PA SEN Emerson Fetterman+2

[wbrocks67]

All of these 45-43 or 45-42 polls are going to drive me crazy, the amount of undecideds/someone else should not be growing here [8% last time, now 13% this time]

Independents will be key too. Reason for some of these varying polls is them as well - Marist had Fetterman leading by something like 20, Fox and/or F&M had him up by at least 10 I think.

This one has Oz up by 12 (46-34)

Also odd that Emerson does favorability in every poll but they didn't do it here.

[wbrocks67]

Strongly suspect this will become part of a national trend, and it’s also why I haven’t written off Masters yet.

Then why is Hassan still getting +9, Warnock +5, and Kelly keeping his 5-7% margin?

Bottom line is in WI and PA especially, the GOP is going all out in the ad wars which is likely having an effect.

Problem for Oz however is the margin shrunk here, but he *also* dropped - to 43% from 44%. Oz can't seem to get out of this 41-44% range.

Fetterman is usually 45-50, depending on how much people are pushed (48 in Fox, 47 in F&M, 51 in Marist, etc.)

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman is still leading, but PA-SEN has tightened considerably in recent weeks. Oz is consolidating the Republican base and independents are moving his way.

Marist, F&M, and Fox all have Fetterman leading with Independents. This is an outlier. If we're going to push a narrative, let's at least have it based in facts.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman is still leading, but PA-SEN has tightened considerably in recent weeks. Oz is consolidating the Republican base and independents are moving his way.

Marist, F&M, and Fox all have Fetterman leading with Independents. This is an outlier. If we're going to push a narrative, let's at least have it based in facts.

Do you ever get tired of cherry picking? It has to be pretty labor intensive after a while.

Wait, what? LMAO - how am I the one cherry picking here? The facts are that nearly every poll we have from the last few weeks has Fetterman *winning* Independents. Cherry-picking would be exactly what Cathrina was doing, insinuating Oz is winning Indies because of one single poll.

[wbrocks67]

Need to strongly remind users here that most people don't tune into politics until around Labor Day (sometimes as a hard personal rule) and that the Fetterman campaign has been a disaster since then. This is a toss-up.

Has it? Seems like Oz has stepped up his game finally but Fetterman hasn't had any huge missteps of note.

I also think the Oz campaign has righted the ship and is doing a bang-up job, but the story of the past few weeks has been Fetterman dodging media and haggling over debates, failing to answer Oz's attacks, and one of his own biggest attacks ("Oz owns multiple properties") blowing up in his face.

This is completely wrong, but okay. The story of the past few weeks has not been about either of those things (debate talk literally fizzled out 2-3 weeks ago when they settled on a date), and if anything, one of the bigger points of the last few weeks is *Oz* failing to answer the attacks against him, particularly the abortion ban, which he keeps dodging.

[wbrocks67]

The question could be why then.

Spending.

This.

The way I see it is that Fetterman is holding his own against the onslaught of GOP attacks (between the ads and Fox's nightly anti-Fetterman rants), Fetterman still able to get at least 45% of the vote in every single poll, while being able to get 47, 48, 50+ in some when people are pushed/3rd party phased out.

Oz has been able to consolidate some of the GOP vote so he's gone from 36-39 to 41-44. However, Dems have also spent mightily against Oz (though GOP moreso against Fetterman), so Oz is moving up but is also getting stuck because it's all kind of equaling out. He's still deeply unpopular, and while GOP is attacking Fett, oz is still getting attacked too, preventing him from breaking out any further.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1575885073299427328

Ngl, this really doesn’t mean that much. There were only a small fraction of voters who switched over, and many of them were in the suburbs (I.e. places Trump did terribly in in 2020 in particular, even more so than 2016) where Oz is supposed to be doing well (like in Chester county).

Fetterman is running more as someone who can win Erie county and NEPA by solid margins. Most of those voters actually stuck with Trump in 2020 so wouldn’t be included in the focus group.

Now whether Fetterman will end up winning many 2x Trump voters in reality is anyone’s guess. But that’s the theory and so the focus group is kinda silly.

It sounds like a double standard but these focus groups are probably higher propensity so Fetterman only getting 50-50 is very concerning.

It's Trump-Biden voters. I would expect there would still be a bunch who will still vote for the GOP.