PA: NYT / Siena: Fetterman (D) +6

[wbrocks67]

Some issues here (this sample voted for Biden by 4 points) but what's key is that at 44%, Oz being at 50% is outside of the margin of error. He really needs to win over virtually every undecided, moreso than Republicans normally do, which is not an impossible task (especially given that this was conducted pre-debate) but an uphill battle nonetheless.

Yeah, 2020 recall looks a bit too D but at least it looks the overall party reg/ID looks pretty normal for PA. (D+1/R+1)

Looks like ~1/3 of the poll was done after the debate, and they said they still had Fetterman leading afterwards.

Refreshing to see a poll that Oz at a realistic result with black voters as well lol.

What I'm watching is the White vote. I assume most of these polls are probably undersampling whites w/no college, but it really is crazy how almost every poll has Oz and Fetterman close among Whites.

[wbrocks67]

39% of those polled had a bachelor's degree or higher compared to the 34% that have a bachelor's degree or higher according to Statista. Interesting...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/306994/educational-attainment-pennsylvania/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20about%2020.6%20percent,their%20highest%20level%20of%20education.

The people who vote in elections always have a higher % with college than the census.

They're still probably undersampling white non-college voters.

I would suspect this is likely the case; again, if Oz and Fetterman were nearly tied with Whites, you'd be looking at 2018 Casey/Wolf margins, since that's about what they did.

With that being said though, Biden lost Whites by 15 in 2020, so even if you give a good chunk to Oz here from where it's at, it's still not enough.

[wbrocks67]

Here, we have a mainstream pollster, and as I expected, this one is seen as credible and as reflecting the actual state of the race, while the other four pollsters (Big Data, Wick, Insider Advantage, Co/efficient) that showed an Oz lead since the debate are immediately discarded. Pennsylvania clearly remains a Tossup, but poll preferences remain.

The point remains that it's a tossup, but you don't think there is a difference of having Oz at 25-30% of the black vote compared to the typical # that Democratic candidates have gotten for the last 3 cycles? I mean come on now. You can't be that dense to wonder why those are not taken as seriously. Even Nate Cohn himself called the GOP poll flooding out in his article today.

[wbrocks67]

Here, we have a mainstream pollster, and as I expected, this one is seen as credible and as reflecting the actual state of the race, while the other four pollsters (Big Data, Wick, Insider Advantage, Co/efficient) that showed an Oz lead since the debate are immediately discarded. Pennsylvania clearly remains a Tossup, but poll preferences remain.

The point remains that it's a tossup, but you don't think there is a difference of having Oz at 25-30% of the black vote compared to the typical # that Democratic candidates have gotten for the last 3 cycles? I mean come on now. You can't be that dense to wonder why those are not taken as seriously. Even Nate Cohn himself called the GOP poll flooding out in his article today.

"GOP poll flooding"? Why is it that we haven't had more "mainstream" pollsters polling these races in recent weeks? Why have they allowed for the field to be dominated by these Republican polls? The definition seems to be that any poll which shows Republicans leading in any of these competitive races, even by the slightest amount, is not credible and needs to be tossed into the trash. But any poll showing Democrats leading in these competitive races is immediately viewed as reliable, or as indicating that "something is up" for Republicans. Just look at Ohio, and how some people unironically think that Ryan has a better chance at winning than Oz does.

Well it's pretty clear that most 'Mainstream' pollsters are also waiting till the end to do their final polls. They can't afford to do a new poll every week like Trafalgar, IA, etc. And you have to wonder what type of quality you're getting with stuff like that.

[wbrocks67]

I do find it interesting that 3/4 of the nonpartisan pollsters in this race recently found a Fetterman +5/6 lead. CBS/YouGov being the outlier, at Fetterman +2, which is likely closer to reality. (I'm thinking Fett +2-3 when all is said and done right now)

[wbrocks67]

If this showed Oz+6, so many people here would be calling this race a done deal. But because it shows the Democrat leading, it’s treated with skepticism.

This is not true. Many (such as wbrocks67) would be dividing head first into the crosstabs to find any nugget that would discredit the poll, and assert that Fetterman is faring much better than what it shows.

Sis why are you so obsessed with me

[wbrocks67]

If this showed Oz+6, so many people here would be calling this race a done deal. But because it shows the Democrat leading, it’s treated with skepticism.

This is not true. Many (such as wbrocks67) would be dividing head first into the crosstabs to find any nugget that would discredit the poll, and assert that Fetterman is faring much better than what it shows.

Sis why are you so obsessed with me

You're the best example of his analogy.

I'm not sorry for taking a poll that has Oz at a similar black share of the vote that has happened historically in PA a little more seriously over a poll that has him winning nearly 30% of it.

[wbrocks67]

If this showed Oz+6, so many people here would be calling this race a done deal. But because it shows the Democrat leading, it’s treated with skepticism.

Yes, because this board is known for it's republican lean.

You're just writing nonsense

Well there's certainly quite a bit of republican leaning folks here. But there's also a ton of doomers as well, that was his point.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/upshot/polls-2022-midterms-fix.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

Relevant portion:

In our recent Pennsylvania poll, voters who said they recalled voting for Mr. Biden outnumbered those who backed Mr. Trump by four points, compared with Mr. Biden’s actual one-point victory. If we had adjusted our poll to match the 2020 results, we would have given more weight to the voters who said they backed Mr. Trump, shifting our results to the right (if you’re curious, John Fetterman would have led by three points in our recent Senate poll of Pennsylvania, 48 percent to 45 percent, rather than by 5.5 points).

Makes sense, most of the nonpartisan polling has settled around Fetterman 2-4-ish