Arizona megathread

[wbrocks67]

I think Lake has a decent shot at winning, but the whole "Hobbs is running a historically bad campaign" seems like the kind of thing that's not going to age very well, like it's more based on 'vibes' than anything concrete.

This. I followed Hobbs on Twitter b/c I was curious what she was up to. She's definitely not a flashy candidate and I wish she was more forceful, but she's definitely been out there and doing the grunt work.

[wbrocks67]

I think I've seen everything on this forum now when suddenly a candidate running no ads for the GE is a good decision.

The galaxy brain people are bending themselves into to act like Lake is running a formidable campaign.

Also, I think her name ID seems a bit overrated - she was only an anchor in one of the media markets.

That's like saying that all of Pennsylvania knows Jim Gardner just because he's a legend in the *Philly area*

[wbrocks67]

Also, I think her name ID seems a bit overrated - she was only an anchor in one of the media markets.

That's like saying that all of Pennsylvania knows Jim Gardner just because he's a legend in the *Philly area*

You realize that Maricopa County is home to over 60% of the state's population...

I think Lake is insane and I don't want her to be the governor, but Hobbs really needs to get her s**t together.

Guess what? Democrats can and do run bad campaigns.

My point is that a lot of the conjecture around Hobbs running such a bad campaign isn't really backed up by a lot of evidence. Meanwhile, Lake is not even running ads on TV and yet she's supposedly running a better campaign for... reasons? Come on.

[wbrocks67]

Also, I think her name ID seems a bit overrated - she was only an anchor in one of the media markets.

That's like saying that all of Pennsylvania knows Jim Gardner just because he's a legend in the *Philly area*

You realize that Maricopa County is home to over 60% of the state's population...

I think Lake is insane and I don't want her to be the governor, but Hobbs really needs to get her s**t together.

Guess what? Democrats can and do run bad campaigns.

My point is that a lot of the conjecture around Hobbs running such a bad campaign isn't really backed up by a lot of evidence. Meanwhile, Lake is not even running ads on TV and yet she's supposedly running a better campaign for... reasons? Come on.

Stop… you say this every post. There IS evidence.

1) She’s typically under-running Kelly by 4-5 points.

2) If Kari is so weak and Hobbs is running a good/ not bad campaign, Lake should be posting Christine O’Donnell/Todd Akin numbers and Hobbs should be starting to pull away with this. She’s not. If Hobbs were running a decent campaign, Lake should be considered toxic/radioactive by now to the Sinema/Biden/Kelly voters of recent years… she’s not.

3) Almost every Arizonan here keeps saying Hobbs is a mediocre candidate and campaigner.

I say this and WANT her to win. I voted Robson in the primary since I knew this was not going to be a fun GE.

Well yes, Kelly is an incumbent so I don't expect her to match his numbers. Arizona is literally freshly purple, so why would Hobbs be "running away with this"? Lake is a psychopath but she's not going to get blown out - anyone thinking that is being delusional.

Please tell me where Lake is running a good campaign. Once again, this thread is trying to convince me that even things like Lake spending $0 on TV is a good campaign move that is helping her.

There seems to be this very odd thing of giving Lake so much credit when in reality she's running a horrific GE campaign.

[wbrocks67]

Masters doesn't seem to realize he's probably doing Hobbs a favor here by getting involved.

https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1571595144088162304

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1571850756080238592

[wbrocks67]

I mean, it's still a net positive in that poll overall, at 50/46, and Independents are even higher, 52/42. Even gets 24% of Republicans.

You're likely to find 55+ everywhere probably disapproving, because most of them either don't understand or don't agree because they don't understand.

[wbrocks67]

Hobbs needs to go full throttle with this and hit Lake on every front.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1573451608452538368

[wbrocks67]

Looks like Hobbs' team was ready for this

https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1573373383529484296

[wbrocks67]

Huh, I wonder if Hobbs and Cheney would end up appearing together. Hobbs is pretty inoffensive to someone like Cheney in terms of partisanship, so that could be really interesting.

[wbrocks67]

Huh, I wonder if Hobbs and Cheney would end up appearing together. Hobbs is pretty inoffensive to someone like Cheney in terms of partisanship, so that could be really interesting.

I would advise against touting Cheney’s support, since that probably won’t earn the Democrats a significant amount of votes (remember that John Kasich’s support of Biden in 2020 wasn’t anywhere near enough to deliver Ohio to Biden).

I mean, I don't think it would hurt though? I feel like it's definitely something that can help bolster with Independents, possibly. I wouldn't say it's that impactful to "delivering" anything for Hobbs, but I still think it could be a net positive.

[wbrocks67]

So out of touch it hurts.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1574045414831038465

[wbrocks67]

So Lake is apparently putting $7.5M behind that ad, with help from Yuma County GOP. They must be fronting a lot of the bill, because last I saw, Lake had only raised a few million herself.

Also interesting, RGA has spent $4M hitting Hobbs with negative ads according to the NBC article on that ad, and yet Hobbs' favorables still seem in tact.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly Hobbs should just run her own TV appearances as ads then

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1574555598716272662

[wbrocks67]

One of the stranger attacks on Hobbs recently has been a story about her not reporting income from her Uber side gig in 2016.

I don’t know why Hobbs isn’t running with the story. It really humanizes her. Kinda blows my mind that our Secretary of State was chaffeuring people around Phoenix five years ago to support her family. I would like to see more of that side of Katie—I think it would endear people to her.

IIRC, I think she is - I saw some video she posted the other day about it

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1575252480824291328

Sigh. Lol

Given that poll is an R+10 sample it's not that bad for the Ds lol

[wbrocks67]

Last two elections have followed the reg too, I think they have been R+3 and R+4

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SollenbergerRC/status/1575809663861334016

[wbrocks67]

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

The calculus is clearly that Lake will walk all over Hobbs or embarrass her in the debate. Hobbs is very timid and by the book and will wilt if Lake raises stuff like the racial discrimination lawsuit.

At the same time, Hobbs also says Lake spews lies that make debating impossible. I guess that is, pardon the pun, debatable, but there’s more to her decision than just that (it’s also the above).

I agree with you, though, that it is cowardly, and that if Hobbs were well prepared and confident she could expose Lake as a fraud. Alas, that will not happen before Nov and we will be stuck with this highly irritating race that she potentially loses (probably loses? I am more down on this race than most, as I get a lot of bad vibes, Hillary vs Trump ish flashbacks).

I mean, not to Hobbs's fault, she probably would still lose the debate even if she was a great debater. Lake is insane but she has decades of media training. Even if Hobbs was fantastic in a debate, it wouldn't be easy to just "expose Lake as a fraud"

[wbrocks67]

Can somebody please explain to me the issues with Katie Hobbs' campaign? Not trying to be snarky or claim they don't exist - it's just been repeated here and in media and I don't know what is driving it. I know she has the racial discrimination lawsuit baggage and the debate dodge has left a bad taste in people's mouths here, but I don't really see either of those as reflective of her campaign being disorganized/incompetent/undisciplined.

Thank you. There's a lot of "Hobbs is running a terrible campaign" but it appears more of just a narrative that people online have created versus what is actually happening in reality.

Hobbs is apparently running a horrific campaign and yet in most of the AZ polls, she's had the top net favorability among all 4 candidates.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1576978924671680519

[wbrocks67]

Looks like Dems are still spending more in this race.

Both parties have upped their spending investment by at least 40% over the last two weeks, with Republicans spending $1.3 million and Democrats spending $2.4 million. Virtually all the spending has come from state parties, the candidates themselves or the Republican Governors Association.

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/texas-arizona-top-list-competitive-gubernatorial-races-seeing-influx-n-rcna50668

[wbrocks67]

Trying to pull a fast one like Masters did. Must not like the polling.

https://twitter.com/LaurieRoberts/status/1577439123261992960

[wbrocks67]

Cheney essentially endorses Hobbs

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1577957410790154241