Arizona megathread

[wbrocks67]

For whatever reason, Hobbs refuses to share a stage with Lake.

That said, her and Lake just did a town hall on the third that airs on Telemundo this Saturday.

Hobbs said that she doesn’t want to platform Lake, but Lake is getting tons of airtime and coverage that could be going to Hobbs if she was campaigning as visibly. Hiding from the voters just isn’t a good look. I think Hobbs could make an easy case that she’s the better woman for the job, but abstaining from events just comes across as entitled.

I'll give you that she should've done this event (her team claims there was a scheduling conflict), but I still think people seem to be overblowing stuff like this.

Hobbs is just as much out there as Lake is - maybe even more - just check her socials. Not to mention, Hobbs/Dems are spending more $$ on this race as well.

The idea that not going to 1 single event is "hiding from voters" is doing the most, but people seem to be obsessed with giving Lake a ton of credit for really not doing much in this race, while this narrative of Hobbs not doing anything keeps popping up with little proof.

[wbrocks67]

A hot mess. Lake clearly spiralling bc she doesn't know what answer to give on abortion.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1578049130189885441

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1578065209515823105

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1578801145165725696

[wbrocks67]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

[wbrocks67]

Republicans made it seem like the country was hell on earth specifically in the summer of 2020; a lot of rewriting history here

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1579232455210733570

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Except that's clearly not where Hobbs stands and that's not what she said, either.

Republicans trying to do this whole "abortion after birth" thing is just stupid, and it's clearly b/c they're flailing on abortion themselves. In Lake's own interview, she wouldn't even answer the question straight - because she knows her position is toxic in a GE.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Hobbs was given an opportunity by Major Garrett of CBS News to indicate support for at least some kind of week-based restriction, but she refused to do so and reiterated the generic Democratic position that abortion decisions should be "left between a woman and her doctor", and that late pregnancies are terminated only because "something terrible has gone wrong."

Which ... most rational and normal people know. If anyone honestly thinks there are "abortions after birth" or people getting abortions at 23 weeks for the fun of it, then they were never voting for a Democrat to begin with. The entire "Lake says YOU'RE extreme on abortion" thing is just a ridiculous talking point for the press to both sides yet another issue.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Hobbs was given an opportunity by Major Garrett of CBS News to indicate support for at least some kind of week-based restriction, but she refused to do so and reiterated the generic Democratic position that abortion decisions should be "left between a woman and her doctor", and that late pregnancies are terminated only because "something terrible has gone wrong."

Which ... most rational and normal people know. If anyone honestly thinks there are "abortions after birth" or people getting abortions at 23 weeks for the fun of it, then they were never voting for a Democrat to begin with. The entire "Lake says YOU'RE extreme on abortion" thing is just a ridiculous talking point for the press to both sides yet another issue.

If this is the case, then how can it hurt the Democrats to explicitly support a week-based abortion ban. A 15-week ban? Or a 20-week ban? And a ban that includes the typical exceptions? I certainly think Republicans are distorting the issue, and exaggerating what takes place in later stages of the pregnancy. But the Democrats have adopted an entirely "hands off" approach to abortion that is far more progressive than the "safe, legal, and rare" approach of decades past. They are not comfortable with measures such as parental notification or parental consent laws either.

The point is the "bans" in general! Yes, most people if they had to choose would pick some type of week length, but the entire point of all of this is that this should not be something decided by politicians - that's the point she's making. People keep throwing out these arbitrary week markers when the point is that Republicans and anyone else shouldn't be making those decisions.

Lake literally only does this as a distraction from her own extreme views, which she has now been forced to somewhat back off of, depending on the day, because now her views have been all over the place, and in this particular interview, she couldn't even express where she draws the line either, but also supports the statewide ban.

Again, no reasonable person sees Lake flip-flopping on where she stands (after supporting a total ban) and then trying to make Hobbs the "extreme one" as persuasive imo.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Hobbs was given an opportunity by Major Garrett of CBS News to indicate support for at least some kind of week-based restriction, but she refused to do so and reiterated the generic Democratic position that abortion decisions should be "left between a woman and her doctor", and that late pregnancies are terminated only because "something terrible has gone wrong."

Which ... most rational and normal people know. If anyone honestly thinks there are "abortions after birth" or people getting abortions at 23 weeks for the fun of it, then they were never voting for a Democrat to begin with. The entire "Lake says YOU'RE extreme on abortion" thing is just a ridiculous talking point for the press to both sides yet another issue.

If this is the case, then how can it hurt the Democrats to explicitly support a week-based abortion ban. A 15-week ban? Or a 20-week ban? And a ban that includes the typical exceptions? I certainly think Republicans are distorting the issue, and exaggerating what takes place in later stages of the pregnancy. But the Democrats have adopted an entirely "hands off" approach to abortion that is far more progressive than the "safe, legal, and rare" approach of decades past. They are not comfortable with measures such as parental notification or parental consent laws either.

The point is the "bans" in general! Yes, most people if they had to choose would pick some type of week length, but the entire point of all of this is that this should not be something decided by politicians - that's the point she's making. People keep throwing out these arbitrary week markers when the point is that Republicans and anyone else shouldn't be making those decisions.

Lake literally only does this as a distraction from her own extreme views, which she has now been forced to somewhat back off of, depending on the day, because now her views have been all over the place, and in this particular interview, she couldn't even express where she draws the line either, but also supports the statewide ban.

Again, no reasonable person sees Lake flip-flopping on where she stands (after supporting a total ban) and then trying to make Hobbs the "extreme one" as persuasive imo.

I perfectly understand what she is saying, but why is it that abortion is the one particular issue where Democrats believe that the government should take a completely hands off approach? I don't understand that. But as to whether or not "reasonable people" view this as persuasive, we'll have to see what happens next month. I'll just say that Democrats could have nominated someone more disciplined and formidable than Hobbs, who is very much in jeopardy of losing this particular election.

Well it's Arizona in a Biden midterm, so I don't really think anyone else would've been doing much better

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Hobbs was given an opportunity by Major Garrett of CBS News to indicate support for at least some kind of week-based restriction, but she refused to do so and reiterated the generic Democratic position that abortion decisions should be "left between a woman and her doctor", and that late pregnancies are terminated only because "something terrible has gone wrong."

Which ... most rational and normal people know. If anyone honestly thinks there are "abortions after birth" or people getting abortions at 23 weeks for the fun of it, then they were never voting for a Democrat to begin with. The entire "Lake says YOU'RE extreme on abortion" thing is just a ridiculous talking point for the press to both sides yet another issue.

If this is the case, then how can it hurt the Democrats to explicitly support a week-based abortion ban. A 15-week ban? Or a 20-week ban? And a ban that includes the typical exceptions? I certainly think Republicans are distorting the issue, and exaggerating what takes place in later stages of the pregnancy. But the Democrats have adopted an entirely "hands off" approach to abortion that is far more progressive than the "safe, legal, and rare" approach of decades past. They are not comfortable with measures such as parental notification or parental consent laws either.

The point is the "bans" in general! Yes, most people if they had to choose would pick some type of week length, but the entire point of all of this is that this should not be something decided by politicians - that's the point she's making. People keep throwing out these arbitrary week markers when the point is that Republicans and anyone else shouldn't be making those decisions.

Lake literally only does this as a distraction from her own extreme views, which she has now been forced to somewhat back off of, depending on the day, because now her views have been all over the place, and in this particular interview, she couldn't even express where she draws the line either, but also supports the statewide ban.

Again, no reasonable person sees Lake flip-flopping on where she stands (after supporting a total ban) and then trying to make Hobbs the "extreme one" as persuasive imo.

I perfectly understand what she is saying, but why is it that abortion is the one particular issue where Democrats believe that the government should take a completely hands off approach? I don't understand that. But as to whether or not "reasonable people" view this as persuasive, we'll have to see what happens next month. I'll just say that Democrats could have nominated someone more disciplined and formidable than Hobbs, who is very much in jeopardy of losing this particular election.

Well it's Arizona in a Biden midterm, so I don't really think anyone else would've been doing much better

I would disagree with that. But at any rate, abortion has always been a policy where I've had considerable disagreement with the Democratic platform, and one where I think the Democrats could adopt a more moderate, pragmatic approach than the one which they currently take.

Not sure I understand. Nobody - any Dem - is advocating for late term abortions. Democrats advocate for the right to choose what is best for yourself in your situation. I'm confused as to how you're not more upset with the GOP's extreme approach of banning it outright and taking the right away from people to make their own decisions.

[wbrocks67]

Kinzinger endorsed Hobbs too.

[wbrocks67]

So Hobbs is now doing some town hall with PBS next week and now Lake is having an absolute melt down over it

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1580342007024611329

[wbrocks67]

I do think it's a bit funny how there was an uproar when Sinema was followed into a bathroom (rightfully so) but this sh*t is okay?

Not to mention, Lake having to be reduced to using *Project Veritas* doesn't really speak highly of her campaign/herself or that she thinks she's winning.

[wbrocks67]

Here's a NBC News article about the Arizona gubernatorial election. Many of Hobbs' supporters are concerned that Lake is "outshining" Hobbs, and believe that Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake was an unforced error on her part. They are concerned that Hobbs has not been campaigning vigorously enough, whereas Lake has been traveling all over the state and has a packed campaign schedule. Moreover, there is a danger that Lake and her surrogates could outspend Hobbs, with regards to advertisements, in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Hobbs, of course, is hoping that the abortion issue (and Lake's hardline stances on it), will benefit her, and she is counting on the "McCain Republicans", who will be crucial to any victory of hers. She has also argued that Lake is making no effort to appeal to swing voters. But on balance, there are concerns from within Hobbs' own campaign about the trajectory of this race, and these are concerns that should not be ignored.

It's not a Democratic campaign if the Democrats in each state/race are not bed-wetting over everything

[wbrocks67]

Here's a NBC News article about the Arizona gubernatorial election. Many of Hobbs' supporters are concerned that Lake is "outshining" Hobbs, and believe that Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake was an unforced error on her part. They are concerned that Hobbs has not been campaigning vigorously enough, whereas Lake has been traveling all over the state and has a packed campaign schedule. Moreover, there is a danger that Lake and her surrogates could outspend Hobbs, with regards to advertisements, in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Hobbs, of course, is hoping that the abortion issue (and Lake's hardline stances on it), will benefit her, and she is counting on the "McCain Republicans", who will be crucial to any victory of hers. She has also argued that Lake is making no effort to appeal to swing voters. But on balance, there are concerns from within Hobbs' own campaign about the trajectory of this race, and these are concerns that should not be ignored.

It's not a Democratic campaign if the Democrats in each state/race are not bed-wetting over everything

Again, it would not be wise to ignore these concerns. The Democrats (and at least one "McCain Republican" supporting Hobbs) quoted in this article obviously support her, and want her to win. They believes Hobbs needs to be more vigorous in pressing her case to the voters. It is not a wise strategy to allow for Lake to monopolize the media. One also has to keep in mind that Hobbs didn't debate her primary opponent either, so that gives reason to doubt her motivations for not debating Lake.

I don't necessarily buy the Lake monopolizing the media - because every one of her TV hits or press conferences - like the one she did yesterday - come off unhinged. I would say that the article is right that she's clearly not going after any swing voters at all. Hobbs also appears to be going across the state and doing her own campaigning.

I think this all comes down to demeanor. People assume because Lake is a more brash personality that she's everywhere, while Hobbs, because she's quieter and unassuming, gets the narrative that she's not doing anything because she's not raising as much hell as Lake is. Lake may get more headlines, but I wouldn't assume that that is doing her a lot of favors, either. You could argue just like Trump - he was in the news all the time, but when he's in the news, it's not a great day for him or Team R.

Not to mention, the whole debate thing remains a very beltway-type issue imo. Look at recent debates, with Johnson, Masters, Vance, etc. Ryan, Barnes, and Kelly are all good debaters - and their opponents to varying degrees. But most people still ended up calling all of them a draw or people just stuck to their sides. If Ryan didn't "win" that debate against Vance, then Hobbs won't "win" it against Lake. I'm all for debates and believe you should do at least one, but at the end of the day, it's not like it's going to do much.

[wbrocks67]

I was told Lake was running the superior campaign though?

Not sure why people on here are obsessed with Lake allegedly running some grand campaign when every stop along the way has been a total hot mess.

https://twitter.com/KyungLahCNN/status/1580655469713977345

[wbrocks67]

Every day I'm getting more depressed about this race.  If Hobbs loses, which it's looking more and more likely she will, she needs to be drummed out of AZ politics (and preferably the state) for good.  She's blowing this race right and left, and it's sad that nobody better stepped up and ran.

And yet I still dare to hope Hobbs might win.  If "Roevember" (eye roll) becomes a thing, or if just enough people wake up and see how batsh**t nuts Qari Lake is, there's still hope.  But I'm afraid we're getting to the point where desperate hope is ALL there is.

Regardless, I don't think there's any chance of a blowout win by Lake.  As we've mentioned, she's making virtually no effort to reach out to the middle or moderate.  But all she needs is a plurality to get in there and wreak God knows what kind of havoc here.

But how? Leftists online want to just keep running with this narrative and yet where's the proof? She's out campaigning, she's on TV (I've seen multiple hits just this week), the DGA/Hobbs campaign together are out maneuvering Lake/RGA on the air, it was 2:1 most recently in terms of spend.

Meanwhile, Lake is out here embarrassing herself most days with ridiculous stunts and press conferences, of which who is the target here other than hardcore Republicans?

I'm not in Arizona, but it feels like the narrative that some want to say about this race is much different than what is actually happening in reality. Not sure what else Hobbs should be doing that she's not doing now? She's not a bombastic personality and never has been, and I don't think anybody wants her to be.

You could make the exact same argument that Lake is "blowing" this race by not moderating whatsoever and relying on pure stunts for attention. Getting attention does not mean you are getting ahead in a race.

[wbrocks67]

Every day I'm getting more depressed about this race.  If Hobbs loses, which it's looking more and more likely she will, she needs to be drummed out of AZ politics (and preferably the state) for good.  She's blowing this race right and left, and it's sad that nobody better stepped up and ran.

And yet I still dare to hope Hobbs might win.  If "Roevember" (eye roll) becomes a thing, or if just enough people wake up and see how batsh**t nuts Qari Lake is, there's still hope.  But I'm afraid we're getting to the point where desperate hope is ALL there is.

Regardless, I don't think there's any chance of a blowout win by Lake.  As we've mentioned, she's making virtually no effort to reach out to the middle or moderate.  But all she needs is a plurality to get in there and wreak God knows what kind of havoc here.

But how? Leftists online want to just keep running with this narrative and yet where's the proof? She's out campaigning, she's on TV (I've seen multiple hits just this week), the DGA/Hobbs campaign together are out maneuvering Lake/RGA on the air, it was 2:1 most recently in terms of spend.

Meanwhile, Lake is out here embarrassing herself most days with ridiculous stunts and press conferences, of which who is the target here other than hardcore Republicans?

I'm not in Arizona, but it feels like the narrative that some want to say about this race is much different than what is actually happening in reality. Not sure what else Hobbs should be doing that she's not doing now? She's not a bombastic personality and never has been, and I don't think anybody wants her to be.

You could make the exact same argument that Lake is "blowing" this race by not moderating whatsoever and relying on pure stunts for attention. Getting attention does not mean you are getting ahead in a race.

You're gonna OD if you take any more copium. Hobbs has been running from debates and any confrontation. It portrays her as weak and flaky whereas Lake is projecting strength by calling her out and challenging her. Arizona went for Biden but it isn't exactly a liberal state. Despite what you or I may think of her positions, AZ voters probably aren't THAT turned off by them, at least not as much as they were by Trump's flat unstable personality. Hobbs is doing everything she can to blow this race and it looks like she's going to. Watching the TV appearances where she's pressed on the debate issue is downright painful.

lol okay yea, i'm sure they're totally fine with abortion bans and 2020 election denial. nice try!

[wbrocks67]

And yet Lake openly campaigning with someone like Finchem is not being treated as an issue or harmful to her campaign - and yet Hobbs is the one making all the mistakes? It's like some of you want Lake to win at this point.

[wbrocks67]

And yet Lake openly campaigning with someone like Finchem is not being treated as an issue or harmful to her campaign - and yet Hobbs is the one making all the mistakes? It's like some of you want Lake to win at this point.

Hardly anyone on here does want for Lake to win, and it's been pointed out, time and time again, that Democrats in Arizona are not confident about Hobbs' campaign and believe that she has made a series of unforced errors that have given Lake an advantage. Your belief is that Hobbs is running a strong and persuasive campaign, but if this is the case, why hasn't she put this race away?

Because this is Arizona, a purple state that still went for Trump by 5 in 2016 and just barely by Biden in 2020? Nobody is "Putting anyone away" in a state like this, that idea is just kind of preposterous.

And you're putting words in my mouth. I'm willing to have a nuanced take of this race. Hobbs is not running a "strong" campaign, but she's also not running the worst campaign of all time like some people here like to act with their overdramatics. But it seems like no one is willing to meet in the middle here.

[wbrocks67]

Exhibit 1004035 with this interview on CNN this morning. Lake is a complete hot mess who continues to lie about just about everything.

But yes, she is clearly running a great campaign!

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1581639837219553282

[wbrocks67]

And yet Lake openly campaigning with someone like Finchem is not being treated as an issue or harmful to her campaign - and yet Hobbs is the one making all the mistakes? It's like some of you want Lake to win at this point.

Hardly anyone on here does want for Lake to win, and it's been pointed out, time and time again, that Democrats in Arizona are not confident about Hobbs' campaign and believe that she has made a series of unforced errors that have given Lake an advantage. Your belief is that Hobbs is running a strong and persuasive campaign, but if this is the case, why hasn't she put this race away?

Because this is Arizona, a purple state that still went for Trump by 5 in 2016 and just barely by Biden in 2020? Nobody is "Putting anyone away" in a state like this, that idea is just kind of preposterous.

And you're putting words in my mouth. I'm willing to have a nuanced take of this race. Hobbs is not running a "strong" campaign, but she's also not running the worst campaign of all time like some people here like to act with their overdramatics. But it seems like no one is willing to meet in the middle here.

I don't think she's running the "worst campaign of all time", but she's made mistakes, which people have called her out for, and which she is not remedying. But your belief is that Hobbs is running a better campaign than Lake and that Lake is unelectable. It would not be a competitive race if that were the case.

Never said Lake was unelectable. She shouldn't be, but this is a swing state after all.

[wbrocks67]

Lake is now.. begging Hobbs to debate her on The View.

I can't take this campaign seriously.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1581508375069663234?t=adkMmXPnqdkT0PQV05wKXw...

[wbrocks67]

Y'all want to get on me for defending Hobbs, when some of you defend every move Lake does as if she's not running a dumpster fire of a campaign...