Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[wbrocks67]

Well, the thing is, if the GOP felt good about this seat, why would they be resorting to tactics like those?

Secondly, it's wholy ironic given that the GOP is always playing their fiddle of sexuality and kids "being exposed to it" and then they do... that? Which is literally sending porn to homes?

[wbrocks67]

Now Youngkin is wading in? This feels like a really bad unforced error in the closing moments of this campaign

https://twitter.com/BPaves/status/1716792112803459310

[wbrocks67]

R share of in-person EV is clearly up compared to post-COVID history.  Question is whether this is new people or people who would have voted day-of in 2021?

The overall electorate will be R+, but according to Chaz Nuttycombe the swing district electorate will be D+.

The electorate was D+2 in 2021, I can't imagine it would be R this year.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1716842385055879517

[wbrocks67]

R share of in-person EV is clearly up compared to post-COVID history.  Question is whether this is new people or people who would have voted day-of in 2021?

The overall electorate will be R+, but according to Chaz Nuttycombe the swing district electorate will be D+.

The electorate was D+2 in 2021, I can't imagine it would be R this year.

I think it will be R given that Ds aren’t turning in inner NoVa, but it doesn’t give Rs a trifecta since Democrats are turning out in swing seats.

Nova turnout is still up in the air though; we don't know if by the end, it truly will just be bad turnout, or these voters are waiting for more EV centers/election day to vote.

[wbrocks67]

Dems have really ramped up spending:

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1716863436423070204

[wbrocks67]

Sending NC-17 material in the mail to voters is one of the last things a political party should be doing. I'm still skeptical of a candidate's ability to win after a leaked sex tape, basically, but this definitely isn't helping the GOP.

It wasn't that explicit . Just quotes of the acts and a photo of the stream albeit only showing her face and shoulders.

Honestly it doesn't matter what's inside at this point, the outside envelope was a complete backfire.

[wbrocks67]

Remarkably consistent:

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1717196442643661261

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1717686568444395903

[wbrocks67]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears that nonwhite turnout seems to be doing just fine in competitive races?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1717932899880546788

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1719069212453536021

[wbrocks67]

How is party tracked anyway when Virginia has an open primary?

Past voting history I believe

[wbrocks67]

Regarding Susanna Gibson, her mistake was trying to play the victim about the tapes being leaked. If she just said "so what" and focused on the other issues she might have been able to escape it. Instead, she blamed others for finding stuff that she willingfully posted online and it just looks pathetic.

Looks like she outraised her GOP counterpart though in the latest finance report...

[wbrocks67]

With one week left, a competitive district R is now stepping in it re: abortion

Senate hopeful Durant signals interest in going beyond 15 weeks on abortion
https://richmond.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/senate-hopeful-durant-signals-interest-in-going-beyond-15-weeks-on-abortion/article_60e81fb8-7754-11ee-acee-f36d56f1b7a6.html

[wbrocks67]

What was Youngkin’s approval in Morning Consult?

53/36

[wbrocks67]

Even with the Youngkin onslaught, Dems still outspending GOP by $7M

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1719415706125488167

[wbrocks67]

Seems enough attention is being paid to outer suburbs Biden +low districts (SD-27, HD-30, HD-71, HD-75) that Dems should probably feel pretty good?  Of course, the wildcard is an R surprise in some of the rural Southside or PWC majority-minority districts.  However, that only really impacts the HoD contest (it would impact SD-24, but that's already right of median).

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1719483956280578072

SD-27 is likely seat 23 for Dems in the senate.

If there's a Louisiana style situation with black turnout/Dem margins, it would jump ahead of SD-24 to seat 22.

It appears black turnout in the competitive districts seems to be doing okay.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1720003941654483014

[wbrocks67]

Chaz has gone full Skill and Chance:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1719921031199043857

Early voting just looks really R relative to expectations in Mason's SD-24.  Like more R than in several seats considered Lean R in both chambers!

What was this race in 2020-2022? Is it something that Dems should be winning?

BTW, is there a single resource that his the voting history of all of these new districts?

[wbrocks67]

Split Ticket predicts Democrats win, 51-49 in the House and 22-18 in the Senate

https://split-ticket.org/2023/11/03/our-november-2023-state-legislative-and-referendum-elections-preview/

[wbrocks67]

With all the talk of low NOVA turnout, looks like Loudoun came thru on Saturday:

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1720981384511000892

[wbrocks67]

72 % of 2021 is weak. Isn't it ?

There's also not many competitive races though, so 72% of 2021 with a high profile statewide governor race is pretty great imo.

[wbrocks67]

I'm no VA expert, but still seems very wrong to say "oh not looking good for ___ in ____" given that it's clear that there will still be an extremely healthy election day vote this year. And I say that whether it's a D or R race. Turnout in this situation can only take you very far given that we seem to be reverting back to a major ED vote in a state like VA.

[wbrocks67]

co/efficient (R) once again has a tie

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1721558988209185074