FL-UNFL: Demings + 4

[wbrocks67]

I mean, this is the 3rd straight poll with a close result. The same poll has DeSantis up 7/8 which is actually pretty damn believable, so the fact that Rubio is running so far behind here (as he's done in other polls) might actually be something.

I still believe that Demings is having a good shot here right now because Rubio is sleepwalking. Demings has raised a sh*t ton of money this summer and seems to be actively campaigning, running ads, etc. Rubio seems to be zombie-ing his way thru this at the moment.

[wbrocks67]

Are Democrats really going to trust Florida polls again after being burned so many times?

Eh, I mean if you look at 2020, the RCP average was off by 4. That's bad but not catastrophic, in the sense that Demings is averaging more than a tie over Rubio, and for her to even lose by just 4 in this environment would be horrific for him.

[wbrocks67]

Of note, this poll also has Rubio's approval at 37/52 (-15), which I believe is nearly identical to that last FL poll we saw.

I have no idea if it's actually true or not, but some people seem to be ignoring the real possibility that Rubio's favorability has really declined since 2016.

[wbrocks67]

You have to be a moron to think this is true

"result is not what i like, so it must be false and if you believe what i don't like, you must be a moron!"

Same poll has DeSantis up 7-8, Trump +4 recalled vote, and is even slightly less Hispanic than 2020, so idk what to tell you bub

[wbrocks67]

You have to be a moron to think this is true

"result is not what i like, so it must be false and if you believe what i don't like, you must be a moron!"

Same poll has DeSantis up 7-8, Trump +4 recalled vote, and is even slightly less Hispanic than 2020, so idk what to tell you bub

It’s safe R. Florida Dems would struggle to beat Roy Moore if he was the nominee.

[wbrocks67]

All of these things can be true:
- Demings is a very strong nominee
- Rubio is not a good campaigner
- It's Florida, so he's still gonna win, but still it's Florida, so the margin will probably still be close

Yep. It seems odd to me that people assume Rubio is some titanium strong candidate or something, just because of a performance 6 years ago.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/aaronstrauss/status/1559541132350164995?t=UZQUx6Rg--_qCFb4FV...

Okay... but then the pollster weighted it by education, so. I get that the point is that it's harder to find non-college educated to poll, but the pollster still accounted for it and weighted it properly

[wbrocks67]

Rubio is going to win but he is running an horrible campaign

Thank you. It's almost as if most people can't just admit this.

[wbrocks67]

Rubio is going to win but he is running an horrible campaign

Thank you. It's almost as if most people can't just admit this.

National environment and the national environment will bail him out. And quite frankly, I have a hard time seeing a ton of DeSantis/Demings voters.

That's fine, and it's certainly possible. But I think people need to at least admit that his campaign HAS been sleepwalking, and if this does get very close, he only has himself to blame imo.

[wbrocks67]

Rubio is going to win but he is running an horrible campaign

Thank you. It's almost as if most people can't just admit this.

National environment and the national environment will bail him out. And quite frankly, I have a hard time seeing a ton of DeSantis/Demings voters.

That's fine, and it's certainly possible. But I think people need to at least admit that his campaign HAS been sleepwalking, and if this does get very close, he only has himself to blame imo.

He is running a campaign like if Florida was Wyoming or something… I don't think is going to happen but it can be a redux of FL 2018

Exactly. Rubio may still win, but he's certainly been caught sleeping and has been acting as if he doesn't have to persuade anybody.

[wbrocks67]

Everyone is somewhat afraid to say this, but the consistent theme here in state after state is polling indicating a historic Democratic tidal wave in November. It can’t just be "candidate quality" if it’s Schmitt, Rubio, Budd, Schmidt, Laxalt, Lombardo, etc. all struggling and races where a Republican is actually in the lead being few and far between.

Pretty clear that there’s going to be history written this November. Either this will be the best midterm election for the President's party since 1934 or the worst performance in American history for the polling industry. It’s your choice.

Idk, we saw plenty of flawed Republican Senate candidates underperform the rest of the ticket in years past. It’s not completely out of the question. Florida and Wisconsin, I agree, are likely R wins.

Sure, that would explain races like PA, where I don’t doubt that Oz will trail a generic R by a noticeable margin. But what about races with more generic Republican candidates, who have also been struggling and whose underperformances have been comparable to Oz's in some cases — FL, NC, MO, NV, even IA, etc.?

I’m not asking this to mock, it’s a genuine question/observation. It can’t just be that every Republican candidate is extremist or weak. I’m also wondering why they’re all performing so much worse than even Donald Trump in 2020? How are they even more unacceptable to the electorate than Donald Trump himself? So many questions...

I mean, that was also pre-insurrection, pre-Dobbs, pre-FBI raid, etc. A lot has happened since 2020 to turn people even more off from Trump, especially the ones in nearly every swing state who continue to egregiously align themselves with him and his lies.