NY-19 Special Election Data for Progress: Molinaro + 8

[wbrocks67]

Well that would certainly be a bad result for Dems IMO.

D4P has seemed to be a bit R-leaning in polling this cycle, so interested to see how this one turns out.

[wbrocks67]

Oh well. So even if Pat overperforms polls like the Dem did in MN-1, he’s still in a deep hole and losing independents.

There weren't any polls of MN-01 or NE-01

[wbrocks67]

Oh well. So even if Pat overperforms polls like the Dem did in MN-1, he’s still in a deep hole and losing independents.

There weren't any polls of MN-01 or NE-01

538 says there was 1 SUSA and 1 internal for MN-1. Perhaps I should have said “overperforms poll” 😀

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/minnesota/1/

You are correct, my bad. Forgot about the SUSA one!

Funny enough, the average of those two was the exact result.

[wbrocks67]

also is this district really 94% white?!

[wbrocks67]

also is this district really 94% white?!

Not that extreme, but the diversity numbers are quite low.

https://datausa.io/profile/geo/congressional-district-19-ny#demographics

Interesting, so the district is about 83% white. This poll is betting that there's going to be minimal non-white turnout. Should be interesting.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO this place is going to be insufferable bc of a few posters.

> WA, KS, MN-01, and NE-01, and GCB polling all indicate a neutral environment
> Wonky NY-19 result : Red wave is back on!

[wbrocks67]

It's hard to poll special elections so I can give them a break, but their GE polls have also been R-leaning this cycle for sure

[wbrocks67]

It's hard to poll special elections so I can give them a break, but their GE polls have also been R-leaning this cycle for sure

We can't say that their polls are R-leaning until we actually have results to compare them to...

I mean in the sense that they are outliers. They had Walker +2 when nearly every other poll had Warnock with an edge, and their last GCB poll was like R+5 when most other outlets (aside from Traf and Rasmussen) weren't really saying that either