2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Wow, Suffolk now at D+4 on the GCB, 44-40.

They were one of the most bullish pollsters on Rs this year.

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/7_28_2022_embargoed_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=4F682989707021DD87FA56D227603197F8E43228

[wbrocks67]

and two more GCBs added to 538:

Newsnation: D+1, 44-43
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group: D+2, 48-46

538 average down to R+0.2.

[wbrocks67]

The topline number is still good for the GOP, problem is the momentum was continuous for them in the late months of 2010-14 and it does appear Dems are showing signs of late life. GOP is a big big favorite in the House but still probably have like a 20% chance of losing everything.

Other than the Dobbs report what else caused the shift in the momentum. Also, what do you think would shift it back in the GOPs favor?

Dobbs is the main driver, but there's also Trump being unfavorably back in the news due to the J6 hearings, and possibly gas prices coming down quite consistently for the last month-plus.

Not to mention, better news for Biden in terms of "getting things done" while little things will add up, like GOP voting against constantly popular issues like same sex marriage rights, contraception, abortion rights, etc.

[wbrocks67]

Beacon Research did a poll, July 5-20 for some swing states that also included GCB

AZ GCB:
RV: R 41, D 41
LV: R 46, D 45

GA GCB:
RV: D 44, R 42
LV: R 48, D 46

NV GCB:
RV: D 43, R 40
LV: R 47, D 46

PA GCB:
RV: R 43, D 40
LV: R 47, D 42

https://www.environmentalvoter.org/sites/default/files/documents/july-2022-survey-topline-data.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, D4P is also the only pollster who found Walker up in the 7-8 recent polls (outside of Bolton's PAC but that's a whole other thing...)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SalvantoCBS/status/1553750263168733185

[wbrocks67]

Here's the CBS/YouGov battleground tracker - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-house-2022-midterm-elections-opinion-poll-2022-07-31/

They also have a new LV poll for GCB at R+2, 45-43.

The latest poll seems modeled towards an R+4 electorate, which is what they expect right now in terms of turnout in Nov.

[wbrocks67]

The Youth Vote is energized.

https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1553798953250050048

He forgot to mention the part where voting intention is increased at every level and the youth vote is lagging the most by far.

Percentage of voters that are not definitely or probably voting in midterms, by age:
- 18-29 23%
- 30-44 16%
- 45-64 10%
- 65+ 3%

Older people are significantly outvoting younger people. In fact, the difference in voting intentions favors republicans across every demographic. It’s the same thing we saw in Virginia/New Jersey and it’s why Biden’s popularity matters immensely

Well, yeah though. Older people always outvote younger demographics. That's not anything new, so it really just depends on the exact numbers. Older voters can outvote younger votes all day, but if the youth vote is say, even on par or a few % more than it has been in the past, that's a huge deal, given the margins.

Youth vote will always lag. Always. For the rest of time lol.

I do think though pollsters need to stop asking 'enthusiastic' to vote and basing models around that. Especially with young people - if I asked those who I know *will 100%* vote this fall whether they're 'enthusiastic' to do it, probably all of them will say no, that's not the right word at all. But they're still going to vote no matter what. Just a bad barometer. Just ask people how sure they are and base it off of that.

[wbrocks67]

A few more GCB polls today-

Big Village: D+4 (46-42) - same as their last poll last week

Harris Poll: tied (50-50) - same as their last poll end of June

OnMessage (R pollster): R+1 (45-44) - down from R+5 their last poll beginning of July

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

[wbrocks67]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

If the theory that a big part of the reason for Biden’s low approval is dissatisfied progressives holds water, then I’d guess the former. Which could mean one of the most underwhelming midterm performances by the opposition in years.

It doesn't hold water. It's pure hackery by people who refuse to accept that polling continues to overestimate democrats egregiously.

No, it's pure hackery to ignore the numbers.

You don't think there's a correlation between the same polls having Biden -30 approval with 18-34 year old for example, but then being up +20-30 with that same demo in the GCB for Dems? This is not that hard to understand.

People are just not use to it because people were more hardened in their views during Trump and his supporters did not operate the same way that Biden supporters are. Don't be dense.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB at D+6, 45-39

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-americans-favor-manchin-schumer-climate-deal-by-wide-margins-183249029.html

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult/Politico has GCB at D+2, 45-43

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/02220328/2207195_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_08-03-22_SH.pdf

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/YouGovAmerica/status/1554820060845379584

[wbrocks67]

i'm shook y'all

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1554844970426703874

[wbrocks67]

The RV sample is more realistic in the same poll, has D+3 at 49-46 versus the D+7 of all adults.

But the trendline is pretty clear regardless.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1554899000066711552

[wbrocks67]

538's GCB average is now dead even - 44.2% to 44.2%

Best showing for Dems since Nov 15, 2021 in their average

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the OR changes are a bit odd to me, unless they're just hedging their bets but still expecting Ds to win.

[wbrocks67]

I wouldn't be surprised if Ds just gave up on PA-01 at this point.

[wbrocks67]

I wouldn't be surprised if Ds just gave up on PA-01 at this point.

Fitzpatrick voted with the Dems on almost everything the last two months, he's safe. You wonder if he will even run in 2024.

I mean, at this point, barring the next 'blue wave', he's got this seat on lockdown as long as he wants, but I wonder how long that will continue. He also has to contend with primaries where he does pretty well, but that could quickly change as we've seen with others.

Funny enough though, Fitzpatrick winning in PA-01 boosts the chances of Fetterman/Shapiro IMO. Bucks County loves ticket-splitting, so I could see many voters being given the out here, where they can say, well I voted D at the top b/c of the crazy nominees, but I still did my 'bipartisan' duty while voting for Fitzpatrick for house.

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen will Rasmussen.... their GCB is R+3 today, 46-43.

IT has gone from R+10 to R+8 to R+5 and now R+3

[wbrocks67]

The GCB result in WA-08 for example is better for Dems than even in 2020, so that's interesting for sure.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1555700718819872773

That part I'm more suprised about is how do 16% of people still "not know" who they're going to support on the GCB. And it's not even like this "undecided" % has been going down any. That seems awfully high, and is way higher than we saw in Pres matchup polls.

I get your point but it's not 16% - it's 11.6% undecided/other right now (44.2 +44.2 decided right now, 88.4)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1555267395341717507

just another data point that disproves the whole 'democrats are the extreme' ones that Rs like to push.

[wbrocks67]

And for what it’s worth, I don’t think Mandela Barnes is a strong candidate either. He’s taken positions or done photo ops in the past (like with Ilhan Omar, or coming out for Green New Deal) to the point where I don’t think he’ll be able to take advantage of Johnson’s own weaknesses, and he himself can be portrayed as out of touch with the median voter

This talking point really has no basis in reality. Tammy Baldwin is just as liberal as Barnes is, and she won by double digits in 2018. Not just that, but Ron Johnson is much farther right than Barnes is left, so you can't really make the accusation that Barnes is 'extreme' without mentioning that Johnson is just as much the other way, if not more.