PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Smh @ Dean/Houlahan. Don't they realize we can't save both of them in redistricting?

why not? Houlahan is mostly Chester and Dean is mostly Montco. Given the fact that both won by double digits in 2020 (Dean nearly 20%), I don't see a problem for either of them.

[wbrocks67]

I prefer Kenyatta but I think Fetterman probably wins the primary.

Kenyatta will need some major endorsements and a ton of $$$ to even have a chance, agreed.

[wbrocks67]

I honestly don't think Lamb has any interest in GOV, at least not right now

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1406927751723036673

[wbrocks67]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Yep. The only reason Parnell even had a chance to begin with was because of Trumps coattails.

[wbrocks67]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Nobody expected him to get that close. This is gaslighting. It's also a relatively well-off suburban area compared to the surrounding districts.

And what though? This was also a district that Trump won in 2016, and Biden only won by 3. It's clear Trump brought out his folks, and those folks also helped Parnell get so close.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1406927751723036673

100% forgot she was running. I don't think she is going to go very far. I bet Kenyatta gets more of the collar counties then she does

I think Arkoosh could do somewhat well theoretically, but yeah the issue is that even in Montgomery County (where I'm from), she's pretty unknown to the general public

[wbrocks67]

Take with a grain of salt, but PoliticsPA ran a poll asking who Democrats should nominate for US Senate and with over 3,700 votes cast, Malcolm Kenyatta edged out Conor Lamb as the readers' choice:

https://www.politicspa.com/reader-poll-democrats-should-nominate-kenyatta-for-u-s-senate-in-2022/98478/

Kenyatta 38%
Lamb 35%
Fetterman 15%
Arkoosh 6%
Street 1%

This would be great if it were true. I honestly think if Lamb jumps in my top 2 would be Kenyatta and Lamb, but not sure who I would choose.

I want to support Arkoosh in Montco but I just feel like she has no chance. Fetterman has fell a lot in my rankings.

[wbrocks67]

I guess right now I'm Kenyatta > Arkoosh > Fetterman

Lamb is the wildcard. I'd probably put him first then, but I'm not sure. I would really love for PA to break some real progressive ground with Kenyatta.

[wbrocks67]

I wouldn't be surprised if Biden endorses Lamb, assuming he endorses anyone in the primary.

Biden said the Lamb reminds him of his son Beau, which he also said about Buttigieg.

While he is more moderate than Fetterman or Kenyatta, he wouldn't be another Manchin or Sinema. He'd be more like a Booker, Klobuchar, or Gillibrand.

Lamb's voting record is similar to Sinema's and Angus King's. Booker, Gillibrand, and even Biden when he was in Congress were way more progressive than him.



He seems like an unnecessary pain in office with a mixed record electorally having underperformed Biden last year.

Biden won by 3, Lamb won by 2. It was basically the same

[wbrocks67]

I wouldn't be surprised if Biden endorses Lamb, assuming he endorses anyone in the primary.

Biden said the Lamb reminds him of his son Beau, which he also said about Buttigieg.

While he is more moderate than Fetterman or Kenyatta, he wouldn't be another Manchin or Sinema. He'd be more like a Booker, Klobuchar, or Gillibrand.

Lamb's voting record is similar to Sinema's and Angus King's. Booker, Gillibrand, and even Biden when he was in Congress were way more progressive than him.



He seems like an unnecessary pain in office with a mixed record electorally having underperformed Biden last year.

Biden won by 3, Lamb won by 2. It was basically the same

If Lamb only won by two in a D+3 year, he’s not winning statewide in what likely will be a R+0 or worse year.  Unless his district gets materially worse for him, he should just run for re-election.  I don’t believe any Dem can win the PA Senate seat in 2022.  No need to throw away a House seat for that.  Dems have nothing to lose with Fetterman.

Can't really extrapolate his district performance to the entire state.

[wbrocks67]

Q2 fundraising

John Fetterman (D) $2.55 million
Val Arkoosh (D) $1.03 million
Jeff Bartos (R) $1.01 million
Kathy Barnette (R) $595K
Sean Parnell (R) $561K
Malcolm Kenyatta (D) $503K
Sharif Street (D) $245K

Wow, shocked that Arkoosh raised that much. Maybe she's more formidable than I thought. I would love someone from Montco to win, but as I said before, I just thought she was too unknown.

Absolutely dead at Bartos and even whack job Barnette outraising "unbeatable titan" Sean Parnell

[wbrocks67]

How much did Lamb raise?

Nearly $1M

[wbrocks67]

Kathy Barnette is an absolute lunatic. I knew it last year when she ran in my district against Dean, but this just outlines her total lunacy.

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1419648887405559810

[wbrocks67]

I think the Lamb hate here is pretty overblown, and given PA's propensity for loving your "average sort of liberal Democratic white guy" (Wolf, Casey, etc.), Lamb fits the bill.

He's also not really as conservative as people make him out to be.

[wbrocks67]

Nobody more grateful for this news than Malcolm Kenyatta. Two white dudes from Pittsburgh splitting that vote gives him a real shot to capture not just Philly and the surrounding areas, but a lot of areas that would otherwise have voted for either Lamb or Fetterman like Erie, Lancaster, Lackawanna, etc.

I think Arkoosh might be a dark horse here though. Her fundraising was pretty surprising, she's the only female in the race, and Montco will likely strongly support her.

[wbrocks67]

Conor Lamb will win the primary and general.

Yeah, at the very least I think a lot of people here are being short-sighted and letting their biases get in the way.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/conorlambpa/status/1423617173222735876?s=21

Obviously we knew this was coming, but it's pretty annoying seeing it in real life. No more boring white men with recycled establishment talking points in the US Senate. This is the time to rally behind someone who will actually fight for the priorities of working people.

How is Lamb not doing that? I don't see how Lamb, Fetterman, Kenyatta, or Arkoosh are not this type of person? This is just being unnecessarily divisive.

[wbrocks67]

Ugh, this is going to be an interesting primary. Still not sure whether it's a good idea for Lamb to open up a competitive seat in the House. Would have been better to run for reelection in my opinion. He'd be a formidable GE candidate and good senator; I'm rooting for Fetterman nevertheless.

It's quite possible his district is destroyed in redistricting, too.

[wbrocks67]

This might be an interesting primary. PA primaries are really regional, and with two strong SW PA candidates, I wonder if that gives someone from SE PA the opportunity slip by.

The thing is, Kenyatta and Arkoosh really haven't proven to be super viable at this point. Interested to see if that changes.

[wbrocks67]

Conor Lamb will win the primary and general.

Yeah, at the very least I think a lot of people here are being short-sighted and letting their biases get in the way.

It’s reminding me of when Jon Ossoff announced. He might be “bland” to hyper partisans on Atlas but regular folks will eat his schtick up. He’s inoffensive to white people and is the exact type of white candidate old Black folks love. And when he’s in office he will vote like a mainstream Democrat and will never be the deciding vote that kills any Dem legislation. I’m here for it.

Not to mention, Ossoff is way more liberal in the senate then I think anyone expected. I think Lamb would be slightly more liberal in the Senate instead of his house seat (where he can breathe for 6 years instead of running every 2 in a close to 50/50 district)

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman will win the primary, appear to be ahead in polling, but lose to Parnell by 3-5 points.

Not sure if this a joke or not but Parnell was last in fundraising last quarter so I don't get why people keep pushing him as some unbeatable titan.

[wbrocks67]

I think there definitely is warranted skepticism of Fetterman, especially the 'Randy Bryce 2.0' thing. I think he's in a better position than that, but it should be noted of course, as some have already, that Fetterman is still relatively unproven.

Meanwhile, Lamb has the bonafides.

Lamb raised $1M last Q without even jumping in the race, so interested to see his figures this go around.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman will win the primary, appear to be ahead in polling, but lose to Parnell by 3-5 points.

Not sure if this a joke or not but Parnell was last in fundraising last quarter so I don't get why people keep pushing him as some unbeatable titan.

Like I said, Bartos may beat him. He has a lot of endorsements(particularly, Garrity). Which one do you think would be weaker?

It's honestly hard to say. Pennsylvania republicans are generally a lot less 'Trumpy' than a lot of the other comparable states, so I could see Bartos doing okay in the primary, but he's the least nutty of the bunch so I'd imagine he'd have the best general chances.

The thing though is that to get the Trumpy Republicans out in Nov 2022, the GOP nom is going to have to excite them somewhat and while Bartos might have the most potential crossover appeal, he doesn't excite the base. But likewise, Barnette and Parnell are whack jobs and excite the base but don't have much crossover appeal (Barnette had some in 2020, but that was before many realized who nutty she really was)

I would not be surprised if Barnette actually came out on top, since she seems to be doing well with fundraising too.

[wbrocks67]

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

Lamb's special election victory was much more a function of turnout dynamics in the immediate aftermath of the Trump shock than persuadable voters, and his 2018 performance was in, well, 2018. The district went for Biden in 2020, and he underperformed.

Given the propensity of many house democrats to considerably underperform Biden, no, I would not say Lamb underperformed. He nearly matched Biden. 51-48 and 50-48 is essentially the same.