2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult/POLITICO has GCB at D+5, 47-42. Up 1 from last week (46-42)

I believe D+5 is the highest it's been in quite some time.

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/23145441/2208119_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_08-24-22_SH.pdf

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist has GCB at D+5 this week, 44-39. Relatively unchanged, was 45-39 last week.

YouGov/Yahoo finds GCB at D+6 this week, 45-39
https://www.scribd.com/document/588832466/20220822-Yahoo-Tabs-Biden-Economy

[wbrocks67]

Echelon (R) has RV at D+8, 50-42, and LV at D+4, 48-44

https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/august-omnibus-update-2022/

NewsNation has R+3, 45-42

https://www.newsnationnow.com/polls/poll-voters-on-trump-fbi-search-student-debt-forgiveness/



For every D+4-6 we get, there's a R+3-5, so I imagine that's truly indicative that we're at a = environment

[wbrocks67]

Calvert's seat is confusing... Rs only outvoted Ds 53-46 in the primary.

[wbrocks67]

Cygnal (R) is out with a minor D lead in GCB

D 47.2%
R 46.5%

Their last poll was R+1 in mid-July

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1562852819325317121/photo/1

[wbrocks67]

Emerson GCB, R+1, 45-44

same as July

[wbrocks67]

McLaughlin even has the GCB race tied, 45-45.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1563269735512387585?s=21&t=C-ope1YoDdc0l7obe6NwEA

[wbrocks67]

CBS/YouGov's battleground tracker is updated. With a new poll, their outlook has gone from Rs leading 230-205 seats to 226-209

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1563896693359247361

[wbrocks67]

New CBS/YouGov poll of LVs has R+2 in GCB, 47-45.

Was R+2 in July, 45-43.

Interesting though that in July their poll indicated an R+4 LV turnout model. Now it indicates an R+2 turnout model, which aligns with what we've been seeing with Dems closing the enthusiasm gap.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I1kCPBeysGALnPoddxMP_Ch6Ki9WApf0/view

[wbrocks67]

CBS/YouGov's battleground tracker is updated. With a new poll, their outlook has gone from Rs leading 230-205 seats to 226-209

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1563896693359247361

The poll also has a ton of conservatives, few moderates, Dems winning independents but a GOP gain. The red flags for GOP are beginning to show, we should take the idea of Dems retaining the majority seriously.

I also don't love them having "Independent Candidate" AND "someone else" as options here. Most of these people saying either of those are going to end up picking R or D.

[wbrocks67]

Perhaps they’re being overconfident, November will tell us that for sure. But complacent to me suggests not doing much campaigning and/or sitting on competitive races, which definitely does not describe them. While they were overconfident in 2020, I’d say that 2016 is the only year that they were truly complacent, in that they took competitive races for granted.

Honestly, at least until recently, Republicans are the ones who seemed complacent and overconfident that historical precedent would guarantee a red wave regardless of how far they went. 2022 still might be a red wave, but that’s far less of a given than some Republicans seem to think, and the special election results should make them at least a little nervous, as well as the lack of campaigning by some Republicans. If Democrats were gaining in the spring rather than the late summer, it’d be easier to dismiss.

I mean tbh, objectively, you're correct - if there are people who have been complacent or overconfident, it's the GOP. Not only were people like McCarthy publicly saying numerous times there would be a giant red wave, it's clear even among the candidates that they've been slow to campaigning and fundraising (Vance, Oz, etc.) and some not even really bothering to campaign at all (Rubio, Abbott, etc.)

[wbrocks67]

Democrats have peaked last week. NBC came out last weekend with R+2, now it's CBS/YouGov and they have it too at R+2.

Republicans will come home very late just like they did in 2016.

CBS/YouGov is pretty much the only poll in the last week that hasn't erred to the left since their last iteration. And it's not like it moved to the right, it just stayed the same, which is also just dependent on LV modeling.

[wbrocks67]

Should also be noted that CBS/YouGov estimating 226-209 based on an R+2 result.

Which means a 50/50 D+0 result on the GCB could result in a tied house or 1 or 2 in either direction.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/29/kevin-mccarthy-pac-ads

CLF dropping $37M, mostly on offense.

Now this seems a bit cocky to me, that instead of trying to just shore up who they need to, they're still focusing on Biden double digit districts, especially ones like Flores'.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1564246020304805891

[wbrocks67]

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/29/kevin-mccarthy-pac-ads

CLF dropping $37M, mostly on offense.

Now this seems a bit cocky to me, that instead of trying to just shore up who they need to, they're still focusing on Biden double digit districts, especially ones like Flores'.

I mean the CLF is basically the Incumbent Protection Service

Right, but spending $3M on a Biden +15 district is.... an interesting way to spend money.

[wbrocks67]

Sabato shifting AZ and PA Senate from Tossup to Lean D: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-rating-changes-arizona-pennsylvania-to-leans-democratic/

I think Arizona is pre-mature. For some reason I don’t trust the polls there.

Kelly's leads have all been pretty much outside the MoE.

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult steady at D+5 this week, 47-42

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/31061407/2208180_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_08-31-22_SH.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Wow, YouGov/Economist up to D+8 this week, 46-38.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/kqp1ntoj7v/econTabReport.pdf

Was D+5 (44-39) last week

[wbrocks67]

Quinnipiac has GCB at D+4 among adults (46-42) and RV (47-43)

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3854

Quite a jump from their last poll in late July that had R+1 in adults and D+1/tied in RV

[wbrocks67]

Imagine still taking Q pac seriously
And I would say that if they had R+10 too, they have weird GOP skewed polls occasionally too

Q-pac has been a mess this year, correct. But I will say that its trendline shows the same thing that almost everyone else is showing.

[wbrocks67]

Trafalgar out with R+6 (47-41). Their last poll was R+5.

[wbrocks67]

New WSJ poll from Fabrizio/Impact has GCB at D+3, 47-44.

They had R+5 last time they polled in March.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-midterm-prospects-improve-as-races-heat-up-wsj-poll-finds-11662024601

[wbrocks67]

Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

[wbrocks67]

Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

They should start more moves like PA-7, VA-2, NJ-7 to tossup.

Kean and Kiggans will probably still win, but I agree those districts are more like a tossup. It’s just hard to see Kean being a sizable favorite in a Biden+5 seat when Republicans are losing Trump+10 or Biden+1 seats.

Eh, I think Luria will still pull it out. Luria has much more $, and has a lot more visibility now due to the 1/6 panel. Kiggans seems like another hyped candidate like Vega that hasn't really borne out as much as people said they would.