PA: NYT / Siena: Fetterman (D) +6

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by NYT / Siena on 2022-10-26

Summary: D: 50%, R: 44%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Am I dreaming? Because I am really liking these NYT polls.

[Sestak]

So. The final week of polling has officially kicked off.

[Woody]

Haha

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Haha

Told ya Fetterman is gonna win

[Mr.Phips]

I don’t believe it, but nice to see I guess.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's a Halloween trick! 🎃🎃

(Happy Halloween, Atlas)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don’t believe it, but nice to see I guess.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1587031682422644736

The poll says tha is Fetterman healthy enough to perform his duties as a US Senator 48/35 says Yes, it's accurate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Halloween trick! 🎃🎃

(Happy Halloween, Atlas)

This isn't the only Senate seat Ds are gonna win WI, OH and NC are still vulnerable

[2016]

This has now become a very common and disturbing thing by either the New York Times/Siena or CNN to publish Polls that were done over a week ago.

It's meaningless to publish them. It was also done before Fettermans Debate Performance.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Failing New York Times poll=add 8 points to MAGA Mehmet to correct it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This has now become a very common and disturbing thing by either the New York Times/Siena or CNN to publish Polls that were done over a week ago.

It's meaningless to publish them. It was also done before Fettermans Debate Performance.

We're gonna keep the Senate you and Hollywood said Trafalgar was the most accurate poll and they had GRISHAM down by 1=1 and she is leading by 8 50/42


By the way you can't find Hollywood anywhere when Ds are leading in polls he was all over the map when polls were favored towards Oz last week

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Failing New York Times poll=add 8 points to MAGA Mehmet to correct it.

Oz only lead in CO EFFICIENT poll that has Zeldin up over HOCHUL that disqualified Co EFFICIENT right there

But they have Bennet leading by a landslide but that was reptible

[Bismarck]

These Times polls all seem to be a few points to the left of our consensus from the past week. So either the past week gave us a lot of polls that were skewed right or these polls are skewed left. I tend to think the latter but who knows. It is interesting that they found Nevada tied.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is gonna win this is PA

[Pollster]

Some issues here (this sample voted for Biden by 4 points) but what's key is that at 44%, Oz being at 50% is outside of the margin of error. He really needs to win over virtually every undecided, moreso than Republicans normally do, which is not an impossible task (especially given that this was conducted pre-debate) but an uphill battle nonetheless.

[wbrocks67]

Some issues here (this sample voted for Biden by 4 points) but what's key is that at 44%, Oz being at 50% is outside of the margin of error. He really needs to win over virtually every undecided, moreso than Republicans normally do, which is not an impossible task (especially given that this was conducted pre-debate) but an uphill battle nonetheless.

Yeah, 2020 recall looks a bit too D but at least it looks the overall party reg/ID looks pretty normal for PA. (D+1/R+1)

Looks like ~1/3 of the poll was done after the debate, and they said they still had Fetterman leading afterwards.

Refreshing to see a poll that Oz at a realistic result with black voters as well lol.

What I'm watching is the White vote. I assume most of these polls are probably undersampling whites w/no college, but it really is crazy how almost every poll has Oz and Fetterman close among Whites.

[MillennialModerate]

Absolutely No Chance this is correct.

In a best case scenario Fetterman wins by 3 or so. No chance it’s 6.

[Orwell]

39% of those polled had a bachelor's degree or higher compared to the 34% that have a bachelor's degree or higher according to Statista. Interesting...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/306994/educational-attainment-pennsylvania/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20about%2020.6%20percent,their%20highest%20level%20of%20education.

[Devils30]

39% of those polled had a bachelor's degree or higher compared to the 34% that have a bachelor's degree or higher according to Statista. Interesting...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/306994/educational-attainment-pennsylvania/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20about%2020.6%20percent,their%20highest%20level%20of%20education.

The people who vote in elections always have a higher % with college than the census.

[Orwell]

39% of those polled had a bachelor's degree or higher compared to the 34% that have a bachelor's degree or higher according to Statista. Interesting...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/306994/educational-attainment-pennsylvania/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20about%2020.6%20percent,their%20highest%20level%20of%20education.

The people who vote in elections always have a higher % with college than the census.

They're still probably undersampling white non-college voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is PA and National trends say that it's 47/35 Early voting is underway with more Ds

Shapiro is winning by 10 points in PA anyways

[wbrocks67]

39% of those polled had a bachelor's degree or higher compared to the 34% that have a bachelor's degree or higher according to Statista. Interesting...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/306994/educational-attainment-pennsylvania/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20about%2020.6%20percent,their%20highest%20level%20of%20education.

The people who vote in elections always have a higher % with college than the census.

They're still probably undersampling white non-college voters.

I would suspect this is likely the case; again, if Oz and Fetterman were nearly tied with Whites, you'd be looking at 2018 Casey/Wolf margins, since that's about what they did.

With that being said though, Biden lost Whites by 15 in 2020, so even if you give a good chunk to Oz here from where it's at, it's still not enough.

[Devout Centrist]

Failing New York Times poll=add 8 points to MAGA Mehmet to correct it.

This is the most shameful thing anyone has said on this website, maybe ever.

[Calthrina950]

Here, we have a mainstream pollster, and as I expected, this one is seen as credible and as reflecting the actual state of the race, while the other four pollsters (Big Data, Wick, Insider Advantage, Co/efficient) that showed an Oz lead since the debate are immediately discarded. Pennsylvania clearly remains a Tossup, but poll preferences remain.