Arizona megathread

[wbrocks67]

Given that Biden's unpopular in Arizona, I think it's wise for Lake to make it a referendum on him rather than herself.

Donald Trump is arguably likely even more unpopular in AZ than Biden is right now.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah I seriously don't think Finchem will win. He's literally the most extreme candidate in the entire country at this point, and that's saying something.

[wbrocks67]

This is the state I am dooming the most about. Katie Hobbs needs to step up her game and start hitting the campaign trail. Thus far, she has run a nonexistent campaign.

She’s been on the trail for much of the past two weeks. What are you talking about?

She doesn’t seem to be as visible as Kari Lake.

Probably because Hobbs appears to be doing normal campaign stops and Lake just gets free publicity for saying crazy sh*t all day

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1560705864448737281

[wbrocks67]

Katie Hobbs is apparently trying to duck the debate.  I don't think that's a very good idea.  I understand that she's probably leery of the fact that Kari Lake is charismatic and extremely comfortable in front of a camera, but she's still espousing loony BS and with any sort of prep Hobbs should be able to expose her.

Running from the debate would send a really bad sign to the electorate and give Lake a huge line of attack.  Hobbs got away with doing it in the primary because she was a prohibitive favorite, but I don't think that will work here.  The debate will have a huge audience, and Hobbs absolutely needs to take the opportunity to try and inject some sanity.

Where is the evidence that she's trying to do this though? I'd be extremely surprised if she - or any GE candidate anywhere in the country - thought that would be a good idea.

[wbrocks67]

Katie Hobbs is apparently trying to duck the debate.  I don't think that's a very good idea.  I understand that she's probably leery of the fact that Kari Lake is charismatic and extremely comfortable in front of a camera, but she's still espousing loony BS and with any sort of prep Hobbs should be able to expose her.

Running from the debate would send a really bad sign to the electorate and give Lake a huge line of attack.  Hobbs got away with doing it in the primary because she was a prohibitive favorite, but I don't think that will work here.  The debate will have a huge audience, and Hobbs absolutely needs to take the opportunity to try and inject some sanity.

Where is the evidence that she's trying to do this though? I'd be extremely surprised if she - or any GE candidate anywhere in the country - thought that would be a good idea.

Here's one link: https://www.azfamily.com/2022/08/19/why-there-may-not-be-an-arizona-gubernatorial-debate-this-year/

It's not set in stone, she's kind of going with that mealy-mouthed "I want to debate but not if she's going to make a circus out of it..."  That won't fly with the voters.  The general-election debates in Arizona have been on the public access channel for as long as I can remember, and they've always been pretty standard.  The primary was sort of a cluster, but it was a group thing.

I mean, that's not really saying she won't debate. She's just saying that she doesn't want Lake to pull any stunts, and that's understandable, just look at PA-GOV where Mastriano is currently pulling stunts with their debate.

[wbrocks67]

See, this is the same playbook that Oz, Mastriano, etc. are all employing. They try and get out their "first" with nonsensical debate requirements before debates have even been solidified, and either request too many (Oz wants 5) or ridiculous specifics (Mastriano and Shapiro both picking a moderator each)... stuff like this is can't even be taken seriously. It's literally just to cause waves, and so when Hobbs or whoever doesn't respond to Lake's whacko video in 24 hours, they act like their opponent is scared to debate or something. It's the same old lame play

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1561413925496713216

[wbrocks67]

Hobbs is still kicking and screaming about the debate with Lake. Why is this campaign run by idiots? They should literally be like, “We are so ready to debate the fraud Kari Lake, who has lied for two years, spread mistruths about 2020, and lives in a world where Donald Trump is still president.”

Instead, they look pathetic. Sigh. If she loses, it’s on her, full stop. Grow a freaking backbone. I’m sick of these loser freaks running the Democratic Party.

How is Katie Hobbs "running the Democratic party"?

[wbrocks67]

If Fontes is actually leading in the SOS race, Hobbs and Kelly are probably better positioned.

Yes and no.  Kelly is clearly in the driver's seat in his race and will likely lead the AZ Democratic ticket this year, but I think Fontes will probably outrun Hobbs by a few points.

I don’t think a Lake/Fontes/Hamadeh/Kelly victory is impossible by any means. There’s probably some low info Lake voters who may vote D on some down ballot races.

If Lake wins it’s because it’s a wave. Let’s dispel with this fiction that her being a former news anchor will magically wave away all the stupid sh**t she’s done in the primary and beyond hollering about the election being stolen.

I’m not underestimating the stupidity of voters. Hobbs seems to consistently underperform Kelly, and Lake actually has leads in some polls (albeit narrowly).

Hobbs is likely going to underperform Kelly simply b/c Kelly is an A+ candidate and an incumbent.

Also, Lake has only lead 1 recent poll

[wbrocks67]

Did we ever get updates on how much Hobbs and Lake have fundraised? The entire race feels like it goes under the radar in that department, or even RGA/DGA investment?

[wbrocks67]

I mean, I'd also like to see her debate at least once, but people really overrate these things. Unless you have a photo of Lake and an empty podium for Hobbs, most normal people don't care about this. Just look at the hullabaloo from Oz about Fetterman and that news cycle lasted a day at most.

I do think Hobbs needs to ramp up her campaign - she appears to be getting out there and talking to voters but doesn't seem to be doing actual rallies or big campaign type stuff. A debate would actually have helped her expose Lake for the loon she is, but maybe their calculus is that it just gives Lake more time to spew her nonsense.

Hobbs seems to be kind of giving Lake the Warnock/Walker treatment. (how Warnock has been way too nice to Walker up to this point instead of exposing him). She meanwhile needs to give Lake the Oz treatment instead.

[wbrocks67]

Im just going to go ahead and call the election for Lake at this point. Hobbs is running a dreadful campaign.

Lake is running a dreadful campaign. I could argue the same thing about her - what has she done since winning the primary?

[wbrocks67]

Lol at the Atlas hive-mind declaring Hobbs DOA after one news cycle in September. Meanwhile, all respectable polling has put her at least a few points ahead of Lake and there's absolutely zero scenario where Kelly wins w/o Hobbs imo.

Yeah, this whole "Hobbs is DOA, running a terrible campaign" seems built on no actual facts, considering we've had 3 polls of this race since mid-August and the most credible outlet (Fox) had Hobbs up by 3.

I'm not gonna say Hobbs is running some fantastic A+ campaign but she's pretty much been out there talking to voters and has been running TV ads. I'd like to see her with a bit more exposure, but we'll see if she kicks it into higher gear now that Labor Day has come and gone.

From what I can tell, Lake hasn't been doing much of anything. Has she been out campaigning or running ads?

[wbrocks67]

Hobbs getting local news media attention. While she's not getting flashy updates on Twitter, at least she's getting local coverage for being out there. I think that's where there's a disconnect from people on Twitter acting as if she's not doing anything.

https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1567292473457930241

[wbrocks67]

I think the only way not debating actually has an impact is if you can have a visual with it - i.e., Ossoff standing alone with an empty podium. So I get why Lake would want to do that.

Can't imagine Hobbs will let that happen though. That would be serious campaign malpractice.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly Hobbs should just pay for these videos to be run nonstop on TV at this point. Lake does the work for her

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1567693142987513856

[wbrocks67]

What is Hobbs playing at? She's an idiot, and she's going to cost us the 2024 election.

I mean, unless there is still going to be an event where Lake stands next to an empty podium, this is not going to matter. Voters don't really seem to care that much about debates like this.

[wbrocks67]

At this point, Hobbs probably has the same chance of winning as Stacey Abrams.

No?

LMAO the way this race is being positioned online is just completely different than the reality of this race. All this talk of "Hobbs running a terrible campaign!" when she's still up slightly in the average and still seems to be doing more campaigning and ad-running than Lake is.

[wbrocks67]

At this point, Hobbs probably has the same chance of winning as Stacey Abrams.

No?

LMAO the way this race is being positioned online is just completely different than the reality of this race. All this talk of "Hobbs running a terrible campaign!" when she's still up slightly in the average and still seems to be doing more campaigning and ad-running than Lake is.

She's literally refusing to debate her opponent. It's a bad look, period! It makes her look like she has something unsavory to hide or worse that she feels like she is above the idea of debating. And it will register with voters soon, it takes time for stuff like this to get out. When Cunninghams scandal came out it took a while for it to actually affect the polling(the polls were always wrong but I remember several Cunningham +8-9 polls and those numbers rarely appeared after the affair broke out).

Comparing Cunninghams scandal to ... not doing a debate is a ridiculous comparison and you know it.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not sure how this is a good look for Hobbs. Even though Lake is an election denier, it would benefit Hobbs to point out the absurdity of that claim rather than run from it. Now there is a good shot an election denier could win Arizona, which will undoubtedly be a swing state in 2024.

The way people here really think one single gubernatorial debate is going to swing an election...

[wbrocks67]

What a mess of a candidate Hobbs is turning out to be. She is gonna lose this race against that nutcase Lake

Agreed. I’m calling the election likely R at this point.

The most hilarious part about this narrative is the idea that Lake is running some top tier campaign. Where is the evidence of this? Hobbs is doing nothing to actively hurt herself. This forum for whatever reason acts as if Lake is some genius politician with tons of ads and appearances and Hobbs has not been seen in public in 3 months

[wbrocks67]

I think the issue with Hobbs and the debate has less to do with her doing the debate itself, though she lacks the excuse that Fetterman had, but more because it lets Lake characterize her as a "coward" or that she's hiding something from voters. It then puts Hobbs on defense and keeps Lake in charge of the election's narrative which should be about Lake and her extreme anti-choice, Big Lie peddling views.

But where though? People outside of Twitter do not care about the debate and unless Lake is running ads calling Hobbs a coward, then where are people hearing that narrative?

Hobbs has a way bigger opening with naturally national news like abortion rights, i.e. Graham today. That kind of stuff makes a lot bigger noise than not doing or doing a debate

[wbrocks67]

She needs to do more Fetterman-ing like this

https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1569855262231777280

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1570887898819624962

Perhaps not an optimal message for a swing state.

It's ironic that she said this, considering that she was part of the media (as a local news anchor) for many years, and that is the reason why she is widely known in Arizona. It's unfortunate that she has such a good chance at winning here, since Hobbs can't campaign her way out of a paper bag.

Except I would argue that Hobbs is actually out there meeting voters and doing things while Lake is simply just saying crazy things. Where is the actual campaigning from Lake?

This entire premise of "Lake says insane things >>>> she's such a good campaigner" is seriously galaxy brain

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1570887898819624962

Perhaps not an optimal message for a swing state.

It's ironic that she said this, considering that she was part of the media (as a local news anchor) for many years, and that is the reason why she is widely known in Arizona. It's unfortunate that she has such a good chance at winning here, since Hobbs can't campaign her way out of a paper bag.

Except I would argue that Hobbs is actually out there meeting voters and doing things while Lake is simply just saying crazy things. Where is the actual campaigning from Lake?

This entire premise of "Lake says insane things >>>> she's such a good campaigner" is seriously galaxy brain

I'm not saying that Lake is a good candidate. She would not be saying insane things such as this if she were. But Hobbs isn't a strong candidate either, and someone like Stanton would probably be faring better against Lake at this point. I know that you don't think Hobbs' decision not to debate Lake makes no difference, but that would have been the perfect opportunity to expose Lake for what she is.

You don't need a debate to expose her for what she is. She's literally doing that on her own in every single appearance she makes.