Texas 2022 megathread

[wbrocks67]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

These types of comments make no sense. You're living in your own bubble if you don't think people are fed up and have had enough with the lack of any type of common sense gun control - and the objectively terrible way Abbott has handled his free for all gun issues for years. It's not just "Austin" who is upset and glad that somebody finally spoke up and called him out on the issue.

[wbrocks67]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

These types of comments make no sense. You're living in your own bubble if you don't think people are fed up and have had enough with the lack of any type of common sense gun control - and the objectively terrible way Abbott has handled his free for all gun issues for years. It's not just "Austin" who is upset and glad that somebody finally spoke up and called him out on the issue.

The country has overall moved pretty significantly to the right on the issue of guns in the past few decades. And exploiting people’s deaths for a political stunt plays pretty poorly nearly everywhere in Texas.

See how the background checks ballot initiative did in Maine or Nevada in 2016 (two pro gun states like Texas…. but also much bluer than Texas, especially Maine).

I’m definitely not the one living in a bubble here.

You can't compare 2016 to 2022 at this point, especially given everything that has happened since then.

[wbrocks67]

Polling coming today from CBS/YouGov

https://twitter.com/cbs11jack/status/1542493564977954816

[wbrocks67]

For comparison sake, CBS/YouGOv's last poll of TX in 2020 was in September and had Trump +2 (48-46), so not extremely helpful since it was still a month and a half before the election. They nailed Bidens % though.

[wbrocks67]

Abbott has an insane warchest so he needs every dollar he can get

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1547944086216138752?s=20&t=nYJ9FVtx...

[wbrocks67]

Once again, I maintain that Abbott is lucky his still in a red-leaning state. He is constantly doing every single thing he can to screw this up for himself. He's certainly giving Beto plenty of things to campaign on.

https://twitter.com/NewDay/status/1548990119104970752

[wbrocks67]

NYT: After Recent Turmoil, the Race for Texas Governor Is Tightening

But in recent weeks there has been a perceptible shift in Texas, as registered in several public polls and some internal campaign surveys, after the school shooting in Uvalde that killed 19 children and two teachers and the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on abortion, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, that brought back into force a 1925 law banning all abortions except when the woman’s life is at risk.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/24/us/texas-governor-campaign-abbott-orourke.html?

[wbrocks67]

Republicans in here may continue to say things about Beto, but he communicates like a real person. He responds to things like a *real person*, which I think is endearing. Much like the Abbott press conference, he was the only who was willing to stop the robotics and call Abbott out and speak to how real people are feeling about this. Same to this, he didn't care if he cursed or whatever, he just called him the hell out.

Personally I think things like this, where politicians are relatable to real people, and act like real people, are endearing, but that's just me.

[wbrocks67]

I feel sort of about this race the same way I do about GA. In that, I think Abrams and O'Rourke still have ground to make up, but the two feel like they have more momentum right now than they did a month ago.

[wbrocks67]

It took Abbott nearly 3 months to bother visiting with the families.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1558586627160776705

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/astridgalvan/status/1559182227442917376

[wbrocks67]

Seems the GOP is following the same playbook here in many races - start out with a "positive" ad filled with photographs and (a lot of the time) narrated by that candidates wife/fiancee, etc.

The question I have is - Abbott has been around for a while, so for him to have to still be airing bio ads at this point is curious.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1559520136603762689

[wbrocks67]

I just got a YouTube ad from Collin Allred.
Nothing from Beto yet.

Beto is apparently not up on TV yet, which is concerning imo.

[wbrocks67]

Good.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1560327487279796226

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the dynamics of this will be interesting. Abbott seems like he really did go under the radar in 2018, whether it be because he was less right-wing extreme back then, or people just didn't care about the race b/c they assumed Valdez would lose. But it certainly feels as if the same thing with Johnson et. al is happening to him a bit, where people are waking up to realize he's not the same candidate they thought he was (or ignorantly thought he was) in the last election cycle.

[wbrocks67]

Is Abbott even campaigning? It feels like he's doing nothing.

[wbrocks67]

Is Abbott even campaigning? It feels like he's doing nothing.

Well he is doing this...
https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1562484436188680194?s=20&t=6EN2B_uT...

Good to see he's not a total ghoul.

[wbrocks67]

Why does Beto's campaign think it's a good idea to run on gun control in not just any red state but Texas of all places! It isn't going to gain him any votes either, but could turnoff many swing voters.

Because the Texas of 2022 isn't the Texas of the 90s? It's still a lean R state but it's not some conservative bastion anymore and "swing voters" actually care about gun control measures.

[wbrocks67]

Why does Beto's campaign think it's a good idea to run on gun control in not just any red state but Texas of all places! It isn't going to gain him any votes either, but could turnoff many swing voters.

Because the Texas of 2022 isn't the Texas of the 90s? It's still a lean R state but it's not some conservative bastion anymore and "swing voters" actually care about gun control measures.

The people who support gun control were already voting Democrats. No one is a single issue anti-gun voter, they are likely to be liberal on most other issues. However, a state like Texas there are many people who will be turned off by that. It's not even like it's just a policy in his platform. Beto is making gun control the cornerstone of his campaign and seems to be embracing his "Hell yes" comments and that will likely hurt him.

Given the situation in Uvalde, I would imagine that is likely a pretty good message at this point.

[wbrocks67]

I'm always one to not make a big fuss over crowd size because I see how people used it to say Bernie was going to win in 2016 or 2020, but I think there is a *there* there here with Beto's crowds.

Beto is going to even dark red territory and getting people excited and getting a ton of people show up. Abbott appears to not even be actively campaigning, let alone going to blue or dark blue territory.

[wbrocks67]

I could buy this becoming a real race. Abbott is becoming insanely ghoulish at this point.

https://twitter.com/0liviajulianna/status/1565858488177270784

[wbrocks67]

I don't imagine this is a PAC in favor of Abbott

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1568022886908313600

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1568216448291454976

[wbrocks67]

Gregg Abbott to campaign with Nikki Haley tomorrow. We have seen a flurry of Campaign Events by Haley for various Candidates endorsed by her "Stand for America" SuperPac as of late. On this Board here Haley was all but written off for 2024 BUT if something happens to DeSantis or Trump she and her fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott maybe the best bet.

I don't get why the GOP thinks anyone actually cares about Nikki Haley.

[wbrocks67]

Beto absolutely demolished Greg Abbott at the debate but I don’t think that’ll be enough to tip the scales at all. I remember coming away from the first 2016 debate with that impression about Clinton vs Trump and we all know how that turned out.

Yeah, the thing is I think the debate will help Beto amp up his side, but most normies do not watch these things.