VA-GOV (WaPo-Schar): McAuliffe +1

[wbrocks67]

LV: McAuliffe 49, Youngkin 48
RV: McAuliffe 47, Youngkin 44

Dems: 97-1 McAuliffe
Reps: 94-6 Youngkin
Independents: 56-38 Youngkin
Men: 57-40 Youngkin
Women: 56-40 McAuliffe
Whites: 57-41 Youngkin
Blacks: 86-7 McAuliffe
Suburbs: 52-45 McAuliffe

Biden approval: 46/53 (-7) LV
Northam approval: 51/44 (+7) LV

AG race - Herring 50, Miyares 44
LG race - Ayala 50, Sears 46

[wbrocks67]

62% of Virginia voters say they are either no different or more likely to vote for Youngkin because of Trump.

Big L for the McAuliffe campaign.

Not sure how that tracks. You still have way more 'less likely' than 'more likely'. The 'makes no difference' could be people who already hated trump or already loved trump - you just don't know, so that part is kind of irrelevant.

[wbrocks67]

When you balance for WaPo’s bias (Biden +18 in Wisconsin!), this confirms the Fox new poll. Likely Youngkin.

That was ABC + Wapo, wasn't it? Not sure if there is a polling distinction, but I think Wapo + Schar do VA specifically and only.

I will say, the Wapo/Schar VA poll has nailed the race both in 2017 and 2020. We'll see if that continues.

[wbrocks67]

Among all registered voters, the poll finds similar shares of Youngkin (85 percent) and McAuliffe (82 percent) supporters saying they are certain to vote or voted early.

There doesn't appear to be an enthusiasm edge here, which is what the Fox poll found. Early voting seems to suggest what this poll does - both sides are engaged.

[wbrocks67]

Also in a H2H RV matchup without Blanding, McAuliffe is +4, 49-45.

[wbrocks67]

Young voters are a key demographic for Democrats, but McAuliffe’s advantage is declining sharply. McAuliffe has a 10-point edge among likely voters under age 40, down from a 21-point advantage last month. That’s also smaller than Biden’s 25-point margin among this group in 2020 exit polling and Biden’s 33-point lead in the final Post-Schar School poll that year.


This still feels unlikely to me, unless there is just a total collapse in turnout for younger voters. That's definitely plausible, but that's quite a dip.

[wbrocks67]

Wanted to see where T-Mac was falling short compared to Herring/Ayala.

Looks like biggest discrepancies come from Independents, but also Moderates.

However, looks like T-Mac also room to grow with nonwhites and blacks, as they're giving Rs similar level of support, but Dems range from 86% for T-Mac to 92% for Ayala. There's more Blanding/undecided voters in the GOV race than the two other races.

Interesting to note too that even among 18-39 voters, Ayala is at +16, while T-Mac is 10%.

Democrats
McAuliffe +96 (97-1)
Herring +94 (96-2)
Ayala +95 (97-2)

Independent
Youngkin +18 (56-38)
Miyares +9 (50-41)
Sears +10 (51-41)

Moderates
McAuliffe +15 (55-40)
Herring +25 (57-32)
Ayala +20 (55-35)

Males
Youngkin +17 (57-40)
Miyares +12 (53-41)
Sears +13 (54-41)

Females
McAuliffe +16 (56-40)
Herring +20 (57-37)
Ayala +18 (57-39)

Whites
Youngkin +16 (57-41)
Miyares +13 (54-41)
Sears +15 (55-40)

Nonwhites
McAuliffe +58 (76-16)
Herring +67 (80-13)
Ayala +67 (82-15)

Blacks
McAuliffe +79 (86-7)
Herring +86 (91-5)
Ayala +86 (92-6)

Age 18-39
McAuliffe +10 (52-42)
Herring +13 (53-40)
Ayala +16 (56-40)

White college +
McAuliffe +10 (54-44)
Herring +13 (53-40)
Ayala +9 (51-42)

Biden voters
McAuliffe +83 (89-6)
Herring +84 (90-6)
Ayala +85 (91-6)

[wbrocks67]

D+7 is not really unheard of.

2017's race was D+11 actually (D 41, R 30) while 2020, with Trump on the ballot was D+2.

So at the minimum you'd think it'd be at least D+2, while D+7 is in the middle of 2017 and 2020, which is also plausible.

What doesn't seem plausible is Fox's universe of R+4.

[wbrocks67]

Also interesting that Biden's approval here is -7, which is close to the -8 that Fox RV poll found. Makes me think again the Fox RV panel is much closer to reality than their LV.

[wbrocks67]

wbrocks, can you at least admit you “critique” certain polls more than others?

I.e you are more credulous towards polls that are better for mcauliffe

I don't think I was "critiquing" the Fox poll, just saying what everyone else has said - the LV model is a clear outlier but their RV poll actually lines up perfectly with what we've been seeing. That's fair.

I'm more inclined to believe this poll since Wapo/Schar has an impeccable track record in VA.