterman/Oz are constantly nearly tied among Whites in every poll while the nonwhite vote has been all over the place (though more of an issue with the GOP pollsters who have Oz at 25-30% of the black vote)

Barring a total collapse with minority voters, Hochul only being down 1-2 among Whites would be utterly fantastic for her.

It's just the odd consistency for me.

[wbrocks67]

I'm getting weird Youngkin/McAuliffe vibes from this race now. Probably nothing but will have to watch on election day.

Luckily NY is much, much more Democratic than Virginia. But there’s no doubt that Hochul is running a horrible campaign and Democrats have dramatically overreached when it comes to crime and covid restrictions.

So you think Eric Adams would have won this race by much more then?

Nah, Adams is a joke at this point.

Democrats have two problems.

One, they are not running a campaign. I see Zedlin ads constantly, and they are pretty good (fear-mongering about crime, but also presenting him as a moderate and humanizing him by including his children). I only just saw my first Hochul ad yesterday, and it was basically the “Trump is bad message” that reeks of desperation. Hochul and NY Democrats have absurd amounts of money so there’s really no excuse for this.

Two, basically everything in the state is worse than 4 years ago. Democrats got their supermajority and used it to shut down public schools, pass a lot of activist nonsense, and do corruption. There is not really an affirmative case to be made for 4 more years. On the issues that people actually care about, they are silent. Meanwhile Hochul today mused about putting schoolchildren back in masks.

I am still voting straight ticket D because I’m not a sicko, but it’s hard to really advocate for more of this.

Voters such as yourself are the reason why Hochul will win again. What incentive is she and Democrats going to have to moderate at all?

Hochul is a moderate. Where is this insane alternative universe where she's some insane progressive? Meanwhile, Zeldin is out of his damn mind. Naturally all the GOP can do here is yell "crime!" when crime is actually down in New York.

[wbrocks67]

I'm getting weird Youngkin/McAuliffe vibes from this race now. Probably nothing but will have to watch on election day.

Luckily NY is much, much more Democratic than Virginia. But there’s no doubt that Hochul is running a horrible campaign and Democrats have dramatically overreached when it comes to crime and covid restrictions.

So you think Eric Adams would have won this race by much more then?

Nah, Adams is a joke at this point.

Democrats have two problems.

One, they are not running a campaign. I see Zedlin ads constantly, and they are pretty good (fear-mongering about crime, but also presenting him as a moderate and humanizing him by including his children). I only just saw my first Hochul ad yesterday, and it was basically the “Trump is bad message” that reeks of desperation. Hochul and NY Democrats have absurd amounts of money so there’s really no excuse for this.

Two, basically everything in the state is worse than 4 years ago. Democrats got their supermajority and used it to shut down public schools, pass a lot of activist nonsense, and do corruption. There is not really an affirmative case to be made for 4 more years. On the issues that people actually care about, they are silent. Meanwhile Hochul today mused about putting schoolchildren back in masks.

I am still voting straight ticket D because I’m not a sicko, but it’s hard to really advocate for more of this.

Voters such as yourself are the reason why Hochul will win again. What incentive is she and Democrats going to have to moderate at all?

No, the reason she’ll win again is because the other option is a far-right party full of anti-democracy lunatics. Why am I going to vote for a guy who is enthusiastically campaigning with DeSantis and supported ending American democracy in January 2021? Is he going to try to throw out NY’s electoral votes in 2024 if he’s governor? The NY GOP could have easily nominated a Phil Scott or a Charlie Baker. They did not. What incentive do they have to moderate if I give them my vote?

Cathrina will just say that Zeldin is actually a "good" candidate and Hochul is much, much worse.