WI-SEN (Marquette): Barnes +2 / close races

[wbrocks67]

Barnes (D) 46%
Johnson (R) 44%

Godlewski (D) 45%
Johnson (R) 43%

Johnson (R) 45%
Lasry (D) 42%

Nelson (D) 44%
Johnson (R) 43%

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1539662995650818048

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1539665448890814464

[wbrocks67]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

[wbrocks67]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

Tell me why you believe the polling is more accurate than 2020. I'll wait

The last time Marquette did polling for a midterm, they were spot on. They had the 2018 Gov race at tied.

Their 2020 poll had Biden +5 so off a little more, but they nearly nailed his margin. Problem was that they still had nearly 10% undecided.

[wbrocks67]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

He’s a two-term incumbent who outran the top of the ticket by 3-4 points the last time he was on the ballot (against a former senator, no less). He also has consistent trailed in polling before only to win comfortably.

Color me a bit skeptical if I don’t take polls showing him in a statistical tie as very good indicators for the Dems here. Maybe this cycle will buck the trend of polls underestimating Rs in WI, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Ron Johnson of 2022 is not the same Ron Johnson of 2016. And we are in an even more polarized environment than 6 years ago. I get your points, but some just don't apply in the same way anymore.

[wbrocks67]

Compare to him being a few points above water in 2016.

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1539669089731284993

[wbrocks67]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

Tell me why you believe the polling is more accurate than 2020. I'll wait

Not based solely on polling. Evenly divided polarized state with an incumbent who has gone from being a nondescript backbencher to a leading stop the steal wackado. Not saying Johnson can't win, just that this race is far more competitive than many here think.

I am not denying that the race will be competitive

What I am saying is that a June poll showing 46-44 can mean literally anything from 47-53 to 53-47 as a final November outcome

Well of course it can. But the point is that this is a tossup race and given that Barnes is not even that well known by the electorate, Johnson being behind right now is not a good look for him. However, that's a test for Barnes - he'll have to make sure he identifies himself to the electorate before Johnson does it for him

[wbrocks67]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

You've said this about every Republican candidate in a non-safe race.

Maybe the GOP should not try and keep outdoing themselves with all of these horrific candidates in WI, MI, and PA then.

[wbrocks67]

Obligatory -

Exactly what I expected.

Vance is going to underperform Trump by 5 in a year where polling is 9 points more favorable to R's compared to 2020. Here's some other things that "high quality" polls will likely show:

 - Barnes/Lasry will lead Johnson in WI
 - Fetterman will lead Oz in PA
 - Kelly will lead R's in AZ
 - R's will continue to hold miniscule 1-2 point lead in generic ballot

By election time, many people will be convinced the Democrats are favorites to hold the Senate and R's will get no more than 230 House seats. And the narrative will be because R's are "too extreme" while Dems all have good moderate candidates.

There's a middle ground here. No one is saying that Barnes is the favorite or Johnson can't win.

But again, the GOP candidates ARE far-right and ARE more extreme than they should be for their states, so that should be worth nothing, and IS important.