Marquette: Johnson +6

[wbrocks67]

Is my math off here? How is the LV screen that off when an almost identical amount of Ds and Rs say their almost certain to vote? Is the amount of Rs just way bigger here?

This poll is quite something given that Barnes is actually doing 1pt *better* among RV than September. That was 48-47, and now it's 47-47.

You have to start wondering about the LV screen when there is a *6%* difference between the two.

After the month that Barnes had being attacked, being tied among RV is a great result for him tbh.

[wbrocks67]

Wait, I'm sorry - Barnes leads among Indies by 7 among RV, but then it switches all the way to Johnson +6 among LV? That shift is quite ridiculous.

[wbrocks67]

Wait, I'm sorry - Barnes leads among Indies by 7 among RV, but then it switches all the way to Johnson +6 among LV? That shift is quite ridiculous.

this is giving me "Nevada CNN result" where Masto was up by like 6 among 18-49 year olds and then the LV model switched to Laxalt +7

[wbrocks67]

One hell of a likely voter screen, race is tied among RV's.

I have said it before so this is not just unskewing a poll to fit my liking but I think RV polls give a better view of the state of the race. A bad LV screen makes for a bad poll.

RV polls give a better view on the race on the basis of what..

Wishcasting ?

Actually, the opposite. LV screens, especially in an environment like this, can be screwy. People who say they "definitely will vote" as opposed to "certain to vote" can be factored out very quickly. Can't rely on them 100%, but they still are more likely to vote than not. Better to just have the entire RV sample than try and say who will and won't vote.

This is why young voters - who yes, are unreliable - are likely getting cycled out because they're more likely to put "definitely vote" instead of "certain", etc.

[wbrocks67]

There is no way to reconcile stuff like the LV/RV difference here and say Dems won NY-19 because of higher propensity voters only.

Johnson is favored but pollsters really seem to be struggling badly in deciding what the electorate will look like.

apparently all those high propensity voters are just... sitting out a major November election

[wbrocks67]

Let’s be honest. The attack ads worked against Barnes is because he took ridiculously far left positions in 2018-20. The DSCC never should have let this guy get the nomination.

There’s a reason Warnock, Kelly, CCM,Beasley, Ryan haven’t seen their standing fall much if at all over the past 6 weeks. It’s because none of them wanted to defund the police or abolish ICE.

This seems a bit ridiculous imo. He's still at a better net fav than Johnson and tied in RV after *all* of that. That's not nothing.