AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[wbrocks67]

Do yall have any reasoning or evidence to make this race tilt R? Kelly underperforming is not a good reason since Dems underperformed pretty much everywhere at every level.

It's tossup/tilt D till I see more.

Also, Kelly underperformed 'polls' but outperformed Biden, so he didn't really underperform.

[wbrocks67]

Kelly with an eye-popping $11.3M haul in Q1

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1512116281276870658?s=20&t=ybsVgnZ-_I-1-YYQ5lIlzQ

[wbrocks67]

It's good he has the money, but money itself doesn't matter, it's really how one uses it to campaign (and only that can do so much). I expect once we have a claer picture of the R, they will be well funded too.

Until Kari Lake brings down the entire ticket.

[wbrocks67]

It's good he has the money, but money itself doesn't matter, it's really how one uses it to campaign (and only that can do so much). I expect once we have a claer picture of the R, they will be well funded too.

Until Kari Lake brings down the entire ticket.

I don't think Kari Lake is any less strong than Generic R.

I would disagree. She's a total crackpot and has went out of her way to endorse far-right conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and other things. She's way worse than a generic R. At this point, McSally would basically be a generic R and Lake is way more far-right than she is, and unabashedly so.

[wbrocks67]

Not great fundraising

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1513992080078557190

[wbrocks67]

Unfortunately for some, most swing voters won't remember (or care about) these comments by Election Day, even if Kelly runs ads attacking him on this nonstop.

sis you really do the MOST in trying to defend Republicans at all costs.

there's no defending this - Masters is a terrible candidate and Trump picked another awful one.

[wbrocks67]

More negative coverage for Masters from his online writings-


https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1545001251498299392

[wbrocks67]

Mark Kelly raises $13.6M in Q2

https://twitter.com/anthonyadragna/status/1547211453991735296?s=21&t=Mfj_0XBpc-ss4xSKWtRLng

[wbrocks67]

Mark Kelly raises $13.6M in Q2

https://twitter.com/anthonyadragna/status/1547211453991735296?s=21&t=Mfj_0XBpc-ss4xSKWtRLng

and his opponents - yikes

Blake Masters - $827K
Jim Lamon - $1.2M ($1M of his own)
Mark Bronvich - $527K

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1548249380943118336

[wbrocks67]

This is the guy who people think is prime to beat Kelly?

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1550640231170326528

[wbrocks67]

Brnovich ran such a bad campaign it's hilarious. He might somehow still get second but I just don't see how he can win at this point. I will be voting for Blake Masters, he is a really smart guy and has potential to be a great senator. His messaging against Mark Kelly is already miles better than McSally's was, although tbf McSally was kind of doomed regardless.

What makes Masters stronger than McSally and don’t you think Masters will turn off moderate Republicans in Maricopa county?

Martha McSally's campaign was a complete desperation play. She was mailing out Mark Kelly space station CCP motion cards, I wanted her to win but it was pure desperation and anyone could tell. Mark Kelly had no voting record too, so it was really hard to attack him. What made matters worse, is that she literally lost the 2018 Senate race and was appointed to the office just weeks later. There is no real incumbent advantage if you were appointed to the position.

Now that Kelly has an actual record, (and it isn't a moderate one), it is much easier to attack him especially with inflation out of control and a border crisis happening. Masters also brings his own ideas to the table (being able to raise a family with a single income). As for the suburbs, he hasn't really said anything that extreme. Most people do not like Fauci, illegal immigrants, crime. His comments might be a bit rough, but these are the same suburbs that elected Trump in 2016 and barely voted Biden in 2020, it's not like he is running in NOVA.

That doesn't explain her losses though. When she ran in 2018 she hadn't lost at all and when she lost in 2020 she only lost once.

Her 2018 campaign wasn't that bad, I think she would have won if it was a better year for the GOP. Sinema had an iffy record in the past and McSally's ads focused on her military career. In 2020 though it just fell apart for her.

But the AZ suburbs are still trending blue, aren't they? And Masters is easily more extreme than McSally ever was.

[wbrocks67]

Masters continues with the 2020 election denying.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1553066033279389703

[wbrocks67]

Ah yes, Blake Masters, a white man, seems very in tune in to exactly what Hispanics and Latinos "hate the most"

[wbrocks67]

Ah yes, Blake Masters, a white man, seems very in tune in to exactly what Hispanics and Latinos "hate the most"

Tbf Hobbs isn't Hispanic either.

I'm talking about the tweet from Masters who claims to know so much about what Latinos/Hispanics want or don't want while he's pushing replacement theory and racist rhetoric. Not sure how Hobbs factors into that

[wbrocks67]

Courier News/Data for Progress poll has Kelly's job approval at 54/42.

https://coppercourier.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/dfp-courier-state-az-wave1-july29-poll.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Why does Masters even care what the NYT says then about him if he thinks its a democrat rag outlet?

[wbrocks67]

538 polling average page is up

right now it's Kelly +8.6

Kelly 50%
Masters 41.4%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/

Kelly hitting magic 50 already.

[wbrocks67]

However, that ad doesn't really say anything about where he stands on a lot of important issues and that's what he's going to need to figure out how to present, especially since a lot of his stances are not in line with the median AZ voter.

Yeah, that's why it's a good ad. When you're a fascist like Masters, presenting yourself as a "generic Republican" is the best strategy, especially when running against a strong candidate like Mark Kelly.

The less Masters opens his mouth, the better his chances, and he seems disciplined enough to know when to shut up.

The problem for these candidates though is that you can't just act like voters have not seen your previous ads that you ran during the primary or have not heard about you until now. Sure, there will be people who are fresh eyes who are tuning in now. But people are more in tune than ever before, so to me it's almost treating voters like their idiots when you completely change up your messaging so blatantly to fit a different audience now.

[wbrocks67]

and the Social Security comments have now officially come back to haunt Masters

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1559511497121865728

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/azpolitico22/status/1561908758678085634?t=IrhlZutHt7PveQBgvMMViA&s=19

Unlike Progressive Moderate R nut map Kelly has a 80%/19 CHANCE of winning

Kelly 80
Master 19.1

If Master has only 19.1% who has the other 0.9%?

Honestly the DDHQ model seems like a hot mess right now. Maybe they'll figure it out, but there seems to be too many kinks atm

[wbrocks67]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

Looks smart. Arizona does feel like a place in which an "non-libertarian thing the government did" could be more effectively attacked than elsewhere.

Except immigration continues to sink in the top issues for voters and COVID-19 is basically non-existent in voters worries as well.

I get the idea that he's pushing but it's kind of like pushing CRT at this point. It's just not as potent of an issue.

[wbrocks67]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

It’s malpractice that we’re not seeing more R’s hammer the covid issue. I know it’s settled, but they resoundingly won the debate. Democrats, on the other hand, will smartly talk an issue into oblivion if they feel they have the upper hand. We need less vengeful toxicity towards people like Fauci and more proposals like “the government mandate protection act”, particularly in places like Arizona and Nevada.

We’ll see if they’re smart enough to use the student loans situation to an advantage. They should be portraying Biden as a good ol’ boy giving out checks to upper middle class white yuppie’s while the economy is bad. Instead we’ll probably see more lines like “vote for me to reduce inflation!” as if voters will think republicans are magical inflation specialists

You really don't understand *who* exactly has college loans, do you? This is exactly the type of tone-deafness that will hurt Republicans even more with constituencies that are trending against them (not just college+ whites, but minorities, young people, etc.)

[wbrocks67]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

It’s malpractice that we’re not seeing more R’s hammer the covid issue. I know it’s settled, but they resoundingly won the debate. Democrats, on the other hand, will smartly talk an issue into oblivion if they feel they have the upper hand. We need less vengeful toxicity towards people like Fauci and more proposals like “the government mandate protection act”, particularly in places like Arizona and Nevada.

We’ll see if they’re smart enough to use the student loans situation to an advantage. They should be portraying Biden as a good ol’ boy giving out checks to upper middle class white yuppie’s while the economy is bad. Instead we’ll probably see more lines like “vote for me to reduce inflation!” as if voters will think republicans are magical inflation specialists

You really don't understand *who* exactly has college loans, do you? This is exactly the type of tone-deafness that will hurt Republicans even more with constituencies that are trending against them (not just college+ whites, but minorities, young people, etc.)

I’m not going to argue about the realities of the issue itself on this thread, but I did not say that’s the reality. I said that’s what they should make the perception. Regardless, there’s not some huge pool of swing voters who are college educated with loans currently. That’s an extremely small subset of the voting population and the vast majority are already hostile to republicans. Of the ones that aren’t, many are already partisan republicans.

Meanwhile, I can think of several angles republicans can use it;

1. Driving a wedge with middle-aged college educated voters that already paid loans off. I personally know of two democrats in this boat that were angered by the idea. It’s not just some fringe group

2. Driving a wedge with voters of all races that never attended college. This is also one of the most “undecided” subgroups according to multiple polls

3. Having a concrete example to campaign on Biden ignoring inflation. Regardless of if it’s actually contributing to inflation, voters associate inflation with handing out free money.

4. Changing the subject of debate, and hoping the media keys in on the annoying Twitter libs that are complaining about wanting more (another thing I’ve heard even democrats be exasperated by)

Sorry bub, you're not gonna win this one. A large majority of those with student loans make <$80K a year. That IS the middle class. The only people actually upset about this are rich people.

[wbrocks67]

This entire thing is a hot mess and this just makes it even worse for Masters. Kelly can now call him a liar and someone who's willing to just say whatever to get elected.

Masters is now *lying* about his previous stance. He's just digging himself into a bigger hole

https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1562813594588176388

[wbrocks67]

I feel like all I ever see is the GOP pulling spending from competitive races. Are they actually spending money anywhere? Where's it all going?

Fwiw Oz actually has ads up on the air in Pennsylvania for the first time since the primary.

Those are still mostly CLF ads lol. Oz is still broke himself.