Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[wbrocks67]

~118k in Loudon. MSNBC projecting close to 160K votes there.

[wbrocks67]

Kornacki's board appearing to show that Loudon is all ED and not early or VBM.

[wbrocks67]

I think the problem is no one knows what's actually in at this point, with ED vs early vs. mail

[wbrocks67]

Even if Youngkin wins, it appears the red mirage of 2020 is real, with basically all Election Day votes coming in right now and no early/VBM

[wbrocks67]

Seems theres a total pause on any early/VBM results, as ED continues to roll in

[wbrocks67]

Not sure why they haven’t called it for Youngkin yet? Where’s TMAC supposed to make up the deficit?

Tons of NOVA isn't in.

[wbrocks67]

VPAP a bit behind, but saying 40% of Election Day is in, but only 10% of early vote is in

https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/20211102/statewide/

[wbrocks67]

Kornacki says 16K mail-ins are left in Loudon to count

[wbrocks67]

Hopefully this will teach Democrats from ever spouting about CRT again.

Republicans are literally the only ones I ever hear talk about it.

Right. I have not heard one Democrat talk about critical race theory unless it is to say that it isn't being taught in K-12 schools. The lies that Republicans tell.

Yep, GOP always gets to control the narrative. Dems are always on the defense no matter what, b/c the GOP doesn't care about cooking up these storylines, whether they're true or not. And mainstream outlets go right along with it.

[wbrocks67]

Total insanity that McAuliffe got punished for something in Loudoun that literally had nothing to do with him or the Democratic party.

[wbrocks67]

VPAP finally updated

55% E-day votes in
21% early votes in

https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/20211102/statewide/

[wbrocks67]

Early vote has stalled, basically. Still only 21% in, compared with 60% of E-Day.

https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/20211102/statewide/

[wbrocks67]

Something else that is obvious - young voters just didn't show up, and the electorate that did was pretty R.

McAuliffe still only winning 18-29 year olds by 7% in updated exit. That's just horrific for that age group for a Dem. Don't imagine young people actually like Youngkin, so just a matter of young Dems not showing up.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure if it's been posted, but exits have been adjusted

Youngkin fav: 50/46 (+4)
McAuliffe fav: 47/50 (-3)
Trump fav: 40/55 (-15)

Biden approval: 46/53 (-7)

Turnout revised to 36% D, 34% R, 30% I, which was essentially what it was in 2020. Only this time McAuliffe's issue was he lost Indies by 9, when Biden won them by double digits.

Also apparently there were slightly more Biden/Youngkin crossover voters than Trump/McAuliffe.

[wbrocks67]

1 year to course correct.

1 year.

Otherwise, well, I know some of y'all are too young to really remember 2010. Let me just say it is PAIN.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455709997887787009?s=20

It’s over.

While Democrats certainly have an uphill battle next year, I think the fact that some pundits are acting like things will be the exact same in 12 months is a bit misguided.

The insurrection was only 10 months ago. Look at how much has changed. Biden's approvals were like +10 in June, just 5 months ago. We honestly don't know what Nov 2022 will look like

[wbrocks67]

Yoú have to be a serious D hack to spin this as "this doesn’t tell us anything about 2022." If Republicans lost a high-profile, high-turnout, nationalized gubernatorial campaign in Iowa (as well as all of their statewide offices, one of which was held by an incumbent) and were only three points away from an embarrassment in Tennessee, no one would pretend that this somehow wouldn’t foreshadow a disastrous environment for them in next year's midterm elections. Obviously federal races aren’t gubernatorial races, but there was a very clear pattern in those elections, and it’s very, very bad for Democrats across the board. You can maybe explain away the PA races (but even that would require letting the "D base turns out at a far higher rate than the GOP base, especially without Trump on the ballot" theory go), but if you had told anyone in January 2021 that Northern Virginia and New Jersey of all places would have such sizable swings to the Republicans, you would have been laughed off the forum and mocked relentlessly.

You're being disingenuous. I never said it tell us "NOTHING" about 2022. If Biden is in the same spot as he is now in a year, then yeah, it's gonna be bad.

But you just proved your own point - in January 2021, things looked a LOT different. If the election was held in January 2021, Dems likely would've won in VA and done better in NJ. Totally different environment - but that's the point. Things are much more different than they were in January, and even much different where they were in June when there was no delta variant, no supply chain issues, no inflation, and Biden was riding high. The point is Dems historically are not in a good place, but no one knows what the environment will be in a year.

COVID could be totally gone, unemployment even lower, supply chain/inflation issues over. Or it could be the opposite. We don't know.

[wbrocks67]

There is no way McAullife won hispanics by 37 points. I can buy him winning them but he definitely did worse than biden.

The truth is probably in between the exits (Youngkin +11 and McAuliffe +37)

[wbrocks67]

Latest results with more vote added is

Youngkin +1.9%
Sears +1.6%
Miyares +0.8%

Too bad for Herring, he's only down about 28,000 votes right now.

[wbrocks67]

It's ironic that Youngkin got so mad at the Trumpkin thing given that his new EO's are literally Trumpkin in nature.

[wbrocks67]

Blue state red governors are almost always either enormously popular or enormously unpopular. I have a feeling Youngkin is going to be the latter of the two by the end of his term.

Why do you say so? It's certainly clear that Youngkin is governing, or will be governing, to the right of Baker, Hogan, and Scott.

Exactly, so he won't enjoy the support of Indies and Dems like the ones you mentioned

[wbrocks67]

Youngkin has actually been way worse than I think anyone would've imagined. Total buyers remorse in VA  I think.

[wbrocks67]

Buyers remorse for Indies and Dems who crossed over, of course. No one's talking about the GOP base, who is probably excited that Youngkin is way more R than he campaigned on.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, Youngkin having a -2% approval already, and his approval being barely over 40% just a few months into his admin is just terrible. Shows that this is clearly not what Virginia at large really wanted

[wbrocks67]

Youngkin is clearly one of the top contenders in a Trump-less field, though he really, really needs to work on his charisma.

LMAO, what? How? The base would've never voted for Youngkin in a primary.

[wbrocks67]

Youngkin's CNN town hall last night was a mess, as expected. The fact that anyone thinks this man is POTUS quality is stunning.