Emerson: Hochul +6

[wbrocks67]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

[wbrocks67]

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump.

Once again, this screams nonresponse bias.

This is a Biden +26 sample, so I'm not so sure.

If anything, it suggests the undecided vote (in the Presidential match-up at least) leans Dem, as they often do in blue states.

IDK, something still seems very odd - You have 15% of Biden 2020 voters who would vote for... Trump in the 2024 rematch?

Their Democrat sample also has 21% of Dems voting for Trump in 2024 and nearly the same voting for Zeldin this year.

And maybe I'm reading it wrong, but only 17 people in their sample are "did not vote" in 2020? Does that mean there is barely any either non-2020 or new voters in this sample?

Even the “Does the FBI search make you more or less likely to support Trump in 2024” and 24% of Democrats say “more likely” (!!), and in the overall sample, in New York of all places, there is a higher total for “More likely” (35%) than “Less Likely” (34%). In a Biden +26 sample?!

IDK, maybe I'm totally off here. But that all just seems very odd.

[wbrocks67]

My point was that Biden's approval is about -9 right now nationwide. Again, using a universal swing is not always entirely accurate, but it seems to be in the right area with most of the information we know (lined up pretty well with VA exits last year)

Given NY was Biden +23 in 2020, it was about ~18% left of the nation. So with that being said, you'd probably expect Biden's approval to then be about +9 right now in NY, give or take a few points.

In early September (and the most recent Siena poll), Emerson actually had Biden at +8 approval. The most recent Siena, that had Hochul +11, had him +8 approval. So all of that pretty much lined up.

This one - and most of the ones that have Zeldin doing much better - have Biden at like a tied approval or this one, 46/47 in New York.

Again, granted, universal swing is not going to be perfect across the board. But Biden's approval randomly being much worse in New York of all places compared to everywhere else (swing wise) again would just be pretty randomly surprising. That's just the type of thing that makes me think something's funky. (let alone the SurveyUSA poll finding the same result as this with a Biden +11 2020 recall)

So again, I may be totally wrong. But I don't think it's wrong to question that something funky may be going on in the NY polls. For all we know, the same issues were the reason why the NY-19 polls were off. Maybe it's not. Who knows.