2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Huh. I hadn't actually looked at GCB polls recently and was under the impression from the rest of the forum that Democrats were consistently leading. (edit: Maybe that was the case, but I saw that tweet that showed Republicans up small or big in four polls and was shocked.)

Dems have been leading in probably 75-80% of the GCB polls, if not more. The only recent ones that have had an R lead sans Traf/Rass have been the new ABC/Wapo, CBS/YouGov (they've had one all summer) and Data for Progress (they've had one in the summer too). McLaughlin too, but it's McLaughlin

[wbrocks67]

July: R 230 - D 205 (R+25)
August: R 226 - D 209 (R+17)
September R 223 - D 212 (R+11)

GCB is R+1 here, was R+2 in August, and R+4 in July.

The sample is also like 43% identifying as conservative while Dems win moderates by 26 and independents. I am kind of glad fewer pollsters are herding but there is so much uncertainty this year. 72% are 45 and over as well...that number is absurd even for a midterm. Split should be closer to 65-35.

Yeah, a lot of wonky results all over the place. Many pollsters seem to be expecting that Rs are still going to have a turnout edge in November. That is still where the CBS/YouGov and ABC/Wapo are (the former has been edging towards Ds though).

ABC/Wapo, like I said though, is quite the outlier, at least in its LV model. But it also has Trump winning a 2024 rematch, which says to me it's likely a bit too GOP leaning.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, what are the turnout rates for 18-29 year olds? 47% may be meh compared to other age groups, but that still feels massively large for that age group comparatively with usual youth turnout?

[wbrocks67]

The ABC/Wapo LV model is weird. It wasn't in any of the crosstabs and Wapo didn't even report it, ABC did. And the way they worded it was odd - it was something like "in one of the likely voter models", as if there was multiple

[wbrocks67]

TIPP (A+ on 538) has D+2 on GCB, 48-46

Was 46-46 in August

https://tippinsights.com/trump-suffers-zero-electoral-fallout-from-fbis-mar-a-lago-raid-i-i-tipp-poll/

[wbrocks67]

“ For one, 59% of women and 49% of men say they would prefer Republicans to control Congress”

That can’t be right.

Checked, it's not - the crosstabs are:

18-24: D+27 (62-35)
25-44: D+10 (51-41)
45-64: R+9 (51-42)
65+: D+2 (49-47)
Males: D+2 (49-47)
Females: D+2 (47-45)
Whites: R+13 (53-40)
Nonwhites: D+49 (72-23)
Indies: R+1 (41-40)

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult midterm tracker updated for the week. 48-44 for the last 3 days, same as last week

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult/POLITICO at D+2 this week, 45-43. Was 46-41 last week. A bit drop, but they have also have a drop in Biden's approval from 46% to 41% so could be a sampling thing.

[wbrocks67]

Weird, we get a Grinnell that has Dems doing *better* among LV, with D+4, then we have the Morning Consult midterm tracker which is unchanged since last week (and the week before) and then we have both Morning Consult/POLITICO and YouGov/Economist - who were steady for weeks and weeks pretty much - suddenly making decent sized jumps since last week. I assume it's just random sampling variances, but weird.

[wbrocks67]

Very weird - YouGov/Economist has Biden's approval actually better than last week, yet Ds drop 5% in the GCB.

His RV approval is 45/51 and his LV approval is 47/52! Yet Rs lead on GCB, R+1.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/r8e9fgqwcm/econTabReport.pdf

Weird dynamic that we've seen in a few polls now where Biden's approval is actually increasing among the likeliest to vote, but then the GOP in that race conversely does better in that same sample (compared to RV)

[wbrocks67]

Culprit in drop week to week in YouGov/Economist GCB seems to be Women. They had D+13 last week , only D+6 this week.

[wbrocks67]

Ipsos has D+5, up from D+1 last week. Useless, though, at 37-32 lol

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1575173086474899463

[wbrocks67]

Cohn usually is fine, but I think we can all admit basing an analysis off of the google searches of abortion is just getting ridiculous.

[wbrocks67]

Pew poll of Latinos in August has Ds at +25 on the GCB, 53-28. 18% are undecided/other though.

https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2022/09/29/most-latinos-say-democrats-care-about-them-and-work-hard-for-their-vote-far-fewer-say-so-of-gop/

[wbrocks67]

Well we have a worse poll than the Reuters/Ipsos, here is 538/Ipsos, with a D+3 on GCB, but.... 32-29 lol

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/FiveThirtyEight-2022-midterm-election

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Yahoo GCB

Adults: D+5 (38-33)
RV: D+4 (45-41) … was D+5 (45-40) three weeks ago
“Definitely voting this fall”: D+3 (47-44)
“Probably/maybe voting”: D+8 (44-36)
“Those voted in all 3 national elections between 2016 and 2020”: D+3 (47-44)
“Those paying a lot of attention to the campaign”: D+1 (48-47)

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-midterm-momentum-shifts-back-to-gop-as-inflation-fears-grow-151344613.html

[wbrocks67]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

[wbrocks67]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

I know I'm probably being unreasonable but certain things are instigating that internal sense of dread I always have but had been quieted somewhat during the late summer. I hope you end up right about everything this year. I really do.

I mean, I get frustrated and doom too. But I'd rather be cautiously optimistic about some things than be pessimistic.

I think of the NY-19 election where close to nobody on this forum thought Pat Ryan would win. He was down in fundraising, down in the polls, everyone thought "oh Molinaro by 5" and then he came and won by nearly 3%. Not every election is like that, but we've seen concrete evidence this year is different, so the closer we get to the election, I'm supposed to believe that those Dem voters are just... going the opposite way in terms of motivation?

Hell, the fact that we're even talking about Dems and Reps being at the *SAME* intention/motivation to vote in most polls in a Biden midterm is crazy.

[wbrocks67]

Looking at those toss-ups, I think Dems are in pretty good shape in a lot of them - I think either way the house majority for either party will be slim.

[wbrocks67]

GCB update-

Rasmussen - R+1 (45-44) - was R+2 last week

Susquehanna - R+1 (44-43) - In comparison, Republicans held an average 4-point lead over
Democrats (41-37) on the generic ballot based on a cumulative average of our last 5 nationwide polls.

[wbrocks67]

Dems only seem to have a Wisconsin problem this week. Barnes and Evers need to hit back hard on Dobbs to try to increase their white college percentage.

That said...this is a good article today in the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/upshot/midterms-gerrymandering-republicans.html

Remember Wisconsin at Biden +0.6 is much less than the median Biden +2.1 seat and Dems are the ones with the candidate problem in WI.

I would disagree with this. Evers has led more polls than Michels this cycle, and Michels is the one with the more out of touch positions. Not sure how Dems have a "candidate problem" there.

[wbrocks67]

NBC/Telemundo did an oversample of Latino voters and found D+21 on the GCB, 54-33. 13% undecided.

Similar to the other recent oversample of Latinos that found +25, 53-28

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/gop-cuts-democrats-lead-latino-voters-new-poll-shows-rcna50189

[wbrocks67]

NBC/Telemundo did an oversample of Latino voters and found D+21 on the GCB, 54-33. 13% undecided.

Similar to the other recent oversample of Latinos that found +25, 53-28

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/gop-cuts-democrats-lead-latino-voters-new-poll-shows-rcna50189

What was it at this point in 2020?

54-28. So a small shift to the GOP, which would align with the D+1 GCB right now (compared to D+3/4 in 2020)

[wbrocks67]

FL-27 is interesting...

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1576927066724835329

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth has R+3....Dems are showing some real troubling signs in the past week.

R+2 among RV, 47-45. Really wanted to swing the other way from their D+7 last time lol.

Funny though, Monmouth lines up with Wapo. Wapo had 39/55 approval and R+1/5 and Monmouth has 38/55 approval R+2/3. However, both those are a decent bit off from the current avg (-9 approval)