2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Nate Cohn confirmed in a new NYT write up today that NYT/Siena is in the field right now.

He's also launching a new polls/election email newsletter where they'll do something similar to 2020 where they let us know what polls are coming soon. Sounds like they're definitely gonna do a bunch of state polling like that year which is nice.

He better just not provide us with more 43-40 sh*t lol.

[wbrocks67]

Trafalgar naturally has R+6, 48-42 on the GCB. Bumps Dems back down to D+1.2 on 538 average.

[wbrocks67]

Harvard-Harris GCB is at D+2, 51/49.  Their last poll in July was 50-50.  They never have undecideds; they must exclude them from their calculations.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/HHP_Sept2022_KeyFindings.pdf

Sep. 7-8, 1854 RV.

This poll has support for Dobbs way higher than anything else, D+2 generic ballot is honestly a very solid result for them if you look at the entire sample including Trump favorability.

Oh yeah, I mean this entire poll is essential a GOP push poll. All of the framing is pro-GOP and anti-Dems.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult midterm tracker updated.

Latest update has GCB at D+4, 48-44. It was 47-45 last week.

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

[wbrocks67]

PA-05 is a Biden +32 district.... Are they serious.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2022/09/12/schumer-plows-15-million-into-battle-for-senate-00056265

Schumer sending $15M of his own campaign funds to a bunch of races. $1M each to AZ, FL, GA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, WI and $500K to CO and WA.

That is an indicator that Democrats are less concerned about Colorado and Washington then they are about the other states - as they should be. O'Dea and Smiley have no chance of winning at this point, but Bennet and Murray are seeking to consolidate their positions.

Also interesting that they appear to have faith that FL and OH are possibilities too.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult/Politico GCB at D+5, 47-42. Same as their last poll.

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/09/13132410/2209050_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_09-14-22_SH.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Reuters/Ipsos up to D+4, though still lots of undecideds, 37-33.

Their last poll was D+2

[wbrocks67]

Fox News has GCB at D+3, 44-41.  It was 41-41 in their last poll.

"Certain to vote" is tied, 45-45.

Also of note, the undecideds/others are also lukewarm on both Democrats and Republicans

Fifteen percent of voters are undecided or backing a third-party candidate. This group has unfavorable views of both the Democratic Party (67%) and the GOP (64%).

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-inflation-abortion-motivating-voter-turnout

[wbrocks67]

GOP really trying to make Yesli Vega happen when it's just not happening.

[wbrocks67]

It would truly be hilarious if Malinowski was able to win again and titanium R candidate Keane lost twice in a row.

[wbrocks67]

NYT/Siena GCB at D+2, 46-44

Their last poll in July was D+1, 44-43 I believe

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/us/politics/biden-democrats-abortion-trump-poll.html

[wbrocks67]

Data for Progress has R+2 on their latest GCB. Their last was R+1.

Kinda confirms their continuing more GOP-leaning streak so far this cycle.

[wbrocks67]

Almost every single pollster has continued to show some type of movement towards Dems and of course then we have the likes of Trafalgar who naturally have the momentum with Rs in every race.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1571518227779579905

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1571518227779579905

This is honestly one of the strangest developments of the cycle for me. It’s not like O’Halleran was pulling amazing numbers in past races, so I don’t understand what the NRCC is seeing in their internals.

It's almost as if Kari Lake is not winning by 4-5 in the governors race!

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1571518227779579905

This is honestly one of the strangest developments of the cycle for me. It’s not like O’Halleran was pulling amazing numbers in past races, so I don’t understand what the NRCC is seeing in their internals.

It's almost as if Kari Lake is not winning by 4-5 in the governors race!

You’re obsessed, lol. I can say with complete confidence that O’Halleran will easily out run Hobbs here and that, if for whatever reason, Crane is doing poorly it has little to do with the governor race.

What I'm saying is that it's quite possible that polls showing Dems doing rather well in AZ (Kelly up 4-6, Hobbs up 1-3) are probably more likely to be right then if even seats like AZ-02 are competitive.

There is no scenario where Lake is winning by 5 and Kelly is winning by 1 where AZ-02 is somewhat competitive.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1571518227779579905

This is honestly one of the strangest developments of the cycle for me. It’s not like O’Halleran was pulling amazing numbers in past races, so I don’t understand what the NRCC is seeing in their internals.

It's almost as if Kari Lake is not winning by 4-5 in the governors race!

You’re obsessed, lol. I can say with complete confidence that O’Halleran will easily out run Hobbs here and that, if for whatever reason, Crane is doing poorly it has little to do with the governor race.

What I'm saying is that it's quite possible that polls showing Dems doing rather well in AZ (Kelly up 4-6, Hobbs up 1-3) are probably more likely to be right then if even seats like AZ-02 are competitive.

There is no scenario where Lake is winning by 5 and Kelly is winning by 1 where AZ-02 is somewhat competitive.

Well, I think that is my point. AZ-02 will not be competitive and I do not understand what the NRCC is doing. Let them burn the money. AZ-01 and 06 will ultimately be closer races.

Obviously they're seeing something if they're dumping nearly $2M in then. The committees likely know more than us since they have more data than we see.

[wbrocks67]

Should be noted that Democrats were also down by like 14-15% in the NBC poll on the economy in 2018 and Dems went on to win by 8.5%.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats are running even in a poll that shows them down 20 points on the economy and your conclusion is they've overplayed their hand on abortion

Many Voters will be ticked off E-Day Voters especially if they hear 24/7 Abortion, Abortion, Abortion.

This screams more "i personally dont want more voters to hear about abortion because it makes things worse for the GOP"

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the GOP always has the edge on the economy, I think because there's also just this societal ~feeling~ that "the republicans are the party of the economy" or when people think of "fiscally conservative" they attribute to Republicans (obviously not the current GOP party though), but it's stuck.

There was a tweet I'll have to find but basically said that in essentially every election year in the 2010's, or at least the latter half of the decade at least, the GOP always has the advantage on the economy, usually at over 10% over Dems. They even had it though in 2018, so a lot of times it's just baked in at this point.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult's midterm tracker updated again. It covers the entire last week by a 3-day rolling average. Most of the days were D48-45, while the latest update on 9/18 was 48-44, so pretty much unchanged since last week.

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

[wbrocks67]

OnMessage for Senate Leadership Fund (R)
GCB R+3, 46-43

https://senopportunity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/2022-09-32-PUBLIC-DECK-National-SOF.pdf

Their last poll was R+2, 46-44

If you have time, it's fun to go through the questions. This is the most push-polliest poll you'll ever see.

[wbrocks67]

Echelon Insights GCB

RV: D+7 (49-42)
LV: D+5 (49-44)

https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/september-omnibus-update-2022/

[wbrocks67]

Echelon Insights GCB

RV: D+7 (49-42)
LV: D+5 (49-44)

https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/september-omnibus-update-2022/

It was what last month? 4-8?

Yep last month it was D+8 among RV and D+4 among LV.