WI-SEN (Marquette): Barnes +2 / close races

[wbrocks67]

Barnes (D) 46%
Johnson (R) 44%

Godlewski (D) 45%
Johnson (R) 43%

Johnson (R) 45%
Lasry (D) 42%

Nelson (D) 44%
Johnson (R) 43%

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1539662995650818048

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1539665448890814464

[Matty]

I’m a bit skeptical to be honest

Barnes is not a good GE candidate and Johnson is an incumbent

[Minnesota Mike]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

[SnowLabrador]

The polling industry is dead. Go with the fundamentals. The undecideds are heavily GOP.

[Horus]

I’m a bit skeptical to be honest

Barnes is not a good GE candidate and Johnson is an incumbent

It's not that Barnes isn't a good candidate, it's that he's the most polarizing. He can win by more than the other guys but is also more likely to crash and burn.

[wbrocks67]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

Tell me why you believe the polling is more accurate than 2020. I'll wait

[Matty]

The polling industry is dead. Go with the fundamentals. The undecideds are heavily GOP.

To be fair, most of these polls we are seeing at this point are useless because of the high number of undecideds

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

Tell me why you believe the polling is more accurate than 2020. I'll wait

Not to answer for him, but post-2016 polling as been more accurate in non-presidential elections due to fewer invisible trump voters.

[UncleSam]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

He’s a two-term incumbent who outran the top of the ticket by 3-4 points the last time he was on the ballot (against a former senator, no less). He also has consistent trailed in polling before only to win comfortably.

Color me a bit skeptical if I don’t take polls showing him in a statistical tie as very good indicators for the Dems here. Maybe this cycle will buck the trend of polls underestimating Rs in WI, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

[wbrocks67]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

Tell me why you believe the polling is more accurate than 2020. I'll wait

The last time Marquette did polling for a midterm, they were spot on. They had the 2018 Gov race at tied.

Their 2020 poll had Biden +5 so off a little more, but they nearly nailed his margin. Problem was that they still had nearly 10% undecided.

[wbrocks67]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

He’s a two-term incumbent who outran the top of the ticket by 3-4 points the last time he was on the ballot (against a former senator, no less). He also has consistent trailed in polling before only to win comfortably.

Color me a bit skeptical if I don’t take polls showing him in a statistical tie as very good indicators for the Dems here. Maybe this cycle will buck the trend of polls underestimating Rs in WI, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Ron Johnson of 2022 is not the same Ron Johnson of 2016. And we are in an even more polarized environment than 6 years ago. I get your points, but some just don't apply in the same way anymore.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

He’s a two-term incumbent who outran the top of the ticket by 3-4 points the last time he was on the ballot (against a former senator, no less). He also has consistent trailed in polling before only to win comfortably.

Color me a bit skeptical if I don’t take polls showing him in a statistical tie as very good indicators for the Dems here. Maybe this cycle will buck the trend of polls underestimating Rs in WI, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Ron Johnson of 2022 is not the same Ron Johnson of 2016. And we are in an even more polarized environment than 6 years ago. I get your points, but some just don't apply in the same way anymore.

Yeah this is what I keep saying. Johnson was a strong conservative in 2016 but he wasn't saying the outrageously crazy things he is today

[UncleSam]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

He’s a two-term incumbent who outran the top of the ticket by 3-4 points the last time he was on the ballot (against a former senator, no less). He also has consistent trailed in polling before only to win comfortably.

Color me a bit skeptical if I don’t take polls showing him in a statistical tie as very good indicators for the Dems here. Maybe this cycle will buck the trend of polls underestimating Rs in WI, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Ron Johnson of 2022 is not the same Ron Johnson of 2016. And we are in an even more polarized environment than 6 years ago. I get your points, but some just don't apply in the same way anymore.

I guess what I’m saying is that I find it hard to believe he is less popular than Donald Trump, and in this political environment there’s no doubt Trump would be a strong favorite. Maybe in the last six years opinions on Johnson have really changed for the worse, but I seem to recall a bunch of terrible approval polls in 2016 for Johnson as well that ended up being a whole lot of smoke with no fire.

I’m not saying the race won’t be closer than the national swing might indicate, as polarization will definitely help bring down the final margin regardless of the winner. But I find it hard to believe that Barnes will actually win this race (or, honestly, be particularly close) come November.

[UncleSam]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

He’s a two-term incumbent who outran the top of the ticket by 3-4 points the last time he was on the ballot (against a former senator, no less). He also has consistent trailed in polling before only to win comfortably.

Color me a bit skeptical if I don’t take polls showing him in a statistical tie as very good indicators for the Dems here. Maybe this cycle will buck the trend of polls underestimating Rs in WI, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Ron Johnson of 2022 is not the same Ron Johnson of 2016. And we are in an even more polarized environment than 6 years ago. I get your points, but some just don't apply in the same way anymore.

Yeah this is what I keep saying. Johnson was a strong conservative in 2016 but he wasn't saying the outrageously crazy things he is today

Can you elaborate? I don’t think I’ve ever heard anybody say a single nice thing about Ron Johnson in either 2016 or 2022, and I am unfamiliar with what has really changed with him as a candidate between the two years.

[Horus]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

Tell me why you believe the polling is more accurate than 2020. I'll wait

Polling was much more accurate in the 2018 midterms than in either presidential race. I'm not saying I agree with MM but there's an argument to be made that without Trump on the ballot polling is more reliable.

[wbrocks67]

Compare to him being a few points above water in 2016.

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1539669089731284993

[Minnesota Mike]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

Tell me why you believe the polling is more accurate than 2020. I'll wait

Not based solely on polling. Evenly divided polarized state with an incumbent who has gone from being a nondescript backbencher to a leading stop the steal wackado. Not saying Johnson can't win, just that this race is far more competitive than many here think.

[Matty]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

Tell me why you believe the polling is more accurate than 2020. I'll wait

Not based solely on polling. Evenly divided polarized state with an incumbent who has gone from being a nondescript backbencher to a leading stop the steal wackado. Not saying Johnson can't win, just that this race is far more competitive than many here think.

I am not denying that the race will be competitive

What I am saying is that a June poll showing 46-44 can mean literally anything from 47-53 to 53-47 as a final November outcome

[wbrocks67]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

Tell me why you believe the polling is more accurate than 2020. I'll wait

Not based solely on polling. Evenly divided polarized state with an incumbent who has gone from being a nondescript backbencher to a leading stop the steal wackado. Not saying Johnson can't win, just that this race is far more competitive than many here think.

I am not denying that the race will be competitive

What I am saying is that a June poll showing 46-44 can mean literally anything from 47-53 to 53-47 as a final November outcome

Well of course it can. But the point is that this is a tossup race and given that Barnes is not even that well known by the electorate, Johnson being behind right now is not a good look for him. However, that's a test for Barnes - he'll have to make sure he identifies himself to the electorate before Johnson does it for him

[Minnesota Mike]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

Tell me why you believe the polling is more accurate than 2020. I'll wait

Not based solely on polling. Evenly divided polarized state with an incumbent who has gone from being a nondescript backbencher to a leading stop the steal wackado. Not saying Johnson can't win, just that this race is far more competitive than many here think.

I am not denying that the race will be competitive

What I am saying is that a June poll showing 46-44 can mean literally anything from 47-53 to 53-47 as a final November outcome

Nobody is disputing that. This poll is only one data point among many things that point to a close race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ha we will win WI😊😊😊

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’m a bit skeptical to be honest

Barnes is not a good GE candidate and Johnson is an incumbent

Lol he is a socialist like Cory Booker and WARNOCK  and Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012,  users keep talking about Barnes are unaware we have two Socialist Blk Senators and Eric Adams is a socialist too

[Politician]

*eyerolls*

It's a Wisconsin poll in June. Haven't we seen this movie enough times already?

[Politician]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

You've said this about every Republican candidate in a non-safe race.