Monmouth-VA- tie, youngkin +3, mcauliffe +3

[wbrocks67]

The truly hilarious part is that on this day in 2017, Monmouth had a poll out with Gillepsie closing in, with a +1 lead-

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_va_101717/

IDK if history is repeating itself with this race but it's almost scary that it's seeming like a total 2017 redux.

If this poll is true, then McAuliffe and the Dems need to go into overdrive on Youngkin. How T-Mac has a net zero fav rating while Youngkin somehow has +12 (which is a tad unbelievable) is insane. I'm sure there's other nuances here like Reps hating T-Mac more than Dems hate Youngkin, but still.

Wild swings in Indie and Women samples as well, too. But that's not out of the ordinary for Monmouth.

[wbrocks67]

Good god Biden get it together.  He’s seriously going to cost Dems this race.

How is Biden going to cost Dems the race? Pretty sure he's not a Senator who's voting on bills and holding things up.

[wbrocks67]

Hm, it also has a college-ed rate that is not only lower than 2017, but also 2013

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1450876886247215112

[wbrocks67]

McAuliffe is going to win and it’s not going to be a nail biter. Polls for this race are useless asf and being used to drive a horse race narrative.

Atlas: 2020 proves that we shouldn't pay attention to polls, since they're useless. Just look at fundamentals and trust your gut!

Also Atlas: Polls show a close race in Virginia. Welp, that settles that, it's a Toss-Up at best, anyone who says otherwise is living in denial.

Why are Atlas D's just completely ignoring the most glaring fact of the current national environment.. Biden's approval is literally at borderline 43%.

What is achieved by ignoring this.

Because some posters here like to cherrypick polls and act like others (i.e. the Fox poll from last week) just don't exist. Because it doesn't fit their "dems in disarray" narrative.

Also,

n 2017, you had at least a few polls that indicated Northam would win by more than 5,

Yeah, a few. Only 4 out of 12 of the most recent 2017 polls had Northam 5 or up. That's pretty much the same here - and not only that, not a great comparison since we're getting considerably less polling this time around.

[wbrocks67]

This poll is projecting turnout to be higher than 2020... which is a little strange.

Where do you see that?

It's also worth noting that Monmouth's poll of the 2017 race around this time had the competition at Gillespie +1, but I doubt this little nugget of a caveat will temper the inevitable dooming that is about to happen here.

Simply put, 1 of 20 polls should be outside of MOE, thus you'll always find "bad" polls.

With that said, D were underestimated in 2017, and it might happen again. A difference though, that this time there is an unpopular (D) Pr, instead of unpopular (R).

No, this was a Monmouth specific problem. Their second to last poll in 2017 had Gillepsie +1, and their last poll in 2017 still only had Northam +2.

[wbrocks67]

Wbrocks still desperately unskewing polls.

I think you've got the wrong definition of unskewing. Looking at a polls demographics and whether they're realistic or not is not the same thing as unskewing.

[wbrocks67]

Atlas is again overreacting to one poll. T-Mac even managed to win in 2013, when Obama was close to the lowest point of his presidency in terms of approval rating and when Virginia was less of a blue state than today. T-Mac will win by mid or high single digits.

He was leading in the polls by 6 then.

I don't get how it's prudent to go back to 2013. Polling was a completely different machine with a total different coalition in VA as well.

If we're supposed to ignore 2017 polling, then 2013 should really be ignored.

The one major thing about 2013 and even 2017 polling is that Democrats base and turned more and more into the White College+ vote, and that's the major thing to look at, since those are the folks who turn out in these elections.

And despite Biden's issues right now, he's still running strongly with that group.

[wbrocks67]

In 2013, D underperformed by 4 with unpopular D pres.
In 2017, R underperformed by 6 with even more unpopular R pres.

Biden's net approval is about the same as Obama had in 2013.

The unpopular president has no bearing on the polling and how well it held up. Don't see how that's even a factor.

[wbrocks67]

The fact that most undecideds are nonwhite does favor Ds, however this is a warning sign for Tmac's campaign to keep pushing turnout in NOVA/Tidewater to secure the mansion/state legislature.

Noticed this too. Black voters were 12% undecided, compared to virtually no Whites. And it doesn't seem like they lean R, either - there's a block who are decided in the HOD race but not Gov race.

Blacks are at 80% for T-Mac but 87% for Ds in HOD. Democrats overall are at 91% for T-Mac but 97% for Ds in HOD races. So I can't imagine those voters won't come home in the end.

[wbrocks67]

Atlas is again overreacting to one poll. T-Mac even managed to win in 2013, when Obama was close to the lowest point of his presidency in terms of approval rating and when Virginia was less of a blue state than today. T-Mac will win by mid or high single digits.

VA GOVERNOR EXIT POLL 2013
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final%5B1%5D.copy.pdf
Obama JA was 46/53

Bidens is worse though, the Country was less polarized and hadn't been through a Pandemic!

Depends what poll you're looking at. If you'd average all of them out, they probably equal about -3 or -4 in VA right now.

[wbrocks67]

Wbrocks still desperately unskewing polls.

I think you've got the wrong definition of unskewing. Looking at a polls demographics and whether they're realistic or not is not the same thing as unskewing.

The problem is that you never go 'hmm, this subsample is too favorable for Democrats, I need to adjust the topline more to the Republican'. Polling is by nature random and can be prone to extreme subsamples. However on average there should be no bias to any party across subsamples, which is why it's regarded as foolish to 'unskew'. Anyone can play that game, finding subsamples, and adjusting the poll to their preferred party. The end result is that you consistently overestimate Democrats. I think anyone on the 2020 polling boards remembers you claiming constantly that polling was underestimating Biden, the same polling that massively overestimated him.

Note though-

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1443226460483776512

Wait did Wbrocks just unskew a poll in favor of R's.

In defense he did do it a few weeks ago.

Thanks. I'm not trying to "unskew" for either side, but if there's a glaring issue with the composite of the poll, it's worth being brought up.

Just like with the CNU or Roanoke or whatever polls they had a TOO educated of a sample, this one is a bit too low of an education sample. Not unskewing, just fact.

[wbrocks67]

Just when I was stating to feel better about this race...I'm not convinced Youngkin will win but I really don't like when more doubt starts setting in.

It sucks that McAuliffe isn't pulling away with this in polling like I had thought, but it is in fact possible that polling will end up the biggest loser of this race, even more than Youngkin, if McAuliffe over-performs his polling. Perhaps in moving the goal posts so much to make this race look competitive, McAuliffe's win will look more impressive. Or maybe these close polls will scare Democrats into turning out more. I don't know, I just can't shake my confidence that McAuliffe will still win. I just don't know by how much, and I just want this race to end already so we can know and stop all the damn speculating.

Also I hate these Schrodinger polls that hedge their bets so much. Is it really that helpful to have both McAuliffe and Youngkin up by the same amount, in addition to a tie? I mean, no s***! Just commit to a decisive result!

It's all the same feeling in 2017 at this time when pundits were all saying Northam was blowing that race because MS-13 was supposed to be a major issue that campaign, and polls at the time mostly said it was close to a dead heat.

Not sure who expected T-Mac to be "running away with it" though in a Biden midterm.

[wbrocks67]

something something 2017 something something

After four years of uninterrupted D success under one of the most divisive Republican Presidents in history who energized Democrats and suburbanites to previously unseen levels, Democrats really seem to have a hard time coming to terms with the fact that they man they depended on is... no longer in the White House.

McAuliffe probably still wins this race because of mere partisanship, but anyone who seriously thinks that this is more of a referendum on Trump than it is a referendum on VA Democrats/national Democrats/Biden is deliberately ignoring reality.

I think you're 100% correct.  It's pretty obvious that Likely VA voters are motivated by their opposition  to Joe Biden and National Democrat policies.  Almost 60% of independents and 10% of Democrats disapprove of Joe Biden Biden.  It seems like a lot more minorities are either going to stay home or vote for Youngkin on November 2.  And I wouldn't be surprised if Youngkin won. 

Youngkin has 6% of the black vote here, which would be 6% less than what Gillepsie got in 2017 (12%)