NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[wbrocks67]

https://nsjonline.com/article/2021/07/cheri-beasley-teams-with-controversial-missouri-rep-to-fundraise/

Let me point out that this century, Democrats have not won a presidential or Senate election in North Carolina, the only exception being the massive wave blue year of 2008. A year so great for them that they flipped House seats in Idaho and southeast Alabama. Though recent elections have been close, the state does appear to have a stubborn Republican tilt.

So why on earth does Beasley think it would be a good idea to fundraise with someone as toxic as f**king Cori Bush? Is she actually that dumb? This would be the equivalent of Chris Sununu fundraising with MTG.

because 98% of the general public doesnt know who Cori Bush is

[wbrocks67]

Beasley $3.6M raised in Q1

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1512086621772034049?s=20&t=ybsVgnZ-_I-1-YYQ5lIlzQ

[wbrocks67]

No Green party on senate ballot.

https://twitter.com/JBremerDevt/status/1542563923542564864

[wbrocks67]

No Green party on senate ballot.

https://twitter.com/JBremerDevt/status/1542563923542564864

Democrats celebrating less democracy. Really the "saviours of democracy" here folks.

I mean, if its the Green party's own fault for not getting enough valid signatures, then that's on them. Should they not be required to do what is needed to get on the ballot just like everyone else?

[wbrocks67]

Beasley raised $7.4M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1546854910796464128

[wbrocks67]

Beasley raised $7.4M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1546854910796464128

Budd only raised $1.7M

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1548046172979228674

[wbrocks67]

Any news here?

Dems prolly won’t win it but the margin could have implications on how contested NC will be in 2024

It's been one of the quietest races of the cycle so far. Considering how the more prominent races are going for the GOP, that's a good thing for the Republicans.

Tedd Budd and Cheri Beasley are both relatively "boring" candidates who are running pretty normal campaigns.

Except Beasley is the one actually out there, getting coverage, raising money. Is Budd even campaigning? He seems as silent as Vance in OH, with not much money to boot either.

[wbrocks67]

https://indyweek.com/news/northcarolina/with-go-everywhere-strategy-beasley-breaks-with-dem-playbook-for-statewide-races/

Beasley doesn't seem bad at all to be honest. But I suppose the current gop environment is going to screw her in such a polarized environment.

I mean, I would argue that the *current* environment doesn't even favor Rs right now tbh.

[wbrocks67]

POLITICO calls out North Carolina in their piece about the NRSC cancelling ad buys:

The cuts — totaling roughly $13.5 million since Aug. 1 — come as the Republicans’ Senate campaign committee is being forced to “stretch every dollar we can,” said a person familiar with the NRSC’s deliberations. Republican nominees in critical states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina — places the GOP must defend this fall — have failed to raise enough money to get on air themselves, requiring the NRSC to make cuts elsewhere to accommodate.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/15/gop-slashes-ads-in-key-senate-battlegrounds-00051969

[wbrocks67]

National Rs really dumping a lot of money into this race for it only to be tied right now.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1560326662306283520

[wbrocks67]

oop!

https://twitter.com/kafrauenfelder/status/1562075583256924160

[wbrocks67]

And in North Carolina, Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley has spent $6.3 million on ads, while GOP Rep. Ted Budd has relied almost exclusively on the NRSC to respond.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/election-forecast-dems-gops-senate-00054842

This is what makes me think Beasley has a shot here. She essentially pulled a Tim Ryan and spent millions during the summer to define herself/Budd while Budd is broke himself and has only spent a minute money on ads - thanks to NRSC up to this point

[wbrocks67]

Numerous polls now showing Beasely's favs are outrunning Budd considerably

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1568358940332679168

[wbrocks67]

Oh

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1570083509405990912

[wbrocks67]

Polling in august had North Carolina approving of a 20 week ban by a very narrow margin, and being split something like 30/20/40/10 between always legal, legal with restrictions, always illegal, and undecided. I don’t think this move the needle in NC.

The # of weeks is not really the point of the issue with any of this.

[wbrocks67]

Polling in august had North Carolina approving of a 20 week ban by a very narrow margin, and being split something like 30/20/40/10 between always legal, legal with restrictions, always illegal, and undecided. I don’t think this move the needle in NC.

The # of weeks is not really the point of the issue with any of this.

When it’s the difference between the idea being popular and unpopular in the state, it absolutely is the point? Anybody who fear mongers about this is already turning out for Beasley after Dobbs and any swing voter who is that offended by the idea of a 15 week ban is already voting Dem this cycle, so I’m not sure how this hurts him.

I’m guessing your point is that voluntarily nationalizing the issue right now is a bad idea because it will juice turnout even more in places like CA, which is true (particularly when it won’t even pass right now), but it’s not relevant to NC.

LMAO it IS relevant to NC! To say it is not is being incredibly disingenuous. The bottom line is that any Republican willing to be associated with any type of "abortion ban" right now is just stupid. Beasley can easily say, here he is for this abortion ban, and who knows what else he would vote for - again, the bottom line is that this is not a decision that Budd should even be making for people and Beasley/any Dem can easily make that point.

[wbrocks67]

Should also be noted that Tilis won in 2020 with only 48.7% of the vote, so that also slightly gives Beasley an opening.

[wbrocks67]

Axios partner Engagious/Schlesinger recently gathered 11 swing voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Eight of 11 saw a picture of Beasley and said they could name her, while only 4 of 11 said they could name Budd.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1571968288539942914

[wbrocks67]

Axios partner Engagious/Schlesinger recently gathered 11 swing voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Eight of 11 saw a picture of Beasley and said they could name her, while only 4 of 11 said they could name Budd.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1571968288539942914

I don't live in NC but was Beasley particularly well liked as a State Supreme Justice? Just because they are more likely able to identify her doesn't necessarily mean they like her especially in a case like this.

I thought it was interesting because it means Budd has done a worse job at introducing himself to voters and that's not surprising since Beasley has owned him in the ad wars (aside from outside spending)

This was also interesting: 8 of the 11 said they were very likely to vote in the midterms.
0 said they'd vote for Budd.

Didn't say how many would vote for Beasley.

The panel was also 8 independents, 2 Dems, and 1 Rep. The fact that out of 9 Indies/GOP not even 1 said they'd vote for Budd is kinda stunning.

[wbrocks67]

Axios partner Engagious/Schlesinger recently gathered 11 swing voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Eight of 11 saw a picture of Beasley and said they could name her, while only 4 of 11 said they could name Budd.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1571968288539942914

I don't live in NC but was Beasley particularly well liked as a State Supreme Justice? Just because they are more likely able to identify her doesn't necessarily mean they like her especially in a case like this.

I thought it was interesting because it means Budd has done a worse job at introducing himself to voters and that's not surprising since Beasley has owned him in the ad wars (aside from outside spending)

This was also interesting: 8 of the 11 said they were very likely to vote in the midterms.
0 said they'd vote for Budd.

Didn't say how many would vote for Beasley.

The panel was also 8 independents, 2 Dems, and 1 Rep. The fact that out of 9 Indies/GOP not even 1 said they'd vote for Budd is kinda stunning.

Is there any empirical evidence whether focus groups have any predictive power? This one does confirm the obvious that Budd getting outspent massively isn’t helping him, but a sample size of 11 is not useful. Are focus groups just an artifact of a less statistically aware time? Especially because they’re something where social desirability bias could play a huge role.

Yeah, I'm usually of the thinking that focus group findings aren't really a huge indicator, especially with only 11. I do think they can be good to confirm certain priors though. At least here this seems to confirm that Budd is still pretty unknown and that what voters know of him, they're pretty meh about. Lines up with some of the polling that we've seen Beasley's favorables much better than his.

[wbrocks67]

Axios partner Engagious/Schlesinger recently gathered 11 swing voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Eight of 11 saw a picture of Beasley and said they could name her, while only 4 of 11 said they could name Budd.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1571968288539942914

Wow, 11 people! So many! Totally a large enough sample size.

If it's more like 30 or 40 people, then I'll care. Besides, not all name recognition is good name recognition.

True, but given that 0 of them would vote for Budd, I imagine the name recog isn't bad for Beasley here.

[wbrocks67]

Senate Leadership Fund is dropping another $3.52M on this race. It was the top amount of money going to the 5-6 senate races.

I truly believe this one is close. GOP should not have to spending all this money here.

[wbrocks67]

Senate Leadership Fund is dropping another $3.52M on this race. It was the top amount of money going to the 5-6 senate races.

I truly believe this one is close. GOP should not have to spending all this money here.

It could also be because this seat even if leans R right now would be seat number 52 for Dems and if Dems get to 52 seats Dems would likely be able to get a signfiicantly larger chunk of their agenda done, much of with the GOP would be very unhappy with.

This. The GOP views this as the worst-case scenario fallback option. It makes sense to spend in NC even if the result is largely a foregone conclusion.

I feel like it could absolutely be a combo of both, sure. I just think the amount is so big (and could be going elsewhere) that it could be a fallback, but also seems to indicate that Budd is a terrible fundraiser and also needs the help.

[wbrocks67]

Continues the trend of Budd having rather unimpressive favorables (-8 here), which again, is unlike the Emerson poll that found him +10.

[wbrocks67]

McConnell drops *ANOTHER* $4 million in this race for Budd

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1574851925878505473