2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

Nate Cohn: The races in Arizona and Georgia have not been called by several TV networks, but they’re essentially over. Here's why: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/12/upshot/election-arizona-georgia-results.html

Georgia I guess i get, b/c its officially getting a recount, so they're just waiting for that (even though we all know it won't produce 14K magic votes), but Arizona's recount margin is within <0.1%, so there's no way Trump is making that up with what is left.

[wbrocks67]

More vote out of Allegheny, Biden's lead 54K now statewide.

Joe Biden 3,390,729
Donald Trump 3,336,751

About ~8K provisionals out of Allegheny broke 55-45 for Biden. ~4K provisionals from Delaware Co broke 63-36.

About ~2K more provisionals out of Allegheny. Biden nets another 600k votes. Up 54.6K statewide now.

Joe Biden 3,393,231
Donald Trump 3,338,645

Atleast ~7K more provisionals left in Allegheny, with ~20K left in Philly. Also ~10K mail ins left in Philly/Allegheny.

[wbrocks67]

Trump has been mathematically eliminated from AZ. Why it still hasn't been called is ridiculous.

[wbrocks67]

About 4.7K ballots in from Chester County and somewhere else (can't really tell right now, not sure where, doesn't appear to be anywhere else from SEPA/Allegheny etc) and 3K went to Biden and 1.7K to Trump.

Joe Biden 3,396,828
Donald Trump 3,341,303

Biden now up 55,525 in Pennsylvania.

[wbrocks67]

Is there still little to no chance Biden pulls ahead in North Carolina?

It really depends on how many votes are out, and it seems like there has been varying answers. I thought someone said as of last week there was over 100,000 mails in to count, but then on 538 they only talked about 40k provisionals and 30k mail ins that had been returned (but there was up to 90K that hadn't been returned yet), so I honestly have no idea.

I think there's a good chance Biden could come as close as like <0.5% though

[wbrocks67]

According to PA DOS website, there are still 43K+ mail ins to count in PA, including about half that just out of Philly/Allegheny/Montgomery

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

These do not count provisionals. It appears we got at least 3K provisionals from Chester alone tonight, which leads me to believe we could be seeing 30-40K provisionals out of SEPA at least too.

[wbrocks67]

Is that much in right now from NYC to say that Biden is gonna be 4-6 below Hillary? I thought they had barely started to count.

[wbrocks67]

Biden's lead up to 60,233 in PA.

Joe Biden 3,403,925 (49.81%)
Donald Trump 3,343,692 (48.92%)
Other 86,743 (1.27%)

Philly dumped 4.4K mail-ins, it appears they still have at least ~7K mail-ins left (not including provisionals too)

[wbrocks67]

Posted this in another thread, but here's the schedule for official certification dates:

November 13th
Mississippi

MS will definitely not certify statewide results today.

Only some 10 of 80+ counties have submitted their certified results as of today ...

Yeah, they haven't even bothered counting 200-300K extra ballots and its been over a week...

[wbrocks67]

Waiting for NV, OH, MS, IL, MD to report new mail in totals....

[wbrocks67]

Is that much in right now from NYC to say that Biden is gonna be 4-6 below Hillary? I thought they had barely started to count.

It's a simple matter of Trump doing so well relative to 2016 (currently has more raw votes in every borough than 2016) on the current county from election day + early voting totals (75% of overall vote approximately) that it's nearly impossible for Biden to do better than Clinton in NYC.

Here are the percentages Biden would achieve if every single mail-in vote is counted and goes to Biden:
Bronx - 71.4% (was Clinton+79.1)
Brooklyn - 59.8% (was Clinton+62.0)
Manhattan - 80.4% (was Clinton+76.9)
Queens - 52.7% (was Clinton+53.6)
Staten Island - -4.2% (was Trump+15.1)

Of course there are some provisional ballots to consider as well, so maybe Biden can do a bit better than underperforming Clinton by 4% in NYC, but it's pretty evident Biden is on pace to do worse than she did in Bronx, Brooklyn, and Queens, but could maybe match her performance in Manhattan.

Gotcha, it just seems like only like 5-10% of mail ins have even been counted in NYC, so I feel like it's hard to make conclusions at this point

[wbrocks67]

Another large Republican county in MS, Lamar, has certified results.

About 5.000 votes have been added there since election night to the 23.500

Do we know how the 5k broke?

[wbrocks67]

It seems likely Biden will go above 51.1 and Trump below 47.2 with NY especially still to count.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like Montgomery County finally got around to the rest of their mail-ins and some of their provisionals

~6.3K counted, 4.5K went to Biden and 1.8K to Trump, 71.5-28.5 split. (county at large is 62-36)

Biden lead in PA now up to +63,421.

[wbrocks67]

Popular vote update, per Cook tracker:

Joe Biden 78,629,640 (50.9%)
Donald Trump 73,063,371 (47.3%)

Biden lead is now 5,566,269 (3.6%)

[wbrocks67]

Popular vote update, per Cook tracker:

Joe Biden 78,629,640 (50.9%)
Donald Trump 73,063,371 (47.3%)

Biden lead is now 5,566,269 (3.6%)

The late counted stuff appears to have been more evenly split than expected?  NY absentees will surely put Biden ahead of Obama 2012 (3.9%) once they are done, right?

No, most of it seems Dem as expected. Places like CA and NJ were expected to have more of an R-trend in the later ballots bc of the way things were counted this year. NY absentees seem to be breaking strongly Dem as expected, which should bump his lead up considerably.

There also Dem-leaning mail ins to count (quite a chunk left) in places like OH, MS, MD, IL, etc which with NY should take Biden to 7 million+

[wbrocks67]

I have always thought Biden would win by 4% or a bit more, Clinton had a slight lead over Trump the morning after election day and she won by 2.1%, so she gained roughly 2% over the vote county post election day, Biden had a 2% lead the morning after the election, so if he gains like Clinton he should win by 4%.

Yeah, Nate Silver estimates Biden will likely end up with ~4.4%

[wbrocks67]

Is there any word on when OH is going to count the rest of its ballots? We're past the period of them even accepting late mail ins.

[wbrocks67]

Obama and Bush were in the 40s too. It’s just that there wasn’t a clear majority of people that had a clear opinion about them one way or another. Obama was at 45. Bush was at 45. Their disapproval was also 45. Trump was close or at 45 but had a disapproval at 51 or 52. He only got 47% of the vote.

Relative to their approval ratings in the exit polls, both Bush and Obama underperformed them. They were both at 53-46 approval/disapproval. I've noted that before. A select few may approve and vote against you, but virtually no one will vote for you if they disapprove. I'm not sure what to believe about this year because I have a very hard time believing an exit poll showing that the electorate was giving Trump a net positive 50-49 approval rating. However, it is clear that his approval rating among the electorate was higher than anyone thought before.

Yeah, the CNN exits showing Trump 50/49 seem really questionable. Highly doubt he had 50% approval but only got 46-47% of the vote. Fox's 47/51 seems much more realistic, given that's close to what the final outcome will be.

[wbrocks67]

Biden closing in on 50% in PA with a few new votes from Philly.

Joe Biden 3,419,445 (49.91%)
Donald Trump 3,352,748 (48.94%)
Jo Jorgensen 78,704 (1.15%)

Biden lead: +66,697

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1328041173856956418

Yes. In the same way that Dems needed to understand why Trump won and why he had the support he did among WWC, Trump supporters need to come to terms with why he is so hated and why there were thousands of people dancing in the streets when he lost.

I think it's so funny that there are still pundits out there saying that Biden needs to appeal and understand the 73 million that voted for Trump (which Biden will bc hes a good person and he wants to be a prez for everyone), but yet none of these people were telling Trump in 2016 that he needed to understand the 66 million Hillary voters out there.

[wbrocks67]

~6300 more ballots out of PA, Biden wins them 4135-2157, 66%-34%

His lead has officially crossed 1.00%+

Joe Biden 3,423,580 (49.93%)
Donald Trump 3,354,905 (48.92%)
Jo Jorgensen 78,756 (1.15%)

Biden lead: +68,675

[wbrocks67]

Biden's lead in PA is now up to +69,140. 70K imminent.

Illinois has also dumped more mail ballots, Biden lead up to +17.1%. No more swinging R from 2016. (although AP is showing this... Cook is still showing +16.6)

[wbrocks67]

Biden's lead in PA is now up to +69,140. 70K imminent.

Illinois has also dumped more mail ballots, Biden lead up to +17.1%. No more swinging R from 2016. (although AP is showing this... Cook is still showing +16.6)

What's the outstanding vote count in PA?

Hard to tell... the PA DOS website says about 30K mail ins are left to be counted. Not sure if that's fully accurate though. There is smatterings here and there. Allegheny apparently still has ~5K mail ins and ~5K provisionals still. Philly still has ~7K mail-ins and at least 10-15K provisionals, while some counties like Berks and Lehigh have counted 0 provisionals yet and many counties don't appear to be done yet. I think there's enough out to push Biden's lead up to at least 75-85K. Outside chance at 100K depending on what is out though.

[wbrocks67]

Update: Biden has crossed 51% of the NPV, Trump at 47.3%. He's on track having a larger PV win than Obama '12.

NYS has still 84% counted. That's pathetic. What are they doing?

It doesn't appear that NYC has counted anything either. The topline state #s at Cook/DDHQ/ etc have barely moved.

Likewise, still waiting for OH to start counting any of its additional mail in votes.