Marquette - WI Sen - Barnes +7

[wbrocks67]

Barnes+7 and Evers+2 in the same poll is not a combination I would have expected.

Doesn't appear there's a 3rd party in the Senate race, or if there is one, not one of note. For some reason, the Indy in the GOV race is taking 7% of the vote, so that likely is contributing to most of that split.

[wbrocks67]

All I know is, thank god we're getting a poll that actually has a majority decided.

This is much better than the constant 10-12% undecided we keep getting from PA polls.

[wbrocks67]

Enthusiasm gap = gone

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559955815070670848

[wbrocks67]

Marquette was pretty damn good in 2018 and 2020, but sure let's keep going back to 2016....

[wbrocks67]

Look maybe the poll is wrong, but given CW, this result and this type of stuff does not seem surprising

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559957498710433792

[wbrocks67]

I could be persuaded to move this down to Tilt R if Democrats keep this energy through November, although I imagine that's pretty unlikely.

...why is that? They've kept it for 2 months after Roe, and it's only getting stronger, so .. again, people keep acting if some magic wind is going to come for the Republicans in the next <90 days

[wbrocks67]

Barnes+7 and Evers+2 in the same poll is not a combination I would have expected.

Senatorial candidates are massively underperforming the gubernational ballot all across the nation for some reason.

Even in PA Mastriano overperforms Oz. Idk why that is.

Again, should be noted that this poll has Indy grabbing 7% of the vote in the GOV Race. Who knows how that would impact senate race if there was one.

Re: PA - the only real reason Mastriano is overperforming Oz is mostly b/c Mastriano has consolidated the GOP base in PA. Oz has not.

[wbrocks67]

Barnes+7 and Evers+2 in the same poll is not a combination I would have expected.

Evers is low energy, but I do struggle to think of a Barnes/Johnson voter.

This poll indicates there are Beglinger/Barnes voters, apparently

[wbrocks67]

Has the polling industry learned nothing from 2016 and 2020? Watch the actual results be something like 15 points to the right of this and Johnson wins by 8 or 9.

It's so funny to me when people keep acting like 2018 didn't exist.

But also, what will you say if Barnes wins?