Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[wbrocks67]

IDK, given how much of a dumpster fire this GOP primary already seems to be, and Cameron seeming pretty weak surprisingly at this point, Beshear may be in even better shape than I thought.

[wbrocks67]

No way in hell am I voting for Beshear again.

He's probably toast in November.

Why not?

[wbrocks67]

Beshear has a 60/34 approval rating, per Morning Consult (from Q4 2022)

https://morningconsult.com/2023/01/12/kentucky-beshear-ranks-as-most-popular-democratic-governor/

[wbrocks67]

Even after the COVID crap?

Surprisingly, it's not that big an issue to everyone. You might need to realize that to avoid disappointment.

Trust me, we won't forget.

Since when was Beshear dinged for his handling of COVID? He consistently had high approvals throughout the peak...

[wbrocks67]

Since when was Beshear dinged for his handling of COVID? He consistently had high approvals throughout the peak...

He shut down the state.

Every state got "shut down." COVID was a difficult time and people were trying to figure everything out. People need to stop being so immature and holding all of this against people. You're a governor doing a global pandemic, you do what you think is right. Cut them a break. I'd rather a governor who tried to do what he/she thought was right and protect people. It's 2023. Get over it.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO I love how Fetterman just won a swing state by 5 and somehow he's a bad thing for a GOP candidate lmao

[wbrocks67]

Craft really flopped, wow. Though Cameron being such a well known statewide figure should not have even made this into a question.

[wbrocks67]

Cameron ended up being a terrible recruit; these tweets and videos are like parody.

[wbrocks67]

Hate to say this, but Beshear seems like a slight favorite now. This is despite Beshear being no different than a generic Democrat, who imposed extremely harsh COVID restrictions.

Ryan Brune's take seems to be Beshear winning by 2, like Kelly and Edwards. That seems about right.

Maybe voters may actually want to reward someone for trying to keep them safe!

[wbrocks67]

This is really the best the GOP has? Beshear comes off totally normal in his ads while Cameron's ads are all more stuff like this. I get this is KY after all, but no wonder Cameron is sort of flatlining

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1692169704616378734

[wbrocks67]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

I would buy on Cameron. Even if he doesn't win, I'm guessing his odds improve close to Election Day.

Do they though? We're only 2 months out at this point, months removed from the primary, and Cameron has done pretty much nothing to improve his position. He kind of wasted the summer. If he's just going to be talking about culture wars for the next 60 days...

[wbrocks67]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

I would buy on Cameron. Even if he doesn't win, I'm guessing his odds improve close to Election Day.

Do they though? We're only 2 months out at this point, months removed from the primary, and Cameron has done pretty much nothing to improve his position. He kind of wasted the summer. If he's just going to be talking about culture wars for the next 60 days...

Again, Cameron knows what his base wants. He'll deliver it, and they'll vote for him. Beshear is an underdog.

Yet polling isn't showing that. You have such a pessimistic attitude.

Exactly - if this was a run of the mill election for like senate or something, then yes, probably that is true, but this race is clearly different - people approve of Beshear, they like him. So going after him in this particular way doesn't seem to be doing Cameron any favors because it all just sounds like nonsense when they actually *like* Beshear already.

[wbrocks67]

It's almost as if the GOP/Cameron are barely trying:

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1699816002136002932

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/BGPolitics/status/1701795601711517816

[wbrocks67]

This is all he has? Cameron seriously just screams lame. He just doesn't have the juice.

https://twitter.com/DanielCameronAG/status/1704528188989182090

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1704508062881448325

[wbrocks67]

The problem here is that we lost Roe v. Wade under the Democrats. If I was President last year when Roe v. Wade was gutted, I would have had a remedy ready by the end of the weekend, maybe even by the end of the evening. Even after Roe v. Wade was gutted, the Democrats still did not codify Roe v. Wade when they had the chance.

I think the Democrats still control the 2 major cities in Kentucky and a few rural counties too. Are they doing anything to safeguard abortion rights in these places?

So basically this issue has become a fundraising cudgel for the Democrats. They talk a lot, but haven't done anything.

Not trying to derail this thread, but do you know how the US Senate works? You need 60 votes to codify Roe.

There is no unilateral solution to Roe v Wade going down. This is really giving "do something" crowd vibes.

[wbrocks67]

The problem here is that we lost Roe v. Wade under the Democrats. If I was President last year when Roe v. Wade was gutted, I would have had a remedy ready by the end of the weekend, maybe even by the end of the evening. Even after Roe v. Wade was gutted, the Democrats still did not codify Roe v. Wade when they had the chance.

I think the Democrats still control the 2 major cities in Kentucky and a few rural counties too. Are they doing anything to safeguard abortion rights in these places?

So basically this issue has become a fundraising cudgel for the Democrats. They talk a lot, but haven't done anything.

Not trying to derail this thread, but do you know how the US Senate works? You need 60 votes to codify Roe.

There is no unilateral solution to Roe v Wade going down. This is really giving "do something" crowd vibes.

Why didn't they codify Roe in 2009 then?  There were 60 Dems + at least 3 pro-choice R's (Murkowski, Collins and Snowe) in the senate at the time.

A ton of those Dems were not pro-choice Dems, especially given there were still many more red state Dems back then. And I don't even think that Murkowski or Collins would've went along with it back then either.

[wbrocks67]

Anecdotally: I have been driving around the state recently and seen probably hundreds of Beshear signs. In cities, suburbs, rural areas, small towns alike. Not a single Cameron sign. Some of these Beshear signs are even next to Trump signs.

Now you might say that yard signs don't mean much, that liberals/Democrats are more likely to be politically engaged anyway, etc. (Although that doesn't explain the ones next to Trump signs.) But all I can say is that, driving through Ohio and Michigan in October 2016, that's when I started to get really worried that Trump could win because I saw Trump sign after Trump sign and no Hillary signs. Seems the enthusiasm is on Beshear's side, and even Cameron's Republican voters by and large aren't thrilled with him. Not saying they won't come out to vote for him, but I am increasingly doubting it will be enough. At this point I now expect Beshear to win by a significantly bigger margin than last time, if not by the landslide margin some polls are showing.

I don't want to sound delusional because this is Kentucky after all, but a mid-sized Beshear win doesn't sound as unthinkable anymore as it once was. Like 10% may be too much, but like Beshear 5-10% seems more likely now than it did before.

[wbrocks67]

The spending disparity is still pretty wild

$24M for Ds to $16M for Rs... in Kentucky of all places. Also, the campaigns spending is even more wild. Beshear's campaign has spent nearly $10M. Cameron barely $1.5M.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1711160994662080559

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1712120627782427057

[wbrocks67]

In KY I am definitly waiting on the Louisville Courier-Journal Mason-Dixon Poll. Beshear ain't winning by 16 Points like the Emerson Poll is suggesting.

Weird thing about this is Emerson usually leans pretty R.

I would hesitate to project from LA to KY or vice versa given recent history, including the abortion votes in each state which were dramatically different.  I would say tonight increases the probability of a Beshear collapse in EKY, but a lot of that was already baked in.

Emerson hasn't always leaned R for the 2024 cycle: I'm sure this poll is probably underestimating Trump a little.



The topline Trump vs Biden result in this same poll seems to lean a little R though - it shows Trump 55 - Biden 26, which is about R +36 in two-party share.

Emerson is simply a hot mess all around, whoever they are showing a lead for.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1714661615940042944

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1714675611342364702

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1715392181996036114