Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[wbrocks67]

I know you said about PWC, but are all these expected to count pretty fast? I feel like in the past Virginia has been red until pretty late in the night before most of the Dem ballots would come in.

[wbrocks67]

Just voted! Turnout was light but steady, passed people on the way in and the way out.  By far the youngest person there.  

Didn't have to wait in line.  For the fourth straight election cycle, I got a "that's a beautiful name" from the vote registration person

Was also pleased to see that this ballot wasn't the freaking SAT's like it was in 2020.  

What was your final ballot, if you're willing to share?

[wbrocks67]

Isn't that literally the same guy who in 2017 did the whole "Good for Dems in the morning, very bad for Dems in the middle of the day, Good again for Dems in the evening!" thing?

[wbrocks67]

How was the early vote in VA? Better for Ds or Rs?

[wbrocks67]

Dems absolutely could not be turning out in VA, but I wouldn't be surprised if turnout is down from 2021 across the board? 2021 itself was a huge nationally watched statewide race, and this year it's literally only a few competitive races on the board. If it was even able to get to 2021 turnout, that would be pretty massive.

2018 and 2021 had similar total turnout, but both had statewide races.

[wbrocks67]

Georgia exit polls should launch at 7pm EST, correct?

Will FL and NH be held off until 7:30pm?

[wbrocks67]

....doesnt E-Day typically go well for Republicans? Isn't that why we usually see a red mirage in VA?

[wbrocks67]

That does it. I don't think any amount of drumbeating about not drawing sweeping conclusions from turnout reports hours before polls close will convince anyone. See you nerds at 7:00 PM EST.

Democrats are not turning out in urban cores, hide from it all you want that is a very bad sign and it's clear we've lost. The Guam flip is also indicative of an anti-democrat party enviorment given how democratic it normally is.

.... Philly and Dane turnout are great right now.

[wbrocks67]

That does it. I don't think any amount of drumbeating about not drawing sweeping conclusions from turnout reports hours before polls close will convince anyone. See you nerds at 7:00 PM EST.

Democrats are not turning out in urban cores, hide from it all you want that is a very bad sign and it's clear we've lost. The Guam flip is also indicative of an anti-democrat party enviorment given how democratic it normally is.

Fully agree on the first part, especially urban cores where there’s been a relative lack of campaigning on Dems part. Places like Philly and Atlanta where there has been a lot of campaigning seem to be doing fine. But using Guam as a barometer for the nation is like using a ruler to measure the temperature outside

again, where is the proof that "urban cores" are not turning out? The only other city that is being spoken about is NYC, and where is the evidence of that?

[wbrocks67]

That does it. I don't think any amount of drumbeating about not drawing sweeping conclusions from turnout reports hours before polls close will convince anyone. See you nerds at 7:00 PM EST.

Democrats are not turning out in urban cores, hide from it all you want that is a very bad sign and it's clear we've lost. The Guam flip is also indicative of an anti-democrat party enviorment given how democratic it normally is.

.... Philly and Dane turnout are great right now.

Dane is an anomaly, so is philly. The main places we're just seeing horrendous democrat turnout especialy heavily latino city cores.

Good thing the contested races are in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and not Florida and Texas, right?

Bad Hispanic turnout and margins could be the death kiss for Dems in the house, especially with all the southwestern swing districts that have notable Hispanic populations

why are we extrapolating latino turnout across the board? based off of a few precincts?

[wbrocks67]

Okay but based Virginia Beach now? Were the early DOA results a little much now?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1590107558190383105?s=46&t=v3Ttg5tDPrsmHA...

[wbrocks67]

It oddly doesn't appear that the exits offered any form of "Democracy" to the pressing issues?

Abortion being at 27% shuoldn't be odd for anyone. Even if it bounces around a little higher or lower, when asked how important it is "to your vote", it's generally been higher.

It's been lower on questions like "what is the most pressing issue facing the country". Wording matters.

[wbrocks67]

Those exits are ... interesting lol. The white college+ share being much higher, R+1 House isn't too bad (2020 was D+1 party ID) ... that Trump favorability is something too.

I imagine as more exits come thru, the electorate will likely get younger and more nonwhite as it tends to do, since those voters generally are more prone to voting on election day (as more election day exits come in)

Biden's approval being 45/54 not bad either. Usually it would be pretty bad, but there were a lot of generic polls that had about a tie that also had his approval around there.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590110891344728064
I'm less nervous about Neveda i think the idea that clark county being the one place where turnout falls to 2014 levels is unlikley so the weight of probaility suggests dems are just dropping their votes off. I think the unions that made the Reid machine were telling their members to do that as well.

Yeah, I mean it really depends on how much mail is out. I would assume if most Dems were being told to do mail-in ballots that their in-person would be a huge dropoff. But this also means the GOP is hugely dropping off too...

[wbrocks67]

NBC exits New Hampshire

68% don't want Biden to run again in 2024
46% strongly disapprove of Biden

I thought states don't release exits until their polls close?

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, the exit poll having 18-44s at 30% total isn't great, but it's not even as bad as what was expected my some polls. Pretty sure the CBS/YouGov tracker had consistently pegged that group to only be like 25-27% of the electorate (with an R+2 overall result)

[wbrocks67]

Okay, giving myself a dose of reality after being burned by exits in the past, but wow if true-

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590107477923622912?s=46&t=SVrdyX81...

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JustR_02/status/1590112463114366977?t=oAovqgcR0t5ABqIMGYKc0g...

The FOX numbers are much closer to my expectations, so I'll believe that until proven otherwise..

How is FOX framing the question though? Again, we've seen a big difference between "What is the most pressing issue facing the country" and something like "What is the most important issue today that is influencing your vote"?

[wbrocks67]

This lines up exactly with the YouGov/Economist poll usually. They regularly got 61/39 - 63/37

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590106109758554114

[wbrocks67]

Entirely possible a non-zero amount of people with Abortion as an issue are pro-lifers

Exactly.  For what it's worth, I would have answered "abortion" to such a question, and I voted straight ticket Republican (for pro-life purposes).

I'm sure there's a non-zero amount, but generally what we've seen in most polling is something like the split being 80/20 in favor of Ds who say abortion is the top issue.

[wbrocks67]

is the nevada turnout abysmal in Clark? the predict guys already have it at 80% REpublican victory

Election Day turnout seems abysmal. Would make sense because most Dems are being directed to return their mail-in ballots. I don't know why it would be abysmal for Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting -early exit from AZ has R+6 electorate and 70 white/30 nonwhite.

2020 was R+9 and 74 white/26 nonwhite.

[wbrocks67]

Is the KY amendment NO for pro-choice or YES for pro-choice

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1590121140365979648?t=5oPA897MN-l_TqT...

Oh dear

Curious how those 13% break down. Wonder if this was a "all GOP said Warnock but some Dems said neither" situation. Could be the opposite too.

[wbrocks67]

Biden approval in PA 46-54.
Trump 40-58.

Interesting. Most of the PA polls from nonpartisan pollsters generally had Biden around -10-12ish in PA. -8 would be good.