VA-GOV (WaPo-Schar): McAuliffe +1

[RogueBeaver]

49/48

[Senator Incitatus]

Was +3 in July (+6 with RV), which is less movement than I’d expect. The plot thickens.

[wbrocks67]

LV: McAuliffe 49, Youngkin 48
RV: McAuliffe 47, Youngkin 44

Dems: 97-1 McAuliffe
Reps: 94-6 Youngkin
Independents: 56-38 Youngkin
Men: 57-40 Youngkin
Women: 56-40 McAuliffe
Whites: 57-41 Youngkin
Blacks: 86-7 McAuliffe
Suburbs: 52-45 McAuliffe

Biden approval: 46/53 (-7) LV
Northam approval: 51/44 (+7) LV

AG race - Herring 50, Miyares 44
LG race - Ayala 50, Sears 46

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... wasn't expecting this. 

[ElectionsGuy]

62% of Virginia voters say they are either no different or more likely to vote for Youngkin because of Trump.

Big L for the McAuliffe campaign.

[Lief 🗽]

When you balance for WaPo’s bias (Biden +18 in Wisconsin!), this confirms the Fox new poll. Likely Youngkin.

[wbrocks67]

62% of Virginia voters say they are either no different or more likely to vote for Youngkin because of Trump.

Big L for the McAuliffe campaign.

Not sure how that tracks. You still have way more 'less likely' than 'more likely'. The 'makes no difference' could be people who already hated trump or already loved trump - you just don't know, so that part is kind of irrelevant.

[wbrocks67]

When you balance for WaPo’s bias (Biden +18 in Wisconsin!), this confirms the Fox new poll. Likely Youngkin.

That was ABC + Wapo, wasn't it? Not sure if there is a polling distinction, but I think Wapo + Schar do VA specifically and only.

I will say, the Wapo/Schar VA poll has nailed the race both in 2017 and 2020. We'll see if that continues.

[ElectionsGuy]

62% of Virginia voters say they are either no different or more likely to vote for Youngkin because of Trump.

Big L for the McAuliffe campaign.

Not sure how that tracks. You still have way more 'less likely' than 'more likely'. The 'makes no difference' could be people who already hated trump or already loved trump - you just don't know, so that part is kind of irrelevant.

Those 37% are Democrats who are already voting for McAuliffe - nearly all of them. It's pretty obvious.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

The field work for this was 20-26... so I wonder has it failed to pick up late momentum for Youngkin.

[Gass3268]

LV: McAuliffe 49, Youngkin 48
RV: McAuliffe 47, Youngkin 44

Dems: 97-1 McAuliffe
Reps: 94-6 Youngkin
Independents: 56-38 Youngkin
Men: 57-40 Youngkin
Women: 56-40 McAuliffe
Whites: 57-41 Youngkin
Blacks: 86-7 McAuliffe
Suburbs: 52-45 McAuliffe

Biden approval: 46/53 (-7) LV
Northam approval: 51/44 (+7) LV

AG race - Herring 50, Miyares 44
LG race - Ayala 50, Sears 46

Possibility of Virginia pulling a MA/MD/VT? Democrats everywhere but a Republican governor to "keep them in check"?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fox poll was trash

[Mr.Phips]

LV: McAuliffe 49, Youngkin 48
RV: McAuliffe 47, Youngkin 44

Dems: 97-1 McAuliffe
Reps: 94-6 Youngkin
Independents: 56-38 Youngkin
Men: 57-40 Youngkin
Women: 56-40 McAuliffe
Whites: 57-41 Youngkin
Blacks: 86-7 McAuliffe
Suburbs: 52-45 McAuliffe

Biden approval: 46/53 (-7) LV
Northam approval: 51/44 (+7) LV

AG race - Herring 50, Miyares 44
LG race - Ayala 50, Sears 46

Possibility of Virginia pulling a MA/MD/VT? Democrats everywhere but a Republican governor to "keep them in check"?

Difference here is that Dems could actually lose the state house of delegates.

[Gass3268]

The field work for this was 20-26... so I wonder has it failed to pick up late momentum for Youngkin.

The Fox Poll was 24-27, so essentially the same timeframe.

[wbrocks67]

Among all registered voters, the poll finds similar shares of Youngkin (85 percent) and McAuliffe (82 percent) supporters saying they are certain to vote or voted early.

There doesn't appear to be an enthusiasm edge here, which is what the Fox poll found. Early voting seems to suggest what this poll does - both sides are engaged.

[wbrocks67]

Also in a H2H RV matchup without Blanding, McAuliffe is +4, 49-45.

[Skill and Chance]

LV: McAuliffe 49, Youngkin 48
RV: McAuliffe 47, Youngkin 44

Dems: 97-1 McAuliffe
Reps: 94-6 Youngkin
Independents: 56-38 Youngkin
Men: 57-40 Youngkin
Women: 56-40 McAuliffe
Whites: 57-41 Youngkin
Blacks: 86-7 McAuliffe
Suburbs: 52-45 McAuliffe

Biden approval: 46/53 (-7) LV
Northam approval: 51/44 (+7) LV

AG race - Herring 50, Miyares 44
LG race - Ayala 50, Sears 46

Possibility of Virginia pulling a MA/MD/VT? Democrats everywhere but a Republican governor to "keep them in check"?

Difference here is that Dems could actually lose the state house of delegates.

IDK there could plausibly be a late shift to ensure a "check on Youngkin" if the top of the ticket is seen as a forgone conclusion?   LA-GOV 2015 and MD-GOV 2014 didn't translate to the legislature much at all.

[MT Treasurer]

Nothing more amusing than WaPo reaching out to "reasonable middle-of-the-road 'swing' voters":

Arjun Harer, 23, considers himself a Republican but could not support Trump last year and voted for Biden. Now he’s underwhelmed by Biden’s performance, particularly his decision to pull troops from Afghanistan, but voted for McAuliffe anyway. His primary reason: Youngkin was endorsed by Trump.

“I realized this is not my type of Republican,” Harer said.

Must be the spiritual brother of those suburban Atlanta "swing voters" who will totally vote for the "right" Republican (just not David Perdue) in a Biden midterm and whose regular support for Democratic candidates definitely isn’t ingrained in their political/personal identity.

Up next: "Why Biden's unpopularity among Trump/Boozman/Hill/Hutchinson/Cotton Democrats in Arkansas spells trouble for the Democratic Party in 2022"

[AncestralDemocrat.]

The field work for this was 20-26... so I wonder has it failed to pick up late momentum for Youngkin.

The Fox Poll was 24-27, so essentially the same timeframe.

Well, chuck both into the average anyway.. it's a tossup race.

[wbrocks67]

Young voters are a key demographic for Democrats, but McAuliffe’s advantage is declining sharply. McAuliffe has a 10-point edge among likely voters under age 40, down from a 21-point advantage last month. That’s also smaller than Biden’s 25-point margin among this group in 2020 exit polling and Biden’s 33-point lead in the final Post-Schar School poll that year.


This still feels unlikely to me, unless there is just a total collapse in turnout for younger voters. That's definitely plausible, but that's quite a dip.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh. This is not good.

We can dismiss individual polls for certain reason, but looking at the whole picture, I have a feeling the combination of poor Dem turnout and Biden's relative unpopularity is making this race much tighter than it should be. Looks like this is a tossup as of now. Still think McAuliffe will pull it off, it won't be by much though.

[Senator Incitatus]

The field work for this was 20-26... so I wonder has it failed to pick up late momentum for Youngkin.

The Fox Poll was 24-27, so essentially the same timeframe.

Well, chuck both into the average anyway.. it's a tossup race.

How are you averaging +8 and -1 (not to mention a handful of other Youngkin leads) and getting a toss-up?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Trend since Sep 7-13

RV:
McAuliffe 47 (-2)
Youngkin 44 (+1)

LV:
McAuliffe 49 (-1)
Youngkin 48 (+1)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The field work for this was 20-26... so I wonder has it failed to pick up late momentum for Youngkin.

The Fox Poll was 24-27, so essentially the same timeframe.

Well, chuck both into the average anyway.. it's a tossup race.

How are you averaging +8 and -1 (not to mention a handful of other Youngkin leads) and getting a toss-up?

It's Youngkin +0.9 per RCP.
It's T-Mac +0.1 per 538 (though without this poll).

Polls, indeed, indicate, it's a toss-up.

[Chips]

This is a rather sharp contrast to that Fox News poll. Still, it's only a +1 for McAuliffe so it's not all great for him as well as the fact that only like two of the last 10 polls has had McAuliffe up by more than 1. It's either been +1 exactly or a tie for most of them.