PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Oz hasn't posted *anything* to social though since Tuesday, so it's fair to say he's probably still stewing. You love to see it.

... two weeks later and Oz still silent lmao

[wbrocks67]

Probably too busy deciding which residence to return to. Or looking for Wegners.

I'm not even joking when I say I legit think Oz will sell that house in Montco any minute now.

[wbrocks67]

Probably too busy deciding which residence to return to. Or looking for Wegners.

I'm not even joking when I say I legit think Oz will sell that house in Montco any minute now.

Wasn't he using his in-laws' house?

He was, when he first "registered" in PA in 2020, he registered at his in-laws in Montco, saying he lived there. Then he officially "moved" to their new house in the same town as the in-laws in 2021. But essentially it's been pretty dubious since the start.

[wbrocks67]

Probably too busy deciding which residence to return to. Or looking for Wegners.

You mean Wegmans.

It was actually Redner's

[wbrocks67]

One of the biggest flops of Oz's campaign may just be his suburban performance, rather than his rural performance. He spent *so much* time in SEPA to try and do better than Trump in the suburbs to attempt the "moderate" schtick, and failed epically. He did *worse* than Trump in 3/4 of the Philly suburb counties, and in Chester, only 0.2% better than Trump.

I honestly figured he may do a bit better than Trump, but still lose badly. But the fact that he essentially had no better performance than Trump, and actually did *worse* in the suburbs is pretty stunning, since Trump had the bar down at the floor.

Not for nothing either, Biden's performance in Chester was a high water mark. Shapiro actually only got +11 in 2020 in his AG race, Ahmad 5, and Torsella 8. So Fetterman still getting +17 is still fantastic, despite only tying Biden's performance.

Fetterman's Bucks performance may be the most stunning out of all of them. Bucks is the most swingy of all of them, and has gone R in recent times. Fetterman getting nearly +7.5 there is crazy.

Bucks: Biden +4.4 > Fetterman +7.4

Chester: Biden +17.1 > Fetterman +16.9

Montgomery: Biden +26.3 > Fetterman +28.4

Delaware: Biden +26.8 > Fetterman +28.0

[wbrocks67]

Montco may have had the highest turnout in the state - would have to check some of the other rurals, but given Oz's performance, I doubt it.

Montco was 69%

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1598669316618158080

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1587979072516378626
If this holds true, I was right about Fetterman massively underperforming in the Philly suburbs among "country club" republicans Romney Biden voters types.

Forgot about this. Convinced Susquehanna may also just make up #s like Trafalgar and IA.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure if anyone has noticed, but right wing media has not relented and is still obsessed with Fetterman (trying to make him seem "out of it" at his swearing in), and Fox is still doing segments on Gisele. They just can't let it go.

[wbrocks67]

Why PA may be an issue for the GOP going forward, visualized:

https://twitter.com/maxtmcc/status/1611786170119213059

[wbrocks67]

"Fetterman wants to legalize all drugs and release 1/3 of all prisoners" sounds way too ridiculous to be believable, is anyone but hardcore Republicans going to buy it?

No, Oz's unfamiliarity with politics shows when he goes on the attack and says things like this.

This was salient too. Oz's whole "Fetterman will release 1/3 of all prisoners" (and insinuating they're all violent as well) was also just so embarrassingly ridiculous. No sane person believed that.

[wbrocks67]

Happy Mehmet Monday!

https://twitter.com/SenFettermanPA/status/1620059779430514697

[wbrocks67]

Montco officially had the best turnout in 2022

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1621288070371737601

[wbrocks67]

Montco officially had the best turnout in 2022

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1621288070371737601

Oof, why is Philly so low? Imagine them having 10-15% more turnout. Fetterman could have won by more.

A lot has been made about Philly turnout in 2022 but 47% is actually pretty good all things considered. It usually lags behind nearly every other county in the state turnout wise, especially in a Dem midterm year. I believe it was only in the 30's in 2014. In 2018, it was 52.5%.

But yeah, speaks to how strong Fetterman and Shapiro's performances were that they did so well even with Philly turnout lagging compared to other counties.

[wbrocks67]

I stopped reading when that person said Fetterman was over 55 and overweight and 418 pounds when he's clearly younger than that and weighs much less than that now. It's now been quite a while that he's been much lighter than he was.

[wbrocks67]

Also, on the same tip, if anyone thought the GOP would stop the ableist attacks once Fetterman got elected...

https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1620797147162763265

[wbrocks67]

Not that unreasonable to believe Fetterman won’t make it past one term given (a) some of his health issues, (b) the likelihood of 2028 either marking the election of a new Republican president after eight years of Biden/Harris or the reelection of a Republican president (PA will be a must-win for the GOP by then), (c) the unusually favorable circumstances from which he benefited in 2022 and which won’t be replicated in 2028 (cartoonishly catastrophic/psychopathic opponent, strongest D midterm overperformance in nearly 100 years, localized nature of the race in a non-presidential year, GOP implosion in the gubernatorial race, Roe v. Wade decision, etc.). I can’t think of another post-2012 Senate/high-profile statewide race where the D candidate got as many breaks as Fetterman in 2022.

Obviously there’s no point in predicting anything this far out, but I would expect him and Cortez Masto to struggle quite a bit even in a neutral environment.

Or maybe - just maybe - Fetterman was actually a great candidate and in 2028, he'll be fine because of additional incumbency. This kind of just reads like fanfic a little!

Also not sure why it's also being treated as if the same conditions in terms of the GOP shooting itself in the foot are so unlikely, given they've done a lot of that lately in PA specifically.

Also - not sure what "health issues" would prevent him from running. People recover from strokes all the time - as he's doing seemingly completely fine - and go on with their lives.

[wbrocks67]

On that note, McCormick is just making it even easier for his opponents already:

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1621873839566110720

[wbrocks67]

Any particular reason we’re rehashing Fetterman’s stroke months after the election? Did something else happen or is this just nostalgia?

No reason except that conservatives / conservative media are still obsessed with it and how he's still a "walking corpse." They still can't get over the fact that they lost and he was actually a strong candidate.

[wbrocks67]

Voter file data is starting to come in for PA. Looks like it was a D+2 electorate.

Given D's registration advantage though, that still comes out to 71% GOP turnout and 65% Dem turnout. And GOP still flatlined horrifically despite a 6% turnout lead.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1622642542180171788