PA-SEN Wick Poll Post-Debate: Oz + 2 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 03, 2024, 09:41:42 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2022 Senate & House Election Polls
  PA-SEN Wick Poll Post-Debate: Oz + 2 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: PA-SEN Wick Poll Post-Debate: Oz + 2  (Read 1035 times)
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,918


« on: October 28, 2022, 08:48:55 AM »

From Twitter, please correct me if wrong:

Quote
The last poll’s sample I remember was like R+3 or so…this one is now D+1

2020 was a R+1 electorate

I honestly don't know how they're able to get these numbers, because now the 2020 recall is better for Trump than their last poll. And this one is even a smidge more conservative than the last one (now 45% conservative, vs 34% in 2020)

I'm not even going to try and understand what they're doing here, because the topline party ID/vote recall does not add up to their other sample measures
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,918


« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2022, 08:54:36 AM »

For those who love doing this...
The race and gender composition of the size is almost identical to 2020. They are a bit overestimating Trump in recalled vote but are underestimating Rs in Party ID.

Right, so my question is how is this possible? How do you find a composite that is somehow underestimating Republicans in Party ID yet extremely overstating conservatives?

The conservative total is 11% more than 2020, and that seems way outside MoE?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.024 seconds with 13 queries.