OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1560306935244677126

[wbrocks67]

And people really doubt that Ryan may have been up in this race?

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1560349310809542656

[wbrocks67]

Good ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1562839155226382336

[wbrocks67]

Well, this could be completely wrong but Brown was able to win by 7 in a D+8.6 year, correct? So he underperformed the national baseline by ~2%.

So if this was a D+2 year, Ryan could... theoretically have a chance? Could be looking at that wrongly though.

[wbrocks67]

What an embarrassing reach.

This. That pic of Vance looks like every other pic I've ever seen of him used.

[wbrocks67]

I don't understand this calculation that Ryan made to go against student debt relief. It's overall popular, and I would imagine Ohio, a lean R state, still has a ton of independents and even Republicans are still okay with it. Him back tracking on this is not a good look. It's not like this is some winning issue for Rs, so him going against it makes no sense to me

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1563906615530635264

[wbrocks67]

Considering that Ryan has come out against the student loan action, I won't feel as bad when he loses.

Yeah, it’s disappointing how many Democrats are parroting Republican talking points on this issue.

Sadly they have on other issues as well (like guns).

Like I get on some issues he needs to moderate towards the center, b/c it's still a Trump+8 state. But student debt relief is way more popular with Indies and even Rs than standard typical ideological policies, so his whole schtick here doesn't make sense to me.

He could've even did a thing where he still talked about his issues with it but added that it's still a great relief to many Ohio voters. There was a middle ground for him to take here and he just blew it imo.

[wbrocks67]

As of right now, Thiel is not planning on spending any money for Vance in OH-SEN.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/31/peter-thiel-mcconnell-blake-masters/

Makes sense why McConnell was forced to dump the $28M then.

[wbrocks67]

I feel like we had this exact conversation going into August and Vance was supposed to start doing things. Now we're literally only two months away from the election, and Vance still doesn't seem to be doing anything. I truly think if not for this $28M cash infusion he may lose this race.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1565453090941272065

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1565710650378276868

[wbrocks67]

I feel like we had this exact conversation going into August and Vance was supposed to start doing things. Now we're literally only two months away from the election, and Vance still doesn't seem to be doing anything. I truly think if not for this $28M cash infusion he may lose this race.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1565453090941272065

Ryan has yet to lead one independent poll in Ohio... until then, I'm not sure why people insist on wishcasting that Vance is going to lose this race.

You act like there has been a ton of independent polling done in this race.

[wbrocks67]

Since the May primary, Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan has spent $12 million in Ohio — a significant sum that dwarfs Vance’s $300,000 (Vance and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have also run $1.7 million in coordinated ads).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/election-forecast-dems-gops-senate-00054842

So essentially pre-Labor Day, Ryan spent $12M, while Vance only spent $2M

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this is Fetterman style "you are out of touch with [this states] voters" type stuff

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1567275008887496704

[wbrocks67]

I mean, there's 7 days in a week. Trump really couldn't have done a rally any other day that week? Come on now.

[wbrocks67]

Ryan's approval in his own district doesn't matter much. The rest of the state/low information voters don't and his spending is defining him in a more positive light.

This is what I wrote basically in the Suffolk polling thread. This race may be the most consequential in terms of how Ryan was able to define himself basically the entire summer, and also define Vance, with Vance now only limping to run ads with less than 2 months out, while Ryan's favorability rating is still nearly +20.

[wbrocks67]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

To be fair, it doesn't sound like there's anything that could truly convince you.

I don't know what else people need to see to realize that this is an actual race. Ohio is a Trump +8 state, but Sherrod Brown literally won by 6.5% just 4 years ago. It's not *impossible*

[wbrocks67]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

To be fair, it doesn't sound like there's anything that could truly convince you.

I don't know what else people need to see to realize that this is an actual race. Ohio is a Trump +8 state, but Sherrod Brown literally won by 6.5% just 4 years ago. It's not *impossible*

Brown is an incumbent, won in a Democratic wave year, and still underperformed the polls against a challenger who was as weak as J.D. Vance is. And it's hard for me to see Ryan mustering the level of crossover appeal necessary to overcome a double-digit landslide by DeWine in this state. I'd also say that Biden was thought be competitive in Ohio in 2020, and even campaigned there, only for Trump to win decisively on Election Day. The polls in Ohio have underestimated Republicans consistently for several years now, and the collapse in Ryan's support from 2018 to 2020 gives me little confidence that he will be able to reverse the trends here.

But have we stopped though to think that Ryan has possibly even more crossover appeal than Brown does? I'm not saying it's true, but it's not impossible either. I also think Vance is easily a worse candidate than 2018.

Brown won by 6.5 in a D+8.5 year. He underperformed national Ds by 2%. SO yes, incumbency matters, but Vance is also horrific, so honestly if this is a D+2 or more year, I don't think it's impossible for Ryan to win.

[wbrocks67]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074

I don't think so. I'm still not convinced this is anything but a clear Republican victory.

To be fair, it doesn't sound like there's anything that could truly convince you.

I don't know what else people need to see to realize that this is an actual race. Ohio is a Trump +8 state, but Sherrod Brown literally won by 6.5% just 4 years ago. It's not *impossible*

Brown is an incumbent, won in a Democratic wave year, and still underperformed the polls against a challenger who was as weak as J.D. Vance is. And it's hard for me to see Ryan mustering the level of crossover appeal necessary to overcome a double-digit landslide by DeWine in this state. I'd also say that Biden was thought be competitive in Ohio in 2020, and even campaigned there, only for Trump to win decisively on Election Day. The polls in Ohio have underestimated Republicans consistently for several years now, and the collapse in Ryan's support from 2018 to 2020 gives me little confidence that he will be able to reverse the trends here.

As bad as Renacci was, he was no where near the same ballpark of how bad a candidate Vance has proven to be

Wasn't Renacci essentially generic R?

[wbrocks67]

Gosh, a couple of polls between different candidates for different offices in different years have the same numbers!  What a shocking correlation!

Same margins in exactly the same timeframe for a cycle.. yes, it is a interesting correlation, especially as there seems to be those who suggest Ryan is favoured.

I mean, Civiqs is also terribly underestimated Biden now for a while, so they're not some D-leaning outlet.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1574358067499737089

[wbrocks67]

We knew candidates get better rates than PACs, but damn, when put like this, it's pretty stunning. Because of Vance's horrific fundraising, he's only really able to get ~20% more airtime with his ads, despite his campaign + PACs spending $30M+ compared to Ryan's $13.6M. So even with this huge influx of cash from McConnell, he's really only just getting slightly above parity with Ryan.

From September through the Nov. 8 election, Ryan and his allies have reserved $13.6 million in TV ads throughout the state. Ryan’s campaign funded the vast majority – about 83% – with the rest coming from outside groups, including Save America Fund, a pro-Ryan group.

Meanwhile, Vance and his allies have spent about $30.6 million on ads. Ninety-two percent of that is coming from outside groups, nearly all of which is from Senate Leadership Fund PAC, which has close ties to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. About $2.4 million is coming directly from Vance’s campaign.

Even though Vance and his allies are spending almost three times as much as Ryan, they’re only getting about 20% more airtime. That’s largely because candidates, under federal law, get much better prices compared to outside PACs.

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2022/09/whos-funding-tim-ryan-and-jd-vance-in-ohios-us-senate-race.html

[wbrocks67]

Curious for those Ohio'ans - has Ryan put an emphasis on abortion?

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1574876954364297216

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1577018237354639370

[wbrocks67]

??

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1577049773819191296

[wbrocks67]

the announcement in question... lmao

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1577289794245345317