PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

It's funny how many people think Vigilante Shrek has this is in the bag. LOL.

If "Vigilante Shrek" is Fetterman, I'm not one of them. Pennsylvania being 3 points to the right of the nation + a slightly R-leaning national environment = Parnell winning by up to 5 points.

omg how many times are you gonna say this

[wbrocks67]

I'm very interested to see where Arkoosh goes. Like I've said, I would love to support her since she's from my home county and it'd be great to have a senator from Montco.

[wbrocks67]

I've been seeing a lot of Conor's "tour around PA" stuff and I think I'm definitely all in for him at this point.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1428344079503532035

[wbrocks67]

I'm surprised Lamb did not release any fundraising totals.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the Democrats currently running right now.

Kenyatta is too far left to win a general election in Pennsylvania (though he might have been able to get away with it in a more Democratic year), Lamb won't win over base Democrats, and Fetterman should have run for Governor, quite honestly, as he just hasn't impressed me in this race.

I think the best possible candidate would have been Matt Cartwright, actually. I mean, sure we'd lose his seat, but Cartwright's likely going to lose reelection, unless a Dem Gerrymander were passed for some reason.

I honestly don't get the Cartwright statewide thing. Yeah, he works for his district, but in a race like this, someone like him and Lamb would be interchangeable to the regular average person.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO Kathy Barnette. She grifted so hard and got nothing

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1435404867800010758

[wbrocks67]

Yep, those Fox News clips are gonna be great for the suburbs!

https://twitter.com/maxasteele/status/1439973644474716163

[wbrocks67]

Why is Bartos the first person to put this ad together? Seems like something Lamb should’ve run last year.

In a weird way though this kind of helps Parnell. Scandals have a way of fading over time, and voters get annoyed if you keep bringing them up. If Bartos runs with this for the next six months then a lot of voters will care less about it in the general.

Dude seems crazy though, hopefully he just straight loses the primary somehow because tbh this board massively overrates D chances in PA during a Biden midterm.

The bad news for Parnell is that it looks like there's a treasure trove of other crazy Fox News clips from his appearances.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1445441371066667009

[wbrocks67]

How many times do I have to say that this doesn't matter electorally? Strong Lean R, Parnell wins by 3-5 points.

you're a real one-trick pony. going on ignore

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1445441371066667009

Cool candidate PAGOP!

For a state that is still a solid swing state in most ways yet which the GOP controls in the legislature, the Pennsylvania GOP really sucks at recruiting statewide candidates. That more than anything is probably why the state's elections in 2018 were blowouts for the Democrats when they probably should have been more similar to Michigan's results.

Not to mention on the GOV side, Barletta is the front runner, after he got blown out as well in 2018, and will likely face Shapiro, who is another strong candidate akin (but not completely as strong as) Bob Casey.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1447974851470319625

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, at this point I don't think Toomey would be a shoo-in to win the primary either.

[wbrocks67]

How did none of this come out during Parnell's Congressional run?

Anyway, if Parnell is the nominee, this race is likely D. People in this thread seem to think that PA is like Alabama, which I assure you is not the case. PA Rs need to stem the bleeding with voters in the Philly suburbs, and Parnell would be absolutely toxic to suburbanites.

Honestly the fact that Lamb didn't make this an issue is the biggest red flag against his supposed electability.

I believe all of this has come out because of a court fight. Parnell wanted all this info to be locked up tight in court documents, but he lost that battle so that's why it's all coming out. So I think when that race was going on, all records on this issue were sealed.

[wbrocks67]

Given Pennsylvania Democrat's (relative) strength this year given the national environment, this race is probably going to be one of the most expensive and marquee races next year.

[wbrocks67]

Given Pennsylvania Democrat's (relative) strength this year given the national environment, this race is probably going to be one of the most expensive and marquee races next year.

What was the result in that state Supreme Court race? Just looking for anything to hold onto that maybe the swing won't be uniform in 2022.

Still a tiny bit to count, but right now:

PA Supreme Court (R+1.26)
Brobson (R) 50.63%
McLaughlin (D) 49.37%

PA Judge of Superior Court (R+7.62)
Sullivan (R) 53.81%
Lane (D) 46.19%

PA Judge of Commonwealth (R+3.48)
R candidates 51.74%
D candidates 48.26%

So yeah, given the circumstances, not bad, especially with one of the Ds winning the top-2 Judge of Commonwealth race.

Turnout will be around 2.75M, which is the highest in a while for an off-off year.

The last time there was a Supreme Court race in PA was 2017, and the R won by 5%, and that was with Trump as president.

[wbrocks67]

Clearly anyone who isn't totally progressive is now labeled a "Joe Manchin" which is the exact type of purity tests that the Democratic party doesn't need right now.

[wbrocks67]

I consider you a friend and I say this with all due respect, but I genuinely have no idea what you’re even talking about.  From everything I’ve read, the Manchin-Lamb comparison makes about as much sense as insisting a cow is really a walnut.  Lamb has been nothing but a team player who has backed progressive policies and moved to the left once he got elected.  He didn’t try to screw us with BBB and while you may prefer Fetterman, Lamb would be a solid addition to the Senate Democratic Caucus in his own right (and a committed vote for abolishing the filibuster).  

Other than not participating in meaningless virtue-signaling over a pot bill that was clearly DOA no matter what he did, I can’t even think of any votes he’s cast that would give progressives a legitimate cause for complaint.  I could be missing something (in which case please fill me in), but otherwise this is pretty silly.  Like, I get that you want Kenyatta or Fetterman, but come on.

I'm diametrically opposed to anyone who's a part of the Problem Solvers Caucus, especially affter the stunt that leadership pulled. He also was one of the most conservative members in Congress in 2018, when he was representinging much redder territory. Sure, that might not be a problem right now, but come 2026 or 2028, when PA starts to get redder, what's stopping him from stepping up and becoming the next Democrats' Lieberman or Manchin?

PA is not getting redder.

[wbrocks67]

Republicans probably should and will abandon Parnell unless he can unequivocally show these allegations are untrue. They show him to be horrible and probably unelectable unless a massive wave carries him over the top. Needless baggage with plenty of good alternatives.

Eh, I mean who though? Bartos? Who feels like the Gary Black of this race? The PA GOP senate bench is horrific to say the least, Parnell included

[wbrocks67]

POLITICO:

PARNELL DOUBTS GROW — All eyes are on SEAN PARNELL when he testifies today for the second and final time in an ugly child custody battle with his estranged wife, LAURIE SNELL. Though Parnell unequivocally denied abusing his wife and children on the stand Monday, the Republican Senate candidate in Pennsylvania is starting to bleed high-level support, two sources familiar with the matter told Playbook.

The swirl surrounding Parnell has been intense: On Friday, Parnell was slated to hold a call with donors to answer questions about the status of his campaign but canceled at the last minute, according to a supporter who was slated to participate in the call. That same afternoon, DONALD TRUMP’s team announced he would hold a fundraiser for Parnell at Mar-a-Lago in January, even though the event had been planned weeks before.

After POLITICO reported that DINA POWELL MCCORMICK’s husband, DAVID McCORMICK, is considering entering the race, Trump spokesperson TAYLOR BUDOWICH then issued a statement seeming to double down in support of Parnell, claiming that the former president took “careful consideration” before making the endorsement.

We reported last month, however, that some people close to Trump think Parnell was not vetted closely enough, and that Trump was pressured by DONALD TRUMP JR. to make the nod.

Parnell’s issues are bigger than any frustrations with Trump’s endorsement. Snell has claimed that he struck her and their children. Parnell said under oath that he was never physically abusive.

One supporter said that some Parnell donors are worried about his ability to raise money after the trial. Parnell, who raised $1.1 million in the third quarter — a modest sum especially after the Trump endorsement — has not been a prolific fundraiser.

One adviser to the campaign said they believe Parnell can remain a viable candidate as long as he keeps custody of his children, which the judge in the case will decide in a matter of weeks. A loss in the custody battle would be difficult to withstand politically, the adviser added. The person said Parnell will likely remain in the race until a ruling, even if his campaign is in limbo, and expects to see a bounce for Parnell if it appears that he is vindicated.

But a supporter said that donors are getting anxious and that some are considering advising him as soon as this week to pull out of the race before the judge rules.

“Even if his wife is carried out in a straitjacket, [in] some of these text messages, he’s calling his wife a whore,” said the supporter. “This is not someone we should be sending to Washington.”

The Pennsylvania race is key to GOP hopes to retake the Senate. The seat is currently held by retiring GOP Sen. PAT TOOMEY, but it’s a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2021/11/09/a-trump-backed-senate-hopeful-takes-the-stand-495028

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/dhopkins1776/status/1458066183182241792

https://twitter.com/dhopkins1776/status/1458066186571296771

[wbrocks67]

Parnell, Barnette, Gale, Dr. Oz - The GOP senate PA bench is literally a clown car.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats thinking populist rural voters will vote for Fetterman just because he looks like a big tough guy is just as stupid as Republicans thinking they'll get 25% of the black vote if they nominate Candace Owens for president

Well, Youngkin got close to 25% of the black vote and he's white.

Youngkin did not get 25% of the black vote.