Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[wbrocks67]

Wow, even the dumbest state in the union approves of our President!
https://twitter.com/_dinger_s/status/1371494001329770500?s=21

Maybe but it is also possible (and probably more likely) than their poll is simply oversampling left leaning voters.

Not really, Ernst and Grassley both have net positives and even Trump has a +3 approval rating, so I'd say it's probably accurate with the balance. Since I was shocked to see Trump with a positive approval rating tbh.

[wbrocks67]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 13-17, 1500 adults including 1218 RV

Adults:

Approve 53 (+3)
Disapprove 37 (-3)

Strongly approve 32 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 28 (-3)

RV:

Approve 55 (+3)
Disapprove 41 (nc)

Strongly approve 36 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 32 (-1)

America loves Uncle Joe!

[wbrocks67]

Gallup, March 1-15, 1010 adults (1-month change)

Approve 54 (-2)
Disapprove 42 (+2)

It is obviously far too early to tell whether this approval rating will hold, but should it hold President Biden is looking into an electoral victory in which he gets about 400 electoral votes. This is the zone in which the President gets 53-57% of the popular vote, and President Biden would look into an Eisenhower-scale win in popular votes.

President Biden has so far dodged controversy well. It is still early. Nobody successfully dodges controversy predictably and reliably as President.

Trump was never at this level, and if it isn't quite near the top for Obama, it is within the Obama range. Obama got re-elected decisively.

especially given the press has tried to make like 10 things a 'controversy' by now

[wbrocks67]

For what it is worth:

March 1-7
588 registered voters

Favorabilities

Joe Biden: 52/45 (+7)
John Fetterman: 29/20 (+9)
Malcolm Kenyatta: 10/6 (+4)
Mitch McConnell: 18/64 (-46)
Donald Trump: 43/54 (-11)

Do you think of yourself as a Trump Republican, a traditional Republican, or something else?
267 Republicans

Trump Republican 42%
Traditional Republican 38%
Something else 17%
Do not know 4%

Do you think of yourself as a progressive Democrat, a centrist Democrat, or something else?
243 Democrats

Centrist Democrat 45%
Progressive Democrat 33%
Something else 15%
Do not know 7%

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/200017560246277019-fmmarch2021-topline.pdf

This looks like a better position for Democrats five months after the Presidential election than at the time in which Pennsylvania had a nail-biter contest. It is favorability, and not approval, in a swing state. It would be on the map if it were "approval". 

And this looks like a bit of an R-leaning sample too.

[wbrocks67]

56/40 is hard to swallow but it would not be impossible to believe that North Carolina's Trump fever has finally broken a bit.

[wbrocks67]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 20-23, 1500 adults including 1267 RV

Adults:

Approve 50 (-3)
Disapprove 41 (+4)

Strongly approve 28 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 31 (+3)

RV:

Approve 51 (-4)
Disapprove 43 (+2)

Strongly approve 31 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 35 (+3)

This poll has been bouncy the last few weeks.

Yeah this appears to be a more R sample. Kamala's favorability went from like +4/5 to -6 in a week.

[wbrocks67]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 24-25, 1005 adults

Approve 53 (-6)
Disapprove 41 (+6)

This poll has been very bouncy lately.  Last four weeks:

3/4: 58/35
3/11: 54/39
3/18: 59/35
3/25: 53/41

This is also why people feel they can't trust polls. They're too allover the place from week to week with totally different samples.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MysteryPollster/status/1376529419871879169

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MysteryPollster/status/1376529419871879169

The level is 53%, btw.

But it is not his "highest"?

According to 538, he was at 62% in YouGov MAR. 10-13 (an hit 60+% couple of times before that).

YouGov/Yahoo =/= YouGov =/= YouGov/Economist

[wbrocks67]

Wow, I remember Trump started off in the negatives but I didn't realize he was already close to -15 by day 69. I mean, he deserved it, but I thought it was still like in the higher single digits at that point still.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, Arizona has moved quite a bit left just in the last 4 years, but yeah, Joe with a +16 approval there is pretty jarring.

But it could be much like GA, where things are accelerating at a fast tip. Even with super charged Trumper turnout, Biden and Kelly still won. Will be interesting to see where it goes from here.

[wbrocks67]

Marist, March 22-25, 1309 adults including 1167 RV (change from early March)

Adults:

Approve 52 (+3)
Disapprove 40 (-2)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 29 (-1)

RV:

Approve 52 (+4)
Disapprove 41 (-2)

Strongly approve 22 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 31 (nc)

This seems more realistic than their last poll which seemed ridiculous (approval at only +5)

[wbrocks67]

If you believe the polls, I feel bad for you.

Polls are useful tools that provide value but have limitations.  Yes, people shouldn't believe in poll results without question.  But dismissing them completely is just as unwise.

Should also be mentioned that polls actually nailed Biden's % of the vote in 2020. They didn't do that well on Trump's %, but they nailed Biden voters.

[wbrocks67]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 3-6, 1500 adults including 1243 RV

Adults:

Approve 49 (+1)
Disapprove 41 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 31 (nc)

RV:

Approve 52 (+2)
Disapprove 42 (-1)

Strongly approve 34 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 34 (-1)

COVID-19 approval also up to +20. It was like 16-18 before.

[wbrocks67]

New CNN poll actually has Harris's approval higher than Biden's!

Biden job approval: 53/43 (+10)
Harris VP job approval: 53/38 (+15)

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2021/images/04/28/rel3bbiden100days.pdf

[wbrocks67]

I'm surprised you guys still trust polls so much after how badly they were off in Nov 2020

Not exactly true. Things were more fluid than that, and you know it.

Not to mention, the aggregrates had Joe Biden at 51% of the national vote on average. Joe Biden received 51% of the vote.

[wbrocks67]

I'm surprised you guys still trust polls so much after how badly they were off in Nov 2020

Not exactly true. Things were more fluid than that, and you know it.

Not to mention, the aggregrates had Joe Biden at 51% of the national vote on average. Joe Biden received 51% of the vote.

Exit polls indicate that undecided voters split almost evenly to Biden-Trump. The pre-election polls were systemically underpolling Trump voters. Data for Progress has found that there are a lot of liberals who are very eager to answer polls, and a lot of loyal Trumpers who hang up the instant they are asked to be polled. The polling industry is in complete shambles, which sucks for me because I love having concrete data

It's really not, though. Once again - I reiterate - Biden actually nailed his % in the aggregate. And the GA runoff polls were very accurate as well.

[wbrocks67]

Should be noted that that particular YouGov poll was an outlier - this week its back to 48/47 (+1) which is where it's been for months now, give or take a few points.

Also YouGov is notorious for polling Independents that are basically Republicans. Dems scores with Indies are always terrible for some reason in their polls.

[wbrocks67]

It's important to note to GOPers in order for them to take the H they are gonna have to win Ballot test they haven't won since 2016 by 1 lousy pt

The Gingrich Revolution offered term limits and balance budgets what does Mccarthy offer oil drilling and tax cuts for rich which we as voters voted out 100 days ago with Trump

The Rs aren't gonna take the H,not with Biden at 59 percent Approvals

Trump lost the H at 46 Percent approvals, Cali Redistricting is gonna ensure our H Majority

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1393644745616932866

That said, there's little sign that Trump is even on the minds' of most voters these days. He's not on Twitter, and Google searches for him are way down. Indeed, there's not much of a sign that the GOP's association with Trump is hurting them at this point.

Take a look at the generic congressional ballot. Democrats hold a slight lead of about 3 to 4 points in an average of polls. Trump lost the 2020 election by 4.5 points, and House Republicans lost nationally by 3.1 points.

In other words, Republicans are in no worse position than they were in the 2020 election. In fact, they're actually polling better now on the generic ballot than they were heading into the last election by about 3 to 4 points because polling across the board underestimated Republicans.

If Republicans were underperforming their baseline, you'd expect them to be doing worse than what President Joe Biden's approval ratings would suggest. Biden's net approval rating (approval - disapproval) among voters is just north of +10 points, which is actually more than double the Democrats' advantage on the generic ballot.

When we look at the limited data, as compiled by Ethan Chen, from special legislative elections throughout the country during the Biden administration, we see a similar trend.
Comparing the results in those elections to the 2020 presidential election in those districts, we see that there hasn't been much movement on the whole.

Examining all special elections where at least one Democrat and one Republican ran, Republicans are outperforming their 2020 baseline by 3 points on average. Not counting those elections with multiple Democrats or Republicans running (i.e. jungle primaries) or with a major independent candidate, Republicans are matching their 2020 position.

Keep in mind that even a small tick toward the Republicans would have resulted in a very different outcome in 2020. Biden won the state that put him over the top in the Electoral College (Wisconsin) by less than a point. Republicans were just 5 seats away from getting a House majority and a mere 1 seat from earning a Senate majority.

They don't need a lot of things to change to win back the House or the Senate in 2022.
Republicans only need their 2020 base and a little more.

Am I missing all of these GCB polls? Seems odd for Enten to even bring that up when we've got like *nothing* on that front...

[wbrocks67]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 9-10, 1004 adults

Approve 55 (+1)
Disapprove 40 (-2)

Approval by party:

D: 90 (+2)
R: 20 (+4)

This isn't the usual PowerPoint (which should be at https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/ipsos-core-political-survey-presidential-approval-tracker-06102021 but is missing).  The linked page includes a fairly nice graphical presentation that lets you view approval among various demographics.

This again builds on the narrative that Biden is sustaining just enough support to win. The problem that Democrats have is with downballot radicals destroying any possible coattails. Voters simply haven't come around on a lot of issues that Democrats need to work harder on distancing themselves on and have been ignoring other issues for way too long. The returns from being "the adult in the room" have essentially run out.

This isn't true - polling has shown that voters have been with Biden/Dems on nearly every plan they've put out?

[wbrocks67]

That substak post is a bit ridiculous. First of all, we're only 5 months in. And we're likely looking at another big bill being pushed through reconciliation. So maybe slow your roll a bit? It's always all or nothing with these progressives. God forbid not everything they want happens - then it apparently means nothing was accomplished.

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth and YouGov both showing Joey <40% with indies, <60% with moderates, and 50+% disapprovals with indies……. Not panic time though this is Ruh Roh Raggy territory.

I think it's more about the same of Indies. I think pollsters need to do a better job of sifting through which way they lean. Monmouth has 44% Indies in this, way more than Dems/Rs. But if you have an Indie sample that leans 70% Rep/30% Dem, it's going to skew it.

Same thing with YouGov, where Biden has always had terrible ratings with Indies there, even though he won them in the election and other pollsters had much better #s for him with then.

I don't believe Biden has a 19% approval of Rs here, just as i don't believe he only has 86% of Dems or <40% of Indies

[wbrocks67]

Gallup has 56-42

https://news.gallup.com/poll/351521/job-approval-biden-steady-congress-down.aspx

including +13 among Indies

[wbrocks67]

Harris having positive fav & approval in Fox News & YouGov is really going against the narrative some people have...

[wbrocks67]

can YouGov stop with these erratic samples? i feel like this is happening a lot lately