Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[wbrocks67]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-pandemic-approval-covid-19-opinion-poll/

Biden at 58/42 per CBS.

Both youGov - but this one Biden +10 with Indies while the Economist tracker always has him down double digits with Indies.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1417469873702285312

[wbrocks67]

Honestly the only thing we can do is look at the 538 average, because I do not think Bidens approval is as high as AP (+19) or as low as Civiqs (-6). Even Gallup seems a bit low - though the cross tabs are a bit messy so that's not surprising.

538 currently has +10, which sounds about right.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1420476812593876993

For a D+14 sample, those numbers ain't beautiful.

It also doesn't help that 20% of the Black vote is undecided. (neither do I believe that he has nearly a 20% disapproval rate among that group)

Either way, YouGov, for the 500th time, for some reason has a real issue getting a proper sample of Independents. They've consistently had Biden down in that group ever since he was inaugurated, even in the double digits such as this poll, which usually does not bare out in many other polls. They generally have had a pretty conservative leaning Indie group for a while.

[wbrocks67]

The thing with Biden's approval too, at least compared with Trumps, is that with Trump you pretty much had every Trump voter always saying they approved of him, no matter what. It was universal.

With Biden, however, you have more a voter base that is willing to say they disapprove of him or don't agree, even if they voted for him and would vote for him again.

Especially with the 18-34 base. Look at Monmouth, it's 45/38/17. So not only are the #s skewed bc of the nearly 20% who 'don't know' but you only have +7 approve with a crowd that was over Biden +20 in the election. They're just more willing to voice when they don't agree, versus Trump's cult that would always say they agreed no matter what.

I think it's so interesting though that Biden is -15 with Indies here too. Again, I do believe that the Indie samples are varying greatly depending on the pollster, but I also think it's certainly ridiculous that so many independents were fine with Trump, giving him better ratings when he was out there doing nothing and causing a sh**t storm, and then now when Biden is actually getting things done, and trying to get things done, they're suddenly disapproving.

[wbrocks67]

Which poll do you want to believe?

The averages.

Yep. I also think the Ipsos poll is a great example of the "Independent battle" that's been going on. Pollsters need to be careful about the Independent samples, because it certainly seems like they've been getting a more conservative "indie" sample in many. Ipsos seems closer to how'd you expect it to be (maybe 50/50 with true independents)

[wbrocks67]

Both the NJ and the CO poll suggest biden national approval is NOT in the double digits like some polls show.

should be noted that both those polls are very old, not sure why they're being posted.

but funny enough they both line up with Biden's approval about +8-ish right now, which is exactly what 538 shows

[wbrocks67]

Biden is in a precarious spot b/c Republicans will be anti-Biden just for the sake of it, and he has to worry about his approval among Democrats b/c some will 'disapprove' just because he's not being liberal enough for their personal taste.

Independents are still curious. I don't get it. Trump always had better than expected numbers with Indies even when he was a disaster, so it's frustrating to see them not giving Biden that same benefit of the doubt.

I still maintain that pollsters are getting too conservative of a sample among Indies.

[wbrocks67]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OneNationCon/status/1425526089456181251

Why are we posting RCP? They're notorious for not including certain pollsters or cherry picking R internals but not D internals. It's not a full picture.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1425507048243011584

[wbrocks67]

Fox News Poll

53% approve
46% disapprove

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/high-concern-over-higher-prices

[wbrocks67]

Gonna go officially negative within two weeks. Foreign policy was not a weak spot for biden, will be now.

Who the hell cares about Afghanistan? 

This is the truth, whether it's morally right or not. Most Americans can't be bothered to care about their fellow *Americans*, let alone people in a different country.

[wbrocks67]

Biden's approvals are now under 50% in biased 538. You know he done f-uped if he can't get good numbers out of there.

Rasmussen showing -7 so this isn't surprising.

[wbrocks67]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Cmkahn/status/1427740288961896450

And ipsos has been one of this friendliest this year

Huh, so as of 8/15, which included part of what was happening, his poll numbers were fine.

But then when the media absolutely whipped itself into an insane frenzy, they dropped. Not very shocking.

Also kind of irresponsible for Ipsos to compare a one day poll to a 3 day poll.

And don't even get me started on the ridiculous answers inside that poll.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1427792672660463618

I genuinely wonder what Biden’s approval would look like if the sample was D+4 or so- exactly the same as the 2020 electorate.

My guess would be 42-48% approval and a 48-56% disapproval currently. The Afghanistan situation definitely didn’t do him any favors.

I mean, you don't have to wonder.... Ipsos re-weighted the poll to a normal electorate and not the D+20 one, and that's how it was 46/47.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist
August 14-17

(RV)

Biden favorability: 50/47 (+3)
Biden COVID-19 approval: 48/46 (+2)
Biden job approval: 47/47 (=)

Kamala Harris favorability: 45/49 (-4)
Kamala Harris job approval: 42/47 (-5)

Approve of the plan to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan by September 11th? 47/36 (+11)
Biden approval on 'handling the war in Afghanistan': 35/45 (-10)
Do you think the US made a mistake by recently withdrawing troops from Afghanistan? 36/36 (=)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/oacaip2ls4/econTabReport.pdf

What also continue to skew these numbers a bit is that on every single one, more Biden voters pick 'not sure' than Trump voters, especially in the Afghanistan approval question. 21% Biden voters picked not sure, versus 9% of Trump voters

[wbrocks67]

Interestingly enough, despite Biden's approval taking a hit in the YouGov poll, his favorability did not change.

I say interesting given many Dems online(TM) calling him a 'monster' over this

[wbrocks67]

It's already been mentioned, but here's the usual information on the weekly Economist/YouGov tracker.  Aug. 14-17, 1500 adults including 1250 RV.


Adults:

Approve 44 (-2)
Disapprove 44 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 33 (nc)


RV:

Approve 47 (nc)
Disapprove 47 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 37 (+1)

Given recent events, not much of a change. Though YouGov has been on the lower end for him recently for a while now.

[wbrocks67]

This is the first bad news to happen that happened entirely while Joe Biden has been President.   

Support for Joe Biden has been falsely manufactured by corporate news media.

Biden’s 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency, with unseating Republican incumbent Donald Trump due to COVID–19, was an unimpressive +4.45 percentage points and 25 carried states—which are only 50 percent of the nation’s rates—and 306 electoral votes (the lowest for a Democratic presidential pickup winner since 1976 Jimmy Carter).

The 60-or-so-percent “approval” for Biden, earlier, in 2021…was not believable in relation to electoral politics. That level was…Honeymoon Approval.

The 2022 Republicans have just about the easiest path to flipping the U.S. House of Representatives that could be asked for. Come to think—needing only +5 pickups is something that some may not have thought to ask for.

And somehow those 25 states represented 7 million more voters! What a terrible way of looking at the numbers. The # of states makes no difference.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.twitter.com/OneNationCon/status/1428421471211335683
Civitas overestimated Roy Cooper by 5 points in 2020, and also had Biden and Cheatin’ Cal narrowly winning my state.

Either way, if this poll is even remotely accurate this time, this isn’t golly news for Biden whatsoever.

Even on a bad day, there is no way that Biden is -11 in a state he lost by 1.

[wbrocks67]

Biden is now at the doorstep of underwater approvals over at RCP. And at 538 he is nearing the same.

Biden is a failed president.

Trump literally got to a -20 approval rating multiple times of his presidency and he nearly won another term. So....

[wbrocks67]

I think a bigger longterm threat to Biden's approval ratings will be the confusion surrounding COVID-19. Regardless of how anyone in this thread feels, our government's messaging basically went from "If you get vaccinated, you get your life back to normal" to "If you get vaccinated, you're still at risk and a risk to others and need to keep wearing masks and now need to get vaccinated again every 8 months and even then you probably still aren't safe." That's ultimately going to be much more frustrating to American voters than Afghanistan which is more complicated since even those who disapprove of him wanted us out of the region.

Not the government's fault. What else are they supposed to? If people don't get vaccinated, plans will have to (and they already have) changed. The anti vaccine and anti maskers are the ones that are ruining everything for everyone, so it's bewildering how Biden's handling of COVID has gone down when he's done everything he could possibly do.

[wbrocks67]

Funny how non-response bias was always used against Trump polls when he had a 'scandal' but not for BIden right now. Clearly what could be going on.

41/55 is ridiculous, as is -10 in NH. His approval has clearly taken a hit but these are just extreme and outliers.

[wbrocks67]

Funny how non-response bias was always used against Trump polls when he had a 'scandal' but not for BIden right now. Clearly what could be going on.

41/55 is ridiculous, as is -10 in NH. His approval has clearly taken a hit but these are just extreme and outliers.

What? That's a massive leap. Nonresponse bias is generally evidenced by shifts in party identification, and is an issue because party ID != party identification. Unless you can show crosstabs that show that skewing, then this argument is moot.

What's worrying for Biden is the drop with independents (again, we'll need to see if this drop is because people identifying as democrats are parking as independents), and that drops in handling of Covid and the Economy are greater than drops on foreign policy.

Biden isn't at 41% approval, but I don't think anybody would argue he's closer to that than to 50%.

How is that a massive leap? We saw all the time arguments when Trump's approval plummeted to like 35% that Republicans just weren't participating in polls moreso bc the news was so bad for Trump. I don't see why they couldn't apply here.

[wbrocks67]

Funny how non-response bias was always used against Trump polls when he had a 'scandal' but not for BIden right now. Clearly what could be going on.

41/55 is ridiculous, as is -10 in NH. His approval has clearly taken a hit but these are just extreme and outliers.

Wbrocks disregarding polls that differ from his accepted narrative..

Never changes.. you would think you'd learn.

The facts are that a 41/55 approval is out of step with every other poll we've gotten, so idk what you're trying to dispute here.

Just as a -10 approval for a state he won by 7.